Handicapper's Corner: 2020 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational

Pegasus World Cup Turf could be Magical

By: The Turk

  

Magic Wand (Ire) 

Welcome friends to The Turk and the Little Turk Blog. Our blog, now in its thirteenth year, focuses primarily on turf handicapping of the handicap division. 

Today's post is written primarily for the The ThoroFan and the Handicapper's Corner.  The good people at The Thorofan have created the only nationwide fan- centric organization in the horse racing community.  God knows this sport needs a few things, like a sense of community and relevance and joining The Thorofan will allow you to find like minded people who enjoy your passions too!

Who doesn't like a good "whodunit", the classic murder mystery.  Handicapping is a lot like that.  You have all the usual suspects, you have backstories, competing motivations, strangers in a strange land, and drama. The Pegasus Turf offers all these things.  There is no real strong suspect, the race is held without race day medications being given (is it really so hard?), and you have a motley crew of veterans and up and comers. 

To me, turf racing epitomizes horse racing, a sentiment I know my fellow American's don't really embrace, but as the years go by for me, it's the sort of racing that offers good sized fields and lots and lots of intrigue, the proverbial "whodunit", or maybe more appropriately, who will do it.

I've found recent video on every horse in the field.  I think its important to look closely at the Race Charts in concert with videos.  It's very easy to brush through the PPs and see a horse hasn't won in three starts, but how many beaten lengths was he, what was the trip like, how impressive was the late turn of foot?  The paper tells quite a bit of the story but the video brings it color and sound.  

Breeders' Cup Turf G1:  2 November 2019;  1 1/2 Miles Firm SA  

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic G1: 5 Oct 2019; 1 1/2 Miles Firm BEL  

The Fort Lauderdale G2: 14 Dec 2019;  1 1/8 Miles Firm GP  

The Sea Biscuit Handicap G2: 30 Nov 2019;   1 1/16 Miles Good Turf  DMR  

The Hollywood Derby G1: 30 Nov 2019; 1 1/8 Miles Good Turf  DMR  

Hong Kong Cup G1; 8 Dec 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Good Turf' Sha Tin (HK)  

Breeders' Cup Mile G1; 2 Nov 2019; 1 Mile Firm Turf  SA

Arlington Million G1; 10 Aug 2019; 1 1/4 Miles Firm Turf   AP


It appears the weather will be dry.  You can find the scratches and changes along with track conditions here.  I'm handicapping expecting firm turf.


The mare, Magic Wand (Ire) just jumps off the paper in terms of pure class and ability. Look at the Hong Kong Cup video above and just watch her explosion in the last 1/8 of a mile as she comes out of traffic and surges. $4.1 MM in earnings.  Only 3 wins in 22 turf starts.  Only 1 win in 10 starts at this distance.  Trainer Aiden O'Brien ouch: 0 of 24 starters last rolling year in Graded Stakes NA, 0 of 28 Turf Starters.  With the bloodstock he has access to, that is staggering.  I know its a challenging trip but wow.

I have a group of three after the Mare.  Arklow is first back after Breeders' Cup, a 61-180 day layoff that trainer Cox does well with, 24% winners on 87 tries. 5 of 7 in the money in 2019 as a 5 YO but only one 1 win,  a game Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at 1 1/2 mile.  First GP start.  12 of 24 lifetime starts ended in Win-Place.  Without Parole (GB) is first back off the Breeders' Cup Mile. The distance seems to be the biggest question for him although his breeding implies he should handle it, he is one of only two here with a Tomlinson Number >400. Chad Brown Trainee put up bullet 5f last week.  No Wins in 3 starts in 2019.  Mo Forza is a wildcard.  4 YO son of Uncle Mo should be faster than he's shown.  Peter Miller's trainee has won four straight.  7 of 9 in the money over turf and the only other +400 Tomlinson Distance Rated Number in the field.

