Tactical Speed Meets Class in the D. Wayne Lukas Stakes
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Hello there, racing fans. This week’s ThoroFan Race of the Week comes from the ‘Great Race Place’, Santa Anita Park, with the running of the Grade 2 D. Wayne Lukas Stakes. Formerly known as the Santa Monica Stakes, this seven-furlong contest was renamed in honor of the legendary Hall of Fame trainer.
This $200,000 Grade 2 event brings together four-year-old and up fillies and mares from seven different Southern California barns, setting the stage for a competitive and well-matched field. Carded as race 6 of 9, post time is 3:05 PM PT.
At this tricky distance, expect an exciting mix of early pace and tactical maneuvering, as the top female runners sort themselves out down the Santa Anita stretch.
Let's review the field.
ANALYSIS:
Breaking down the field, one mare clearly stands out, and that’s Splendora. She’s the class of the race on paper, owns the strongest overall figures, and has already proven she fits this seven-furlong distance. Splendora doesn’t need the lead, can sit just off the pace, and has the kind of finishing kick that usually gets the job done in races like this. She’s the one they all have to beat.
Behind her, there’s a solid group of mares who make sense underneath. Formula Rossa is a consistent type who shows up every time and figures to be involved late. Simply Joking has enough tactical speed to stay close early and grind her way into the exotics. No Bad Beats is an improving four-year-old who should be part of the early flow and could hang around for a share if she handles the class jump. Irina’s Charm is lightly raced with upside and makes her second start off the layoff, a spot where improvement is possible, though this is a tougher assignment.
As for the others, Me and Molly McGee and Lemon Muffin appear to be up against it on both class and figures and would need significant improvement to factor in.
From a race shape standpoint, expect an honest but controlled pace. This doesn’t look like a meltdown type of race, which should favor mares with tactical speed and proven class. That plays directly into the hands of Splendora, who should get a very comfortable trip sitting just off the leaders before making her move, turning for home.
WAGERING:
Splendora is a strong win candidate. Exactas can be built around her over Formula Rossa and Simply Joking, and for those playing the superfecta, keying Splendora on top with Formula Rossa, Simply Joking, No Bad Beats, and Irina’s Charm underneath makes the most sense. Keep it tight, trust the class, and don’t over complicate it. Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!!
