Pacific Classic Worth Writing Home About
By: John Caro, ThoroFan handicapper
Saturday’s Pacific Classic (G1) pits the youngster who has not been out of the money in his lifetime races against older contenders going fast on the dirt for a classic distance.
The $1 million 1 1/4-mile event offers a spot in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, held over this track. The Pacific Classic post time is 6:11 PM PT.
Michael McCarthy’s Journalism is the second-best 3-year-old in the country, going against older champions that will try to foil his race.
We’ve all seen what Sovereignty has done to his competition. I think that says a lot about Journalism’s chances to win here.
I’m going to make this brief.
6. Journalism – Never out of the money in 9 lifetime races, speed is on the money for this distance and competition. Top pick for me.
1. Fierceness – If he runs his race, he is a threat to my top pick. In the last two races, it seemed as though he lost his edge. If he gets out and runs the pace or tracks the speed, he can stay on. Johnny V has been on this guy many times, and I expect he will work out a trip. Last workout shows speed.
4. Nysos – The ML favorite and at home with Baffert working him long in training. Great race record, good speed going shorter, and there is my concern. Will he be able to sustain that pace and speed over the distance? When you look at his odds in previous races, you have to wonder how strong the company was. Will be an over bet favorite.
2. Midnight Monmouth - Has been in the layoff mode since May. He has a really nice work tab that points to a stretch out in distance. This guy can carry the distance and may be part of the pace. On his last visit to Del Mar, he won a Grade 3 race going 1 1/2 miles and finished 10 lengths in front. Great longshot choice. ITM
5. Indispensable - Very interesting …John Sadler brings Paco Lopez out from the East Coast, in favor of a local jockey, to ride a horse that has never been out of the money at Del Mar, albeit lower level and going shorter. He can keep pace and has broken 100+. He looks to be changing a pace plan.. mid pack and with a closing finish. Breeding says the distance is not out of the question….scary longshot.
8. Tarantino - Couldn’t keep up with Nysos or Midnight Monmouth in his last two outings. I expect that will be the case for this race as well.
7. Lure Him In – Oldest horse in the race, and although he is competitive with others and is ridden today by a great jockey, I believe he is up against a true class test.
3. Ultimate Gamble – I think this guy is going to try to be the pace setter, and his jockey probably leads Fierceness into the back stretch, then fades. Not that the horse doesn’t have the breeding to go longer, but he’s been trained to go a mile and a bit.
So I see the pace being quite quick and fast fractions until a mile and an eighth, and then a closing finish by Journalism.
Handigambling, unusual, but a single bet will make my day. No need to spend a lot here.
$2 Trifecta 6 with 1,2,4,5 with All $48
Good Luck
Bonus Bet Kentucky Downs Race 10 - Nashville Derby
2 with 4,6,9 with 1,4,6,9,11,1
