Frank E. Kilroe Mile Attracts Ambitious Field
By: John Caro
Early
and mid-pace will tell the story for this one. Last out the ML favorite, #4 Bolo (2-1) stalked a wicked fast
pace through three quarters and got it done by a neck over the ever popular Obviously. Very impressive race and Ms.
Gaines had Bolo ready for the
challenge. Prat made a great move in the stretch to close the deal. So my
question is “why is Prat (16% turf win & 44% ITM) off and Mike Smith (3%
turf wins & 32% ITM) on board. No doubt Bolo is an excellent horse but can he come back with a different
jockey? Brisnet boasts this guy has the highest speed figure at today’s
distance (wrong).
A
closer look at the Brisnet form shows #6
Midnight Storm (3-1) with better early and mid-pace (103/109) clocked a 101
for the mile at a similar time (1:33) in an 80K AOC here after an eight month
break! By itself it would be impressive but the “WOW” here is to follow up into
Grade I company and finish second by a half with an even faster early/mid-pace
in the Shoemaker. Visually impressive on the video, too! The performance
picture looked bleak as he ran often with little improvement. The one strong
note is the early/mid-pace figures are consistent even in losses. Move forward
to his last out; 60 day break, jockey change, good works and less pace to win
against today’s second ML favorite, #3
Bal a Bali (7-2) by 1&3/4. Interesting that Midnight Storm is on another long rest with stellar works. D’Amato
is 10 wins of 49 turf races and ITM 57% and top of the list for this meet. Does
Midnight bulk up during the off time and for today’s race? He gets my vote as a
contender and I use him top and middle in trifectas and supers.
Speaking
of breaks. #3 Bal a Bali (7-2) and #7 De Treville (8-1) have both been on
sabbaticals. Bal a Bali’s trainer
has prepped this guy with some very nice works, including a buildup through 5,
6, 7 and 8 furlong outings at chop-chop speeds. Of course Prat aboard is a plus
with his current meet 16% turf wins and 43% ITM stats. While the mid-pace is
good at this distance it doesn’t appear to be as consistent as some and his
early pace rating is not what I’d like to see for a mile. Prat has won on him
once in three tries at this distance and well beaten by Midnight Storm in their
last meeting. I see him finishing 3rd
today.
#7 De Treville has had a long break with continuous
works since November, including a bullet 6 furlongs, to ready for this
challenge. His class is consistent with the competition. Hard to find a lot of
pace data. I have not gotten an opportunity to see all the races he’s been in
but, he appears to like it on or near the lead in what appears to be fair
times. His finishing times for 1600 meters is not on par with who’s running
today. Shirreffs’ 90 day away stat is not high enough to concern me. Baze has
his magic moments but I think he’s up against it here. They may do a one run
close and we’ve all seen that move. Caution, place in the bottom half of
exotics.
#1 OM (3-1) has the benefit of trying a second
time since a layoff, 19% winning turf jockey and a conditioner who may only
have had 8 turf events this meet but is winning at 37% and ITM 62% of the time.
He has not been overworked and his consistent winning ways before his break may
return. I like a very experienced jockey who can adjust to the pace. I want him
in second or third. If the pace is soft he could be a winner.
#2 What a View (8-1) wants Desormeaux on his back. Kent has
won 4 of six races, nosed out of one win and pushed 4 wide in a three length
loss. This guys has never faced the level of competition but his numbers
indicate he’s ready to give it a serious shot. His training regime is a steady
diet of 5 furlongs with consistent times and a rested blow 8 days ago. His
trainer, Ken Black, has only made 13 attempts at the turf this meet but is
winning 23% of those and 54% ITM. Turf seems to be his specialty. I think What a View has the potential to contend
this race and I’ll use him with Midnight
Storm to win this one.
Last
is the fifty to one shot #5 Kenjisstorm
(50-1) Let’s be fair; Steve Knapp has only had this four year old since
November. After two tries and an allowance win at Del Mar he takes a giant step
to the Grade II San Gabriel against Obviously.
Watching the video was pretty informative. Maldonado came flying out of hole 11
to track Obviously and I’m sure
Edwin could not believe a horse could go that wide through the first turn. He
did recover and was actually closing down the late back stretch while three
wide and lost it after 7/8ths while going longer than ever at a mile and an
eight. That wasn’t enough so we moved to a mile and a quarter with a rail trip,
boxed in at a mile, squeezed through to poke in front to finish second against
a fast closing older gelding, China Girl Lover. Then a win at a mile. And a
very nice run, and the times were very close to the last outing for OM and Bolo with a middle pace equal to Bolo’s. Has the trainer who’s
winning at 20% on turf and 40% ITM with a jockey who’s winning 16% and banking
42% ITM found this guy’s niche? I get why the odds makers put him at 50-1 given
the poor showing in graded company but; this is a young colt who has only gone
a mile or more twice and won both times at a mile and last time out speed was
two digits slower than Bolo. I’ll
check, but I’m sure he doesn’t know the other guys are big money winners. Maldonado
likes this fella and is teaching him the ways of winning. 50 to 1. He may lose
but not at that price. Don’t count him out.
Let
spend some money based on $100. Feel free to use less. My prime bets are marked
*
$2 Exacta – All with #5
Kenjisstorm - $24*
$1 Trifecta – 6 with 1,2,5
with All - $15*
$1
Trifecta – 2,6 with 2,6,5 with All
- $20
$0.20
Superfecta - 2,6 with 2,5,6 with All with All. - $16
$5 win #5*
$7 win #2* $13 win 6*
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