Friday, January 29, 2016

Handicapper's Corner - Withers Stakes

The 2016 Withers Stakes

By Robert Marks, They're in the Gate (and on Twitter @theyreinthegate)


On Saturday, January 30, 2016 the 136th running of the Withers Stakes will be held at the Aqueduct Racetrack in New York.  Post Time is 1:50 (Eastern Time).  Last weeks Blizzard led to several cancelled cards but the forecast looks ok for Saturday with temperatures in the upper 30's with partly cloudy skies.
The race has a $250,000 purse and is for 3-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track. The Grade III Withers Stakes will award the first place finisher with ten points towards the chance at a position in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Here are the participants listed by Horse, Odds, Jockey and Trainer.


Withers Stakes 2016 Post Positions & Odds
1 Donegal Moon 15-1           A.T. Gryder              T. Pletcher
2 Flexibility 7-5                    I. Ortiz                    C.C. Brown
3 Cards of Stone  20-1         E. Cancel                 H.J. Bond
4 King Kranz 8-1                 C.H. Velasquez          J. Terranova
5 Vorticity 8-1                     J.L. Ortiz                  L. Lawrence II
6 Adventist 5-1                   K. Carmouche           L. Gyarmati
7 Sunny Ridge 5-2              M. Franco                 J. Servis

 
Here's who we like as far as horses to bet:


Flexibility -The 7-5 favorite is coming off a 4.5 length victory in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct back on 01/02/16. His sire Bluegrass Cat was second in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes. He is 2-2-0 out of his 4 starts. There is no value in picking him but this New York bred looks like the clear winner.


Adventist is sitting at 5-1 and definitely more value than Flexibility will give you. Kendrick Carmouche has been riding very well this year at Aqueduct and would love the change to get the upset win here. Only has 1 start with an 11 length win back in December.  


Vorticity -This horse is 8-1. He finished a game 2nd to Flexibility in the Jerome States. He has placed in all 4 stars (2-1-1) so you know he likes to compete.  This competitiveness will be needed as I expect him to up near the front in what I expect to be a fast pace race.  


Sunny Ridge-5-2 I expect a fast pace and sometimes a midpack type horse like Sunny Ridge sticks around in a fast pace race to pick up the pieces. Definitely a horse to play in your Trifecta and Superfecta combinations.


Wagering/Betting Handigambling Bankroll:

$25 Win/Place: Flexibility (2) ($50 total)
EXACTA: $2 Key Exacta (10 Bets for total cost of $20)
2, 6 / 2,5,,6,7
Trifecta ($1 Box for $24 Total)
2,5,6,7
$6 Show : Flexibility

We expect a fast pace with Flexibility prevailing. We place a nice win/place bet on him and we will also key the favorite with Flexibility over the 3mentioned above. If Vorticity or Adventist hits on top it could be a nice payout.

As always, watch the Board and if at the track watch how the horses look in the Paddock and adjust your bets accordingly. Good Luck!



2 comments:

  1. If you bet the above bets you made a $54 profit on the day.

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