A Pletcher Exacta in the Gulfstream Park 'Cap?
By: Tom Amello, Trackfacts
Pace
Analysis
Projected
Running Positions:
E = Early
speed/ need the lead
EP = Early
Presser/Front-Half Stalker
P = Front
–Half Stalker
S = Rear-Half
runner/ Closer
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S
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P
|
EP
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E
|
|
3
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2
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
4
|
|
Five
of the seven runners entered are “early speed/early position” running types,
projecting a crowded and contested but not necessarily strong pace. All are
somewhat tactical; none are one-way, need-to-lead, gate-to-wire types. Stanford (1), Valid (5) and Anchor Down (7) have
carried their speed while on the lead to wins or narrow losses in past efforts.
Each has been on the lead at the eighth pole when going longer; each has won
from an up-close stalking position. Itsaknockout (2) is a sustained stalker who
projects to race inside just behind the pace pack. Hesinfront (3) is the lone
deep closer.
The
Field in Post Position Order:
#1 Stanford
(7-2) (Early Presser/Front-Half Stalker)
One
of four runners from trainer Todd Pletcher, Stanford found himself on the 2015
Kentucky Derby trail after two solid efforts over this Gulfstream Park surface
in February & March. He suffered a narrow neck loss in the Grade 2
Louisiana Derby where something must have gone amiss, as he disappeared until
June. He returned from that March-June layoff to deliver a strong effort in the
Easy Goer at Belmont Park and follow that with a win in the Long Branch at
Monmouth. A failed effort in the Curlin at Saratoga sent him back to the bench
until his most recent effort in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper, a decent second
chasing a modest pace.
Stanford
has a history of running well off works and improving next out. He is proven
over this surface, well posted inside, has tactical speed to go to the lead or
comfortably press the pace. He reunites with a winning jockey in Javier
Castellano, who will give him every chance to contend for the win. Stanford’s
9-3-3-0 career record is punctuated by his 2nd in the Grade 2
Louisiana Derby. His off-the-board efforts came at 9F via a DQ after veering
out late in the Islamorada and doing dirty work dueling throughout in the Curlin
stakes. Today’s one-mile suits him better. Stanford has worked twice since
February 6, outworking stable mates Itsaknockout (1) and Anchor Down (7) on
February 20.
While
scratches of other speeds will move him up, Stanford might be vulnerable to
pace dynamics if the race remains intact. Morning line odds of 7-2 are fair to
win, and Stanford is a must use in exotics.
#2 Itsaknockout
(2-1) (Mid-Pack Sustained Stalker)
Another
runner entered by Pletcher. Following a DQ win in the 2015 Grade 2 Fountain of
Youth, Itsaknockout was overmatched in both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies
and taken out of training. Off from May to December, this son of Lemon Drop Kid
returned to take an Optional Claiming/Allowance heat over this track at this
distance, running down a modest pace and easily dispensing six rivals. He
returned February 6 to race evenly in a very slow-paced but wide open edition
of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap finishing in the front-half as the public’s second
betting choice.
Itsaknockout gets a smart cutback to a
distance at which he is 2/2. Last out in the Donn, he was compromised by the pace
dynamics. Itsaknockout gets a much better pace set up this afternoon, benefits
most if the field remains intact and the pace is contested. This proven
sustained runner is the class closer in this field and projects to get a
perfect trip behind a crowded front pack. Regular rider Luis Saez retains the
mount. Itsaknockout is a logical win contender and must use in exotics as the
morning line favorite but is vulnerable to scratches of speed and/or a modest
pace that favors front runners.
#3 Heisinfront (20-1) (Closer)
This
Dale Romans trainee’s most recent win came over a track labeled wet/fast in an
off-the-turf route at Churchill Downs. He has neither won nor finished better
than fourth on dry/fast dirt. Heisinfront
is short on class, short on speed figures and needs a complete pace meltdown to
earn a check.
#4 Blofeld
(6-1) (Presser)
Blofeld
is the third Pletcher. This runner retains the services of jockey John Velazquez.
A lightly raced 4 year-old son of Quality Road, Blofeld has issues, evidenced
by the time he has been given between races. A highly touted juvenile, Blofeld
easily defeated four rivals on debut at Saratoga in mid August of 2014. He
returned in October to take a narrow victory in the Grade 2 Futurity at
Belmont, and crushed rivals one month later over a muddy track in the Grade 2
Nashua at today’s one-mile distance. Returning in April of 2015, Blofeld failed
to handle a quirky, sealed Churchill Downs surface. Following another more than two-month rest
until July 4, he was outrun in the Grade 3 Dwyer and laid up again to rest and
recover.
