The Great Swap
By: Alex Sausville, Off The Turf Podcast
After a storied history downstate at Big Sandy, the Jockey Club Gold Cup is welcomed to its new home in upstate New York. The fields have come up a bit short in recent years, and this year is very similar. However, despite the size of the field, the quality has continued to thrive year in year out. From the memorable disqualification of eventual Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso in 2019 to the shocking upset of two global stars in Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow in the hands of Discreet Lover, this year's race looks to be much of the same.
The
multiple winners of this race include names steeped in racing history. From
recent memory of Tonalist, Flat Out, and Curlin to the superstars of the past
in Skip Away, Creme Fraiche, Slew o’ Gold, Shuvee, Nashua, and of course Kelso,
but he won it five times.
Happy
Saver looks to join this list after his triumph over eventual Dubai World Cup
winner Mystic Guide last season. With Mystic Guide on the sidelines, his biggest
challenge comes from Max Player, who ended Happy Saver’s undefeated record in
the GII Suburban back in July. A renewed rivalry heads to Saratoga, and the
Jockey Club Gold Cup finds its new home just a bit more fitting as things begin
to wind down in Saratoga Springs.
My Analysis
Regarding
how this race will play out, I see very little opportunity for a few of the
horses in this field who will look to pick up the pieces. There really isn’t a
big speed horse who could throw a wrench into the pace of the race. The two
that will be heading up the market, Max Player and Happy Saver will try to be
up near the pace but won’t be looking to be the pacesetter. Most likely, Max
Player will be the one who gets the front and may not have to work too hard for
it.
The
vast majority of your longer prices in this race are late closers. Horses like
Night Ops, Forewarned, and New Orleans Classic winner Chess Chief will all be
trying to close in late; however, I just don’t envision them getting the pace
they would need to have a chance to contend. Chess Chief is the most
interesting of those runners as he is coming off of a couple of disappointing
efforts, including one on turf in Virginia. That race was being used as a
potential prep for the Pacific Classic, but they decided to go another way.
Despite that field not coming up super tough at Del Mar, he gets a field of six
here and could be a live chance for a placing.
The
big wildcard in this field is Forza Di Oro. It will be the 2nd start off a long
layoff for the half-brother to multiple stakes winner, Silver Dust. Came back
strong in allowance company at Saratoga and has performed at stakes level in
the past. This is not the strongest field for this race outside of the top two.
However, I think he is the best of the rest in that regard and, with a bit of
improvement, is not far off from competing with the Max Player and Happy Saver.
My
Plays
$50
Win - 1 Forza Di Oro = $70
$5
Exacta Box - 1/2,3,4 = $30
Total
= $100
Final
Thoughts
Of
the two top runners, I would rather have Happy Saver going into this race than
Max Player. However, I think there is a lot of value in Forza Di Oro in this
spot, and I am willing to take that shot that he can step up and defeat this
field. His most recent efforts have shown graded stakes ability, and as
mentioned prior, this race does seem like it will be run to form.
If Forza Di
Oro is just able to settle in a nice spot early and be close enough to the
lead, he should have every chance to take out this Group One event. The
question to be answered will be if he is good enough to contend at the top of
the division. In my opinion, absolutely he is.
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