Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

 Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon clash again in Pennsylvania Derby

By Michael Amo, ThoroFan

The Pennsylvania Derby (GI) has positioned itself to be the perfect prep for the Breeders’ Cup. The 42 days between these two days affords plenty of downtime and still the opportunity to “tune up” for the big one.

Only one horse is not pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup races. He is the local horse, I am Redeemed. The other eight are eyeing the Cup. Five of them have faced each other in different grade one races.

This year’s Pennsylvania Derby will be a great race. Weather looks good. Let’s look at the field.

 

1.       Fulsome (Into Mischief) is making his grade one debut after a solid performance in a grade three race over the Parx track. Working nicely for a top-level trainer, Brad Cox, with a seasoned jockey who has ridden him in the last four races. He has a tough assignment.

2.       Keepmeinmind (Laoban) has been a bridesmaid in his seven races this year. He showed his ability against Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy (GII) but didn’t bring the same energy to the Travers Stakes (GI). He will need to be in the hunt with a hot pace up front to win this one. This is especially true now that Medina Spirit has scratched. His Jockey, Joel Rosario, seems to have found another gear in him. Likely in the money.

3.       Speaker’s Corner (Street Sense) is trying graded company for the first time. Yet, he ran a perfect race in a Saratoga Allowance after a 10-month layoff. The 9-furlong distance may be too much, although his pedigree does not agree. Has the right pace style for a longer race. You must respect Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, especially second time off a layoff. Big question mark but could shock.

4.       Weyburn (Pioneerof the Mile) has only seen success in the grade three Gotham Stakes. Working nicely but needs more to be competitive in this race. Should be quick enough out of the gate to contribute to a solid pace. Next race.

5.       I Am Redeemed (Redeemed) will need divine intervention to win this race. His home track advantage and early speed may help him find his way into the lower rung of an exotic. Then maybe not!

6.       Bourbonic (Bernardini) after upsetting the Wood Memorial at odds over 70-1, he showed his true abilities in the Kentucky Derby (GI) and the Belmont Stakes (GI), where he finished over a combined 31 lengths behind the winners of those races. Jockey Carmouche is ridding sky-high after an injury-driven layoff. He was on him when he won the Wood Memorial. Maybe in the lower end of exotics.

7.       Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) comes into this race after losing the Haskell Stakes (GI) by disqualification. Prat won’t make the same mistake. That race was the only time he was out of the money in five starts in 2021. Forgive that sin, and you have a real contender. His Beyer figures support he is on par with the top ones here. Should win if the pace is modest.

8.       Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) was the victim of the transgression by Hot Rod Charlie in the Haskell Stakes (GI). Yet with only a month off, he came back with a new jockey to almost upset Essential Quality in the Travers Stakes (GI). Santana returns to ride here and will assure that the pace is honest. Likely in the exacta.

9.       Medina Spirit (Protonico) Scratched.

10.     Americanrevolution (Constitution) another New York-bred trying to follow in Tiz the Law’s footsteps. After a bad start at 2, he came back at three to win three in a row. This will be his first time in an open stakes race and graded race. It is a lot to ask. Watch for him next time out.

 

Analysis

With Medina Spirit out, the pace will likely be more moderate. However, a couple coming up from the minors will need to be upfront early for any payoff. This may increase the pace.

It looks like Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie may try to make it a two-horse race. Mott’s entry, Speaker’s Corner, may try to mix it up with these two. Keepmeinmind and Bourbonic will be trying in the stretch, with the former having a better chance to succeed.

 

Here is how I think they will finish:

1.      #7 Hot Rod Charlie (5-2)

2.      #2 Keepmeinmind (8-1)

3.      #8 Midnight Bourbon (5-1)

4.      #3 Speaker’s Corner (12-1)

 

Handigamble

$10 Exacta Box #2, #7 & #8 = $60

$1 Trifecta Box #2, #3, #7 & #8 = $24

$2 Exacta  #2/#3, #7, #8 = $ 6

$10 win #2  = $10

 

Good Luck but keep the day job!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Pattison Canadian International (G1)

 Euro Invaders strong in Pattison Canadian International

By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

After a year hiatus due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, the Pattison Canadian International returns to Woodbine Racetrack. The Grade 1 $600,000 International, one of Woodbine’s top fall races, is a 1 1/2-mile grass journey that has an impressive list of notable winners, including the legendary Secretariat.

The 1973 American Triple Crown champion capped off his illustrious career with a dominant 6 ½-length victory. The margin of victory by “Big Red’ held as a record until 2017 when Bullards Alley won the International by 10 ¾-lengths.

This year’s edition features a field of eight competitors, headlined by defending champion, Desert Encounter, who’s shooting to become a three-time Canadian International winner. The nine-year old is only one of two horses to win consecutive editions of the International, and now looks to match Joshua Tree, the other back-to-back winner who also won it in 2010.

