Speed is King in the Rebel Stakes
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
NOTE: Like much of the country this past week, Mother Nature has dealt severe weather and freezing temperatures to Arkansas, forcing Oaklawn Park to move its entire Rebel race card up one day to Sunday from its originally scheduled date of Saturday, February 22nd.
Recent Kentucky Derby qualifiers have been worth 20-10-6-4-2 points to the top five finishers. The Rebel Stakes raises the points distribution to 50-25-15-10-5, which all but guarantees the winner a spot in the Run for the Roses on May 3rd at Churchill Downs.
The 65th running of the Rebel is the richest Triple Crown prep so far in 2025 and has attracted a field of 14 Kentucky Derby hopefuls for this 1 1/16-mile event.
Historically, the Rebel Stakes has produced five three-year-old champions since 2000. Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lookin’ at Lucky, Will Take Charge, and American Pharoah were all victorious in this race en route to a Championship 3-Year-Old Campaign.
Let’s
look at the horses from the rail out.
1 - COAL BATTLE – Juan Vargas/Lonnie Briley – 10-1 - Is coming in on a three race stakes winning streak, having defeated opponents at Delta Downs, Remington Park and most recently at Oaklawn Park. Has won 4 of 6 career starts, with his other win coming at Evangeline Downs. This colt’s only two defeats have come over the turf.
2 - ADMIRAL DENNIS – Florent Geroux/Brad Cox – 12- 1 - He returns to the races after beating first-level allowance horses at Fairgrounds in January. If you’re looking for a positive, two races back, this colt was fourth in the Gun Runner Stakes, where the second-place finisher came back to win the G2 Risen Star.
3 - SANDMAN – Christian Torres/Mark Casse – 4-1 - Oaklawn Park based colt ran some pretty good stakes races in his juvenile year but then had his three-year-old training interrupted due to bad weather in January. With only two short workouts in advance of the Southwest and a nightmarish beginning, the Casse runner came up with his best stakes finish to date when finishing second.
4 - HYPNUS – Brian Hernandez/Ken McPeek – 10-1 - Unraced 2-year-old debuted at this distance at Fairgrounds in January to win his maiden by nearly three lengths. He broke on top then dropped back to mid-pack, before splitting horses at the top of the stretch. He then unleashed an eye-catching rally to sail by the leaders and win going away over a sloppy track.
5 - MADAKET ROAD – Irad Ortiz/Bob Baffert – 9-2 - Son of Quality Road has made three starts, two of them in graded stakes. The first was a second-place finish in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes, which marked his debut. That event was won by Bullard, who goes in here. The other was his last outing in the G3 Robert Lewis Stakes, where he stalked the pace for much of the race before flattening out to finish third.
6 - PUBLISHER – Flavien Prat/Steve Asmussen – 20-1 - Lost all chance at the start of the G3 Southwest Stakes when he bobbled at the start and was never able to get into contention. This American Pharoah colt is still looking for his first win after five career races.
7 - DREAMINBLUE – Francisco Arrieta/Randy Morse – 15-1 - Broke his maiden here in January when he extricated himself from traffic and made a nice bid from mid-pack to win by 3/12 lengths. Big step up in class here.
8 - INNOVATOR – Tyler Bacon/D. Wayne Lukas – 15-1 - He was cruising along nicely on the front end in slop in the G3 Lecomte Stakes but got collared late and finished third, beaten just half-length. That wasn’t the first time he gave up the lead in a race. Prior to his six-furlong maiden win in the mud at Oaklawn, where he barely held on, he weakened in consecutive 5 1/2 furlong affairs. There is some other quality speed in here, so look for him to battle on or close to the front end.
9 - SMOKEN WICKED – Tyler Gafflione/Dallas Stewart – 8-1 - He gave a good account of himself last summer in New York when racing against graded competition. He’s riding a current three-race win streak and has won half of his starts. However, three of his wins have come when facing state-bred runners. He owns competitive speed figures, but can he replicate them against this group?
10 - BULLARD - Umberto Rispoli/Mike McCarthy – 5-1 - SCRATCHED
11 - SPEED KING – Rafael Bejarano/Ron Moquett – 6-1 - This colt is a half-length from being undefeated in three starts when he was second best in the Springboard Mile in his second lifetime race. Won easily on debut at Churchill Downs in November and last out over this track, he was a nice-looking winner of the Southwest Stakes.
12 – BRERETON’S BAYTOWN – Joseph Bealmear/Paul McEntee – 50-1 -Most experienced horse in the field with nine starts. This gelding seems to favor an off-track, as his only two wins have come on a muddy and a sloppy surface. The most recent win was his latest when he was lowered into claiming company at Laurel Park. This group will prove to be a difficult assignment. Not much to recommend.
13 - TIZTASTIC – Jose Ortiz/Steve Asmussen – 8-1 - Won a pair of turf contests last summer at Kentucky Downs and has not finished worse than third in three consecutive dirt graded stakes, with his most recent being a third-place finish in the G3 Southwest Stakes where he had some serious traffic issues.
14 –
HOT GUNNER – Harry Hernandez/Scott Young – 50-1 - Had some minor stakes
experience as a juvenile with a third-place showing at Prairie Meadow. Notched
his second win when he got the bob at the wire against a non-winner 2 lifetime
event last time out at Sam Houston. He’s had one run over this Oaklawn surface,
and that was a last place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes in January. Doesn’t
appear to be a threat.
ANALYSIS: A look at the track bias stats for Oaklawn shows speed has been very favorable at the current meet, and early runners have won more than their fair share of races. And that’s where I’ll begin.
The two early horses that do their best running on the lead are the appropriately named Speed King, breaking from post 11 and the other, Innovator, leaving a few gates to his inside. I believe the former runner can outrun the latter and be in an ideal position to possibly lead this field wire-to-wire as he did in the Southwest. However, if the Moquett horse gets any type of pace pressure early, he may become susceptible late to a closing runner.
A couple of late runners that intrigue me are Sandman and Tiztastic. Sandman broke in a tangle at the start of the Southwest and raced wide but managed to close late and catch the place spot behind Speed King. This is his third start off the layoff, often a horse’s best. I also like the fact that he paired up his last two Bris Speed ratings, which equaled his best speed figure as a juvenile, and that is often a good sign of peaking form.
Tiztastic, who finished third in the Southwest, drew a wide post, but with his late running style, he can drop back and hope his jockey, Jose Ortiz, can work out a good trip when the real running begins. The Asmussen runner has the best late pace ratings in the field, and he will be motoring late. It would be no surprise if this colt wins, as one must respect his Hall-of-Fame trainer, who just won the Risen Star last week with a big effort from another Winchell-owned horse.
WAGER: With $100 of mythical ThoroFan money, I will bet the race this way:
$20 win on Speed King
$10 exacta box Speed King/Sandman ($20)
$10 exacta box Speed King/Tiztastic ($20)
$10 win saver on Sandman
$6 Trifecta box with those three horses ($30)
Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!
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