Handicapper's Corner: Ft.
Lauderdale Stakes (G2)
By: John Caro
Full field could produce upset over the lawn
John
Caro is a member of the S. Florida ThoroFan Chapter. Horses have always been a
passion. Not as race horses but as the greatest, most powerful animal in the
world. Their character says it all. He’s been handicapping since 1996. Mom gave
him his first lesson in 1963 at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. It flew right by
but, after a later discussion many years later about value in betting and how
to find contenders and spending the right amount, it all made sense. Finding
value in a $0.50 trifecta is lots of fun and pays handsomely when the value
horse comes to the top. His winning percentage is about 10.1 but the payouts on
exotics is exceptional as of late. Focus on value and bet conservative.
Weather
forecast – 80% chance of precipitation/thunderstorms with South winds at 15mph.
Will be tough coming home facing the wind and possibly the rain. This is a gut
it out race if the weather is ugly.
Prepare
for an awesome race with top talent but the weather impacts who will run and
who will run better.
On
the face of the race, the top contender is #1-Lochte;
with, of course, the country’s top jockey aboard. Castellano is also listed to
ride Madefromlucky, the morning line
favorite, who is entered for main track only if they’re off of the turf. Lochte has three wins in a row. He’s training well with five works since his
last win and a final bullet work on 1-4. Love the past performances but the
last race on the pp does not show that three of today’s runners swam
home in a driving rain in that race. Lochte
won it by 4. Pretty obvious Lochte is
a contender even if conditions are poor. Not my top pick at his expected price.
Top four.
Two
of Lochte’s opponents in his last, Key to Power and All Included, appeared to lose interest after a mile. Seeing the
replay, it could have been heavy going down the stretch for both, and Key to Power was out of the money by a
step.
#3-Key to Power - Lanerie got the job done in Key’s
last outing from the back, going five wide in showers on the main sealed track
to get it done at a handsome price. Unless Corey can do it again in a tougher
field; Key is good in the lower half of exotics.
#6-All Included was bet down to be the favorite in his
most recent race. Most likely because Castellano was aboard. His prior race
record didn’t deserve his 7/5 odds even with a magician aboard. His best races are
at a mile, if the pace is moderate. I don’t think that’s going to be the case
even if the weather turns ugly. Also,
he’s never won a graded race. On the plus side, Suez is winning at 19% on
the turf, he’s hot lately and of course Mr. Pletcher is always one to watch. Bottom
of exotics.
#7-War Correspondent has raced in excellent company, never
out of the money in his eight races. He’s been well rested in the Florida
sunshine at the Payson (Resort) Park with Clement and company. The workout
times don’t reflect the works. Payson is an interesting work place for horses.
The times posted do not reflect the visual appearance of the work outs. Awesome
visuals when you see them live. Lezcano on this guy is a plus. Top Super pick for me. First or second.
#8-Takeover Target likes to spend some time in the
mid-pack and go home. Can get the distance, can go on soft or yielding ground
and has a trainer/jockey combination that sees a lot of success with exactly
this type of race. 50% wins this year for this young colt and Irad Ortiz, Jr.
seems to get along well with this guy. Another Super pick. First or second.
#4-Lukes Alley just about jumps off the page for me. Never
worse than 2nd in his last eight outings. The only horse in the
field to beat War Correspondent albeit,
on Polytrack. So the question is, can I rely on this guy to show up given his
limited turf experience? Well, Josie Carroll has had him on the grass five
times to prep for this spot. Although Carroll’s record at Gulfstream turf is
less than what I’d like to see, Lukes Alley is my best long shot. Paco aboard
makes me smile, grin actually, a lot. See him in the top three.
#11-Heart to Heart unless Julian gets new instructions, Heart is likely the pace and front
runner with Fredericksburg going
along side. Lynch is tough in graded stakes and his charge stepped out for a
bullet on the turf at Palm Meadows a week ago. Leproux is winning at 20% on the
turf at Gulfstream. Like this horse and if he can start strong, fast, and
finish without a hitch, he will upset some very capable horses. Second or third
but, could surprise.
#9-Sky Flight won his last two. Rosario up is a big
plus for this fella with his 21% turf wins here. Mr. Casse is a tough customer
at Gulfstream and the only concern is the class jump. On the other hand, Sky
Flight is unaware of that factor. Like him in the bottom of the exotics.
And
then there is the rest of the field. I’m not particularly thrilled with them
and they just don’t show the toughness of the ones noted above. You could throw
them in the bottom of the Super.
Oh
yeah, almost forgot. #12-Madefromlucky
is going out with the crowd if it’s on the main track. What, I’m still
wondering is, will Lochte will stay
in the barn if it’s off the turf and whom will ride who. In any case, what’s
not to like about ‘lucky? Nothing,
but I’ll give him a second or third here.
And now the all-important
betting plan. This is supposed to be based on $100. I just don’t bet that way
but if you do, then you’ll figure out how much to put into each wager. My bets
are marked as *
$1 Trifectas
|
$1 Exactas
|
Win/Place bets
|
7 with 8,4,11 with 7,4,1,11,3,9 $15*
|
4,7,8,11 Box
$12
|
$5 W 4, $8 P 4*
|
4 with 7,8,11 with 7,8,1,11,3,9 $15
|
1,7,8,11 w 4 Key
$4*
|
$9 W 7 & 8
|
11 with 7,4,8 with 7,4,8,3,9,1 $15
|
||
If you have to…$0.50 Superfecta – 11
w 4,7,8 w 4,7,8 w 1,3,4,6,7,8,9 or key 11 in second place.
|
||
NOTE. If Madefromlucky
goes replace the 1 above.
If the weather is really
ugly, a Dutch Bet may be best way to bet based on the odds. But I stick with my
4 top picks and will Exacta Box them.
No comments:
Post a Comment