Billed as race nine on a 12-race card which also features the G1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile, a 2021 Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ Challenge Series race with automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Mile on November 6th at Del Mar, the Canadian International is slated for 5:35 pm. Let’s have a look at the field from the rail out.

No.- Horse - Jockey/Trainer – ML

1. Corelli – Kazushi Kimura/Jonathan Thomas – 4-1 – Former European campaigner whose highlight of his first season in North America last year was a third-place finish in the G1 United Nations. Became a stakes winner in his seasonal debut in 2021 winning a listed event at Pimlico and added a graded win last out when running his best race beating rivals here in the G3 Singspiel. He could factor in here.

 

2. Walton Street – Lanfranco Dettori/Charles Appleby – 8-5 - Euro invader exits a pair of Group 1’s where he performed admirably, and before that he won a Group 2 event. The Godolphin-owned runner excels at this distance with four wins, two seconds and three third-place finishes from 11 starts. Dangerous contender.

 

3. Desert Encounter – Daniel Tudhope/David Simcock – 3-1 - Won back-to-back editions of this event in 2018 and 2019. His victory here in ’19 was the last time he has visited a winner’s circle, encompassing a two-year span of 15 races. The multiple graded turf specialist prepped for this race with a runner-up finish as Royal Windsor last month. Given the overall opposition he’s competed against in Europe, a return here to Canada to defend his Canadian International title appears to be a class relief.

 

4. Bluegrass Parkway – Patrick Husbands/Michael Maker – 10-1 - This five-year old rallied from last place to win the 10-furlong Ellis Park Turf Cup last month. That was his first appearance in a stakes race in over two years during which time he was earning small checks in allowance company. Doubt he can make a successful jump in class to have an impact against top level company.

 

5. Primo Touch – Daisuke Fukumoto/Harold LaDouceur – 20-1 - Wired an allowance optional claiming field group eight days ago, winning by five lengths. Has made 38 career starts, but his only graded appearance came two back where he was fifth in the G3 Singspiel. Appears outclassed.

 

6. Fantasioso – Joel Rosario/Ignacio Correas – 8-1 - The two-time Group 3 winner from Argentina hasn’t fared well in graded stakes company since coming to the United States, finishing far back in 3 of 4 events. Did manage to rally up for a second-place in the G2 Belmont Gold Cup Stakes two back, but last out when lowered in class to a listed event, he was all-out in the stretch to grab the show spot. He’ll have to improve a ton here off that last effort to be competitive.

 

7.  Belichick – Luis Contreras/Josie Carroll – 6-1 - Hometown runner has never missed a top-three placing in nine career starts. His lone turf win came last year in the Breeders’ Stakes over this course when he broke maiden ranks with a convincing four-length score, preventing his stable mate, Mighty Heart, from capturing the Triple Crown. Adaptable run style allows him to be placed anywhere in the pack.

 

8.  English Conqueror – Antonio Gallardo/Darwin Banach – 15-1 - Local horse is a maiden winner who has done well when pitted against stakes rivals. Was third in the last year’s Breeders’ Stakes to close out his season and last out, he rallied nicely to grab the place spot in the G3 Singspiel. However, this level of stakes competition is a whole new challenge.

 

ANALYSIS

European invaders have won nine of the last 10 editions of the Canadian International.

2.  Walton Street makes his first trip across the Atlantic for world class connections who are accustomed to winning Group 1/Grade 1 races. The seven-year-old exits a quality race where he finished third after leading through most of the 1 ½-miles event over good turf. The runner-up from that contest returned to win a Group 1 affair, so the form looks good. He has plenty of positives in his corner and is our top call.

 

3.  Desert Encounter looks to put an end to a 0 for 15 losing streak since last winning here in 2019. The elder stateman, most experienced and leading money earner of the group appears to be rounding back into form after finishing second last out at Royal Windsor behind a good filly who is possibly heading to the G1 Arc de Triomphe. Trainer David Simcox has an excellent record (13–5-1-3) with stakes horses at Woodbine.

 

7. Belichick can certainly be labeled as a ‘horse for course’ with a top three finish in all four of his Woodbine turf starts, including winning at this very distance in last year’s Breeders’ Stakes. He can lay close with a stalking style or put in a good sustain from off the pace, but either style will need perfect timing.

 

1.  Corelli received an excellent ride in the Singspiel, getting over from the outside post for a ground saving trip before accelerating through the stretch to win. Drew the rail post and should receive a similar trip without expending too much early effort. However, this a tougher group.

 

WAGER

$10 trifecta key: Walton Street over the other three horses listed 2/1,3,7 ($60).

$10 exacta box: Walton Street-Desert Encounter 1-2 ($20)  

$5 exactas: Walton Street and Desert Encounter over Belichick and Corelli 2,3/1,7 ($20)

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race!