Blofeld returned at Gulfstream Park on January
27 in a high-priced Optional Claiming/Allowance sprint where, after a rough
start, he showed little in a race he surely needed. Today repeats the winning
pattern, stretching from a 6F sprint to 8F route, which led to his Nashua
victory. But Blofeld entered the Nashua off a sharp effort and narrow win.
Talent is talent and potential is just that. Blofeld’s reputation rests on two
year-old form. He needs a top effort to contend; better limited to exotics.
#5 Valid
(5-2) (Early Presser/Front Half Stalker
Valid
looms the class of this modest Grade 2 field. He gets a class drop following a decent
second at 6-1 in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap, tracking a slow pace throughout. Despite benefiting from a slow race flow, Valid had no resistance in the final furlong
for eventual Grade 1 Donn Handicap winner Mshawish. This gelding also benefits
from cutting back to today’s distance. Valid
is not only proven over Gulfstream’s main track (13-6-4-1) but loves today’s
one mile distance (12-4-2-3). However, trainer Marcus Vitali is 7-1-2-2 in
4&Up Graded Stakes at Gulfstream starting just two horses: Triple Arch earned
show money in the Grade 2 Rampart, and Valid is 5-1-2-1 overall and 3-1-1-1 at
the mile distance.
Tactically,
with speedy gate horses both to his inside in Stanford (1) and to the outside
in Anchor Down (7), one might think jockey Nik Juarez will read the break and
adjust. Note that, except for the Breeders Cup Mile, Juarez has asked Valid to
put himself within a length of the early lead. Also, Itsaknockout’s (2) lack of
gate speed, will allow Castellano to send Stanford (1) if he wants both the
lead and the rail. Anchor Down (7) has sprint speed and might be sent early as
well. If Juarez rides to form, he could find himself dueling with 1 and/or 7
rather than stalking 3rd in the clear behind those two.
Valid
has worked forwardly, earning two bullet works since the Donn, indicating he
continues to hold form. If so, he is very likely to run his race and is a win
contender. A scratch of either speed horse moves him up; he is, however,
vulnerable at short odds to a pace that is strong and contested.
#6 Grande
Shores (12-1) (Closing Sprinter/ ??Router)
Grande
Shores is an 8 year-old gladiator with 54 career starts and a 40-12-12-7 record
over fast/dry tracks. While 36 of those races have been sprints, he has been
sent over a route of ground but four times.
All four have been at today’s distance and three times in Grade 3 heats
over this track, accruing a record of 4-0-2-2. It would appear that trainer
Stanley Gold is judicious about placing Grande Shores where it is possible for
him to earn checks. In his last two efforts, Grande Shores finished 3rd
behind today’s rivals Valid and Stanford. While an unlikely win contender, one
could assume that jockey Edgar Zayas is again riding for a check and should be
limited to deep exotic tickets.
#7 Anchor
Down (6-1) (Early Presser/Stalker)
Anchor
Down, the fourth and final Todd Pletcher entrant, exits the same January 27
sprint as uncoupled stable mate Blofeld. Anchor Down, however, stalked the
moderate pace from the outside, holding well to not lose ground to the
rail-skimming Blofeld. One could argue that Anchor Down showed more and ran a
better race than Blofeld and should improve off that effort. He is a full brother
to Iron Fist, who placed in both the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity as a juvenile and
the Pennsylvania Derby at 3. Anchor Down also has raced three times at 8.5
furlongs around one-turn at Belmont Park, winning one. In each non-winning
effort, he gained the lead at the eighth pole before weakening. While his lone
effort at today’s distance came over a sloppy track he might not have liked,
this son of Tapit has route pedigree. He could be the main speed to catch if
Lezcano opts to send.
The
jockey merry-go-round with the Pletcher runners in this field is interesting.
Castellano abandons Anchor Down to ride the rail horse Stanford (1). Both
Velazquez and Castellano have ridden Stanford (1) and Anchor Down (7).
Velazquez has been the only rider up on Blofeld and opts to remain there. One
should not, however, dismiss the presence of jockey Jose Lezcano aboard Anchor
Down; he has won 32% riding dirt routes for Pletcher (22-7-2-4).
Like
stable mate Blofeld, Anchor Down steps up in class this afternoon. He has worked
sharply in company since his last. Anchor Down should appreciate the stretch
out following the sprint prep and can be projected to improve at fair odds if
able to handle both the class rise and pace dynamics.
Selections:
#1 Stanford (“Key horse”)
#2 Itsaknockout
#5 Valid
#7 Anchor Down
#1 Grande Shores
#4 Blofeld
#3 Heininfront
$100
Bankroll:
$35 Win 1
$12 Exacta 1/2, 5
$ 15 Exacta 2, 5/1
$ 6 Exacta 1/7
$ 5 Exacta 7/1
$100 total wagers
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