My exotic/show horse group is four deep and of that two I suspect are better than the other two.  Sacred Life (Fr) is 11 of 13 Win-Place finishes lifetime.  Chad Brown trainee.  Game and gritty.  Loses class battle and he's never seen a field like he will today.  Late speed and effort could propel and long tote board odds make me consider him in back half of exacta.  7 YO Zulu Alpha first back from Breeders' Cup Turf.  5 straight 100+ Beyers.  10 of 18 in the money over past two years.  16 of 26 in the money over grass.  Won at this distance here in March 2019.  What you see is what you get.  The same can be said for 7 YO Sadler's Joy.  Trainer Albertrani skipped the Breeders' Cup and found a win in the G3 Red Smith at AQA in late November and now first time back.  18 of 26 in the money lifetime.  Channel Cat is Todd Pletcher's lone entry.  Trainer Pletcher was in a downturn last year around this time winning "only" about 22% of the time.  That has slipped to 10% Graded Stakes wins in 129 starts over the rolling year.  This 5 YO loses class but has enough intangibles to be considered in tickets.

For better or worse I'm tossing everyone else because you can't cover them all. I could have made a case for Next Shares in the exotic group, and Henley's Joy will get better but the water is deep here.

So what to do with it?  While it's not sexy, a $1 six horse boxed exacta of 12-2-3-10-11-1 for $30 should make money provided the top two horses on the tote board don't finish 1-2.  Even then, it should still pay about 2/3's the cost of the bet, sop gambling that the order and the value pops favorable may be the uncomplicated play.

Alternatively, I'm inclined to $1 exacta 12-2-3-10 OVER 12-2-3-10-11-1-4-5 for $28.

Final Alternative, I'll be watching Arklow closely.  If he's 4-5 to 1 I may single and bet a few horses under him in exacta.  Lots of options.  Arklow may represent the safest Win bet.  Cox is on top of his game and Brown's runners here aren't world beaters.

I'll be thinking about this right up to post when I get a look at the odds.  A win bet on Mo Forza at the right price isn't out of the question.

The Turk began his 2020 handicapping challenge, entitled 52 bets in 52 Weeks.  Through the first three weeks of 2020 the ROI sits at 40.6% with winnings of $227 on $162 dollars wagered.  It's a small sample size, plenty of time for the Ol' Turk to screw the pooch. 

Last week I took a shot on a race I knew I should have passed on, the Sunshine Millions Turf.  As you can see, my base handicap was dead on but this was the result the betting public overwhelming picked.  The straight trifecta I handicapped cold paid $3.65 on a $1 bet.  Ugh.  I bet an exacta hoping that someone other than Beautiful Lover would finish in Place. 

Close, but ultimately class prevailed.  I turned $10 into $4.60.  The stuff of legends.



 

Have fun with this friends, Turk Out!

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Kentucky Turf Sprint (G3)

Longshot Standout in Kentucky Turf Sprint

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Member

Welcome to the only European turf course in America, and it is a challenge. I am here to watch the races for several days and it’s always a treat. The horses enjoy a low level crowd without all the grandstands and hoopla that goes with a major track. Kinda relaxed. The course is in great shape and tended by the crews between each race. Yesterday’s races saw favorites win the first four and then the fireworks started. This Sprint is the first of four Grade III stakes and starts the Pick 4 which may be worthwhile to play.

This one goes six furlongs which most of these runners don’t do or don’t do often and it should be a fierce pace. Looking at the runners shows we have a strong group of sprint specialists who have all won going in split and finish times that are not seen in your everyday races. I can’t say that closers win more often than not at Kentucky Downs, but the jockeys do have to have a great sense of pace here as the last 3 furlongs are a climb to the top of the hill and the finish line.

The horses that stand out for this race are #1 – Wet Your Whistle with a flurry of four wins, including the Grade I Highlander (going today’s distance), before losing to #8 – Leinster, Disco Partner and Pure Sensation. If he competed against that caliber of sprinters, he has to be given a shot. Pure Sensation is one of the finest sprinters in the country and just won the Turf Monster at PARX going away. Leinster is no doubt a has come into his own with three straight wins and last out winning against the above in the Troy S. and the time was 2 one hundredths off the track record. He gets 4 stars! Gaffalione is up and he’s been very hot here.

