Looking for Clarity in the Wood Memorial
By: Tony Bada Bing
The
long, winding and sometimes muddled road to the Kentucky Derby looks for
further clarity on Saturday, hoping to give us a clear second choice behind
Nyquist. Saturday’s $1,000,000 Wood Memorial has the promise of announcing the
likely runner up for the Run for the Roses. Alas, that is not the main reason I
write and maybe you read and then lay down a wager. Sure nailing a Derby
contender atop a $3,000 trifecta payoff is doubly sweet. I would trade that for
a $10,000 trifecta without the favorite, Derby contender, finishing fourth or
worse. But, hey that’s just me.
Let’s
get down to it, since we all only a limited handicapping time:
#1
Shagaf – whether you see it
translated from Arabic as love, passion, a gap or rift, I’m getting a sense of
Derby desire here. I’d expect odds of even money or less by post time for this
three-for-three winner, as he moves from Gotham champ to the Wood’s horse to
beat. He gets the inside post in the eight-horse field and will likely hold the
rail, tracking in second, third or fourth. The fear is if a four-wide duel
ensues at the top of the stretch and then jockey, Irad Ortiz will have to wait,
wait, wait for an opening to run through. Legit.
#2
Adventist – my Gotham pick did what
he always does, contend for a piece of the pie. Too bad this ended up being a
non-threatening third place finish at around 5-1. Seems a cut below the top
choice and a few others. Strictly an underneath play.
#3
Trojan Nation – I’m not a doctor and
haven’t ever played one on TV, but let me give you a little advice: This virgin
to winning has yet to cross the finish line first or get to home plate, if you
prefer, so I’d take a prophylactic approach here. Play him if you must, but
realize the return is likely to be a let down in which no cigarette or nap is
needed afterward.
#4
Tale of S’avall – only a maiden win
and two, far-back fifth place finishes in stakes company does not bode well for
this son of Wood winner, Tale of Ekati. A cutback in distance in next try is
the likely outcome here.
#5
Flexibility – if you like the top
choice, you have to give trainer, Chad Brown’s second Wood entry, a look. He’s
battle-tested, finished second to last week’s Florida Derby second-betting
choice Mohaymen twice and has a win on Aqueduct’s outer course. He’s also
trained with Shagaf on multiple occasions running just as fast the likely
favorite. So, why not throw him mix and even on top of exotics in case Brown’s
top horse falters?
#6
Matt King Coal – has more than just
a cool name going for him. He’s fast. He has run well on a wet track – likely
for Saturday – in a high level maiden race.
He has the aggressive, Jose Ortiz in the saddle, who will likely take
them around the track in front for the first three-quarters of a mile. If he’s
loose and cutting 24-second splits, the “winner likelihood meter” goes up
dramatically for the stretch run. Dangerous.
#7
Dalmore – a California invader that
broke his maiden in his last in his seventh try. Overmatched, likely, but in
what looks like it will be a strung out finish, this son of Colonel John might
just canter home in second or third.
#8
Outwork – appears to be the only
threat to contest Matt King Coal for the lead. Going for the powerful trio of
Repole-Pletcher-Velazquez, he hasn’t run a bad race in three tries with a game,
second place finish in the Tampa Derby in his latest effort. He’s a threat to
track, pounce and open up daylight running down the stretch. If he inherits the
lead willingly…
With
a $100 to bet you have to decide is Shagaf worth playing as the chalk or not.
If you really like him, but don’t see value in the Wood, maybe single him in a
Pick or just watch the race with no money involved. If you think he’s beatable,
put him underneath in a few trifecta plays and off the board all together in case
he stumbles. If he’s off the board your return still won’t be a windfall
because there’s at least two others that will hover around 5-1 and are next
likely to finish first.
Option A: Single #1
Shagaf in Pick 4
Option B: Bet $100 to
win #1 Shagaf, if even money is OK with you
Option C: Play two
trifecta wheels against the favorite. One including him underneath and another
smaller bet in case he’s off-the-board
5-8/All/All - $84 for a
$1 base
5-6-8/5-6-8/2,5,6,7,8
for $18 for a $1 base
So I’m $2 over. Good
luck in however you wager!
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