#3 – Imprimis likes to attend the pace and then jet home in the last quarter mile and has been successful with that tactic with Paco Lopez. 

Both #10- Totally Boss and #7 – Jazzy Times come late and strong to win or be in the money in very hot pace scenarios.

#6 – White Flag is the last of the horses I’ll review as he is the only horse who has the most experience at the distance. Note that he was beaten by Wet Your Whistle in The GI Highlander by 2 lengths. The rest of the runners are some great names and long-time competitors but I don’t see them for this race against those above.

I’ll key Wet Your Whistle for this race and use the others in a trifecta.

$3 Trifecta -  1 with 3, 7, 10 with 3, 6, 7, 8, 10     $36     

$4 Trifecta -  3, 7, 10 with 1 with 3, 6, 7, 8, 10     $48

$84 total.

Save the rest for your $0.50 Pick 4    

Hint – 1, 3  with 7 with 9, 7 with 3, 5, 9, 10,   $8

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Ladies Sprint Stakes (G3)

Ruby Nation Seeks Ladies Sprint Repeat

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

As with the Kentucky Downs meet, and the turf sprint division as a whole, the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint (G3) is a race on the rise.  Instituted in 2013, it first earned a grade last year. It offered a $150,000 purse when it began, a purse that has increased in all but one year of its history; the race now offers a $500,000 purse (if you’re Kentucky-bred; $300,000 if not, which is still a hefty sum for a Grade 3).  The race has always been run at six and a half furlongs on the grass: a bit longer than your average American turf sprint, though one of the shorter ones you’ll see over the rolling lawn in Franklin, Kentucky.

Its second winner has been in the news this year as a broodmare.  In 2014 Richies Party Girl won the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint for trainer Wesley Ward and owners Ward and Richard Ravin.  Now Ward trains her first foal: Maven, a colt by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.  In April, Maven became American Pharoah’s first winner in the United States when he won a dirt sprint at Belmont; he went on to win the Prix du Bois (G3) sprinting over the grass at Chantilly in June.

Two trainers have won this race twice: Ward also won the race’s inaugural edition with To My Valentine (2013), and Mark Casse won with both Sky Treasure (2015) and Mississippi Delta (2016).  Casse does not have an entrant this year, though Ward will try to win his third with Stillwater Cove. No horse has yet won the race more than once, though that may change this year: 2018 winner Ruby Notion returns to the starting gate.

This year’s edition of the Kentucky Downs Ladies Sprint drew an overflow field, twelve entrants plus three on the also-eligible list.

When handicapping Kentucky Downs it’s worth keeping a few things in mind.  For one, it’s always good to find a horse for the course, since Kentucky Downs is unlike any other course in America.  Of course, some horses who try it for the first time prove they like it, but some horses who haven’t been world-beaters elsewhere but ran anomalously well over it a year or two back can pay an overlaid price when returning to the course.  Only two entrants are winners over the course: Ruby Notion won this very race last year, and She’s All Skeet (mired three deep on the AE list) won a six-furlong maiden special in 2017 and then a second-level allowance over this distance last year. 

Secondly, speed often holds in sprints at Kentucky Downs.  What few sprint races there were on the card the first day at Kentucky Downs were won on or near the lead, suggesting that this year is no different.  Some tactical speed is important – after all, this is a sprint with a full field, so a one-dimensional need-to-lead type is at a disadvantage.

Last year’s winner, Ruby Notion, does not appear to come into the race in the same razor-sharp form as she carried into the race last year.  But last time out suggests she is coming back into better form than she was in.  Pace is a question: she seemed to have a bit more early speed earlier in her career, and has turned into more of a late-runner in this phase of her career.  But even now, that only means she sits a handful of lengths back; she’s not a deep closer.  If things get hot up front with the likes of Morticia, Painting Corners, and Coexistence she could trip out at a square price over a course we know she likes.

Among those speedier horses?  Morticia is the most class-proven of the bunch, but she keeps taking money this year, and keeps falling just short.  She fits the field, sure, but relegating her to the underneath rungs and not taking her on top is perhaps the best way to make this pay. 

Painting Corners will likely be a better price, and has more upside at this point.  From a pace perspective, Painting Corners can be tactical, with winning races right on the front end as well as from just off it.  She was sharp at Del Mar this summer, winning the Daisycutter and then running third in a tough allowance-optional.  Both of those races were over five furlongs, so she is stretching out for this.  But, with some smart form down the hill at Santa Anita, there’s an indication that she can stretch out and take her form with her.  Toss the odd dirt race (wash-offs are just not her thing!), and you see a mare who is consistent in good turf sprints out west, shipping for Peter Miller, who doesn’t put the horse on the plain or the van unless she fits.

Oleksandra has emerged as the “now” horse among the filly and mare turf sprint division; she started her career with a bit of promise in the maiden ranks in Australia, but has come into her own since moving to the States last fall. She has yet to try Kentucky Downs, but she is a mare who does not need to take her track with her: she won a five-and-a-half-furlong turf dash at Saratoga last out, but has also won at six furlongs at Belmont, as well as down the hill at Santa Anita.  Though Olexandra is a late-running type, she doesn’t have to drop all the way back to the clouds, and she won’t mind an honest pace in front of her.  The drawback is, the price will be short given her consistency and class, and it’s hard to get excited about a short price at Kentucky Downs.  But, it’s impossible not to see her as a contender in her current form.

Selections:

#10 Ruby Notion (6/1)

#6 Painting Corners (8/1)

#3 Oleksandra (3/1)

Longshot:  #5 Coexistence (15/1) hasn’t won at Kentucky Downs yet but her one race over the course was very good.  She led most of the way going a mile and five sixteenths at Kentucky Downs last year, and digging in late to lose by only a neck.  Holding that long in a route at Kentucky Downs is a solid effort, since routes there tend to be as friendly for closers as sprints are to frontrunning types.  Sure, this will be Coexistence’s first time sprinting at Kentucky Downs. 

But?  Trainer Joe Sharp has successfully reinvented her as a one-turn horse this year.  She broke her maiden March 24 at Fair Grounds, the first time she was cut back to five and a half furlongs, and she hasn’t looked back.  Perhaps odd for a horse who started as a router, she does have sprint speed, as she showed two starts back.  She also has the ability to stalk the pace, a positive with other front-end gas drawn in.   

Coexistence does have some tables to turn, as May Lily has beaten her in two of her last three starts, but Coexistence may get a better run from a pace perspective this time around.  She has held form consistently this campaign, she returns to a course she likes (and that her regular jockey Adam Beschizza rides well!), and she should have no problem stretching out to six and a half furlongs.  She offers a lot to like at a price.

Handicapper's Corner: Miami Mile Stakes (G3)

Smokem Kitten Has Speed to Burn in Miami Mile Stakes

By John Caro

Eight three year olds are eager to contest the Grade 3 Miami Mile Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.  South Florida ThoroFan handicapping expert John Caro uses his keen eye to discover long shots flying under the radar.

Miami Mile Stakes GIII - $100K –Turf 3 and Up

Lots of top turf veterans horses in this one with top turf trainers and jockeys that have some of the best stats for this kind of race. 

#1 – Conquest Tsunami has limited turf experience but put out a fast turn of foot in his last outing at a mile and an eighth at Tampa in January. He has had many breaks the past year and his ITM record is 0 for 3 since his good efforts as a two year old. On the plus side; Casse is 25% on turf with 68% ITM and 24% at a distance, Jaramillo Emisael is winning on the turf at 31% and ITM at 47% and is the top distance jockey at Gulfstream with nearly 40%. Tsunami’s early speed may make him the rabbit for this one but will likely give others the chance to run at him through the stretch. Nice workouts with two bullets though his record’s not strong enough for me as a winner. Bottom of exotics but Jaramillo may play it different today and could show up for second.

#2 – Smokem Kitten is a “JOY” to watch. Setting the Gulfstream track record last time out at 7.5 was very impressive. Under Johnny V’s direction he pressed (albeit 7 lengths back) in a furious pace to move at the half and finished 5 up in his fourth start. Great video. The finish is an indication he can go longer today with no problem as he did in his maiden win with Prado aboard. Maker has not fared well on the turf this meet with his lone win by Smokey and 3 more in the money out of 7 races (57% ITM). Interesting note is he seems to do better inside and he is versatile on the lead or as a presser. I really like this fella for the win!! Hope the odds are right.

#3 – Amigo is a road warrior veteran but has not shown much this year and the last win was in an OC at GPW. He did hit the board in the Tropical Turf H. against Locate and Flashlight with a furious run down the stretch at 63-1 under Jaramillo E. (above). Great news is Ronny Werner is 2 for 3 at a distance and 42% on the turf and 57% ITM with only 7 attempts. Caraballo is 1 for 11 on turf and 1 for 10 at a distance and not having a stellar season. Could see him plodding along and try to revisit the furious run tactic but, Amigo is not on my list even with a steady diet of .49 works and a winning trainer.

#4 – Hothersal this 8 year old veteran is out of a Theatrical mare and is pretty handy at Gulfstream while 71% ITM here. The numbers for the trainer and jockey as posted on Brisnet are in error. Gaffalione is winning at 17% and 65% ITM on turf with 21% and 71% at a distance. Serves is a top trainer on turf at the meeting with 42% and 81% ITM with 14% at a distance. Hothersal three important factors to note; can take a quick pace and catch up, is a mid-pack closer and has done a mile in 1:34. I like this guy as a second and third place finisher…. He’ll be in the mix.

#5 – With Exhalation has great breeding for this event, has won two at Gulfstream this meeting but I’d like to see a little bit more in his works while he goes with the high weight. Elvis is doing well on the turf at 18% here and may be able to overcome Weaver’s low stats. When he wins he is fairly close to a moderate pace. I don’t think we’ll see that today. Third place, maybe. 

#6 – Middleburg is ITM 15 of 17 lifetime and his conditioner is winning at 33% on turf and tied with Serves for ITM at 83%. Steady works at Payson Park (Recreation and Relaxation Center) since January indicate to me that Clement has been waiting for the right race at the right time. Bravo has not had a turf race here at the meeting but, that doesn’t scare me. His class, ITM record at this or any level, and the weight break. Make him a top pick with Smokey Kitten.

#7 – Akatbantay is the Out-of-Towner… two races back he closed to within 1.25 and lost with the very hot Victor LeBron at Tampa against… Who…. Ok, I read the Equibase article about him and the thoughts about a well bred colt who failed in Europe and came for the American game ….blah, blah, blah. Sorry the performance since two has been abysmal even when Europe’s best riders are aboard losing by 61 lengths in the last 5 races. Trouble Prone? Castro is hot and a smart jockey with a competitive spirit but, you have to come with a horse….. may be a scratch candidate. NO!

#8 – Quiet Force has just about everything a horseplayer would want to see on past performance. He either wins or is out of the money. The great news is he may be a price today. Not real happy with Walder’s stats but, the breeding, the speed, the pace marks, two wins after a break and Zayas aboard gives me a lot of hope. Force can meet the forecast pace and show up from mid-pack to take a piece or win. Like him as much as my other two above.

Let’s make a bet…..Hoo-Rah

Use the Dutch bet method with the #2, #6 #8

i.e.- $20 win on the lowest odds of the three, $10 on the second lowest and $7 on the highest odds

Trifecta

$0.50 Trifecta  2,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8    $36

$0.50 Tri Box   2,6,8              as many as you feel comfortable with…. Check the odds

$2 Exacta 2,6,8 with 1,2,4,6,8   $24