The $1.25 million Travers Stakes is the highlight of the Saratoga meet.
Monikered the “Midsummer Derby,” the 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 event attracts the
leaders of the 3-year-old division.
Seven will line up in the 2021 Travers, including Essential Quality, the
current leader of the division, plus Preakness Stakes runner-up Midnight
Bourbon and the top two finishers of the Ohio Derby (G3).
The Travers is carded as race 12 of 13, with a post time of 6:12 PM EST.
The
collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers offer their choices for first
through third place and our best longshot bombs.
Welcome Friends to The Turk and the Little Turk blog, now in our 14 year of providing handicapping and analysis. I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for giving me an opportunity to handicap the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.
On a personal level, Del Mar was the last track I visited before the pandemic. I was there for the Pacific Classic in 2019. My handicapping, and my love of horse racing, was hit hard last year by the pandemic and the impact it had on the schedule, the field sizes, and life in general. Don't take my lack of blogging to mean I'm not interested in horse racing anymore, I just was struggling to write about races I wasn't that interested in. I've rekindled my passion for racing this summer and I've been handicapping quite a bit as I start to prepare for my favorite meet, Kentucky Downs, and getting ready for Breeders' Cup. I'm not sure if I'll ever get back to writing 50-75 blog posts per year, but no matter how many it is, without a love for racing there can't be any.
Anyways, lets get after this!
There is quantity, but not real quality in this year's edition of the Pacific Classic. Let's take a look at some recent Video just to get a feel for the runners. My main goal of looking at video is to provide context to the past performance running lines. I look for trips, I gage if rank, game, dueled, outbid, dug in. Those are the buzzwords you'll see in the race charts and I like to confirm with my own eyes or identify possible bias in the analysis. You have to remember how many races the "experts" have to review and write notes on, and professional handicappers and racing journalists, how many races they have write about, people get lazy, or better yet, sloppy. If you are going to find overlays, and just as importantly, underlays, you have to look at the information, and video trip handicapping is the compendium to race charts. Can we find value?
The San Diego Handicap G2; 17 July 2021; 1 1/16 Miles Fast Dirt Del Mar
Key Prep: Exiting are Express Train (W), Royal Ship (S), Tripoli (P), Magic on Tap (5), Sherriff Brown (7)
The Cougar II G3; 18 July 2021; 1 1/2 Miles Fast Dirt Del Mar
Exiting: Tizmagician (1), Cupid's Claws (2)
The Monmouth Cup G3; 17 July 2021; 1 1/8 miles Fast Dirt Monmouth
Exiting: Dr. Post (1)
The Santa Anita Handicap G1; 6 March 2021; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt Santa Anita
Contested: Express Train (2), Tizmagician (5), Independence Hall (4),
The Gold Cup G1; 31 May 2021; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt Santa Anita
Contesting: Express Train (3), Royal Ship (2 Hd)
I can't help but favor Express Train based on the San Diego Handicap. The field was bunched and he just showed class when pressed by Royal Ship and Tripoli. Trainer Shirreff's runner has trained well since then and appears to be in excellent form. 9 of 10 in the money on fast dirt, his last seven outings are all consistent G1/G2 efforts, and 4 of 4 in the money at Del Mar. Solid.
Royal Ship (BRZ) is a 5 YO Mandella trainee. No wins and only one try at the distance (The Hollywood Gold Cup) but he looked solid in that outing. No wins in 2 tries at Del Mar. Perfectly capable of winning.
Tripoli is only making 3rd dirt start after 11 turf races from the Kitten's Joy 4 YO. He really went at Express Train in the San Diego Handicap but before that was a $60-70K ALW/OC contestant for 10 races or so. Sadler is showing confidence, I'm not sure I should be based on race charts.
Tizmagician is cutting back from Marathon distances. Nice effort in the Cougar II but it's a different tempo. Mandella/Pratt 28% winners on 29 tries at Del Mar and 36% Winners in rolling year in 90 starts. 11 of 16 in the money on fast dirt.
Dr. Post is a 4 YO Quality Road, and friends of the Turk know that Quality Road is one of my favorite horses of past 15 years. I try to set that bias aside. Dr. Post got a great trip in Monmouth Cup and he flashed serious speed. Pletcher doesn't ship west without a strong belief. First attempt at Classic Distance, First at Del Mar, if there is an upset candidate I like the speed he's going to have to target.
Magic on Tap is slow, inconsistent. Training very sharp at 5F, last win at 7F. If not for Baffert's name I'm not sure I give him much thought. I just don't see he deserves a look in my Exacta but he could be early speed.
I'm tossing Independence Hall (ML 5-1) Cupid's Claw and Sheriff Brown. Independence Hall is just uneven. Perhaps the Blinkers (29% On/23% First Time) may help. Trainer McCarthy 16% on 61 starts 61-180 day layoff and J/T Combo looking for first win in 4 tries.
I'm not thrilled at the betting prospects on this race as much as I am looking forward to seeing who steps up from this group. There are too few stars currently and a Pacific Classic win will make many of these horses a millionaire, which this race has none of.
I'm going to assemble an Exacta long on risk and big on reward. I'm going to put Tripoli/Dr. Post above Express Train, Royal Ship, Tizmagician and Magic on Top: 1-3 OVER 5-4-2-6 (1-3), a $2 bet for $16 or a $20 bet if I box 1-3.
The reality is Express Train should roll, Royal Ship should roll, but that's handicapping. In bet construction you have to say what if, you have to be willing to see the possibilities, and above all else, don't try to be too safe.
The Beverly D. Stakes (G1), one of the premier filly and
mare turf races of the summer, is named after Beverly Duchossois, the late wife
of Arlington Park chairman emeritus Richard Duchossois.
First run in 1987, the race’s winners have been a litany of
top-class mares including Hall of Fame inductee Flawlessly (1991), as well as
Champions Possibly Perfect (1995), Stacelita (2011), Dank (2013), and
Sistercharlie (2018, 2019). Even Mr. D has won the race named after his wife:
in 2010, Eclair de Lune came roaring home to win it in the blue and gold silks
of the chairman.
The 2021 Beverly D. offers a purse of $400,000, and is
carded as the day’s 7th race of 10, to go off at 4:49pm CDT. It drew a field of
seven to compete. There is one horse cross-entered; rail-drawn Bramble Queen is
also entered in the Mike Spellman Memorial Handicap against her fellow
Illinois-breds.
Mean Mary has been one of the top American turf
horses since last year. She has the stamina to handle the mile and three
sixteenths trip well. And, she has early speed — something that should serve
her well.Mean Mary should get an
excellent trip on the front end under strong speed rider (and her regular
pilot) Luis Saez; it looks unlikely for anyone to truly go with her.
Though outside-drawn Oh So Terrible has shown speed
at some points in her career, she hasn’t shown as much pace early and may not
be able to go with Mean Mary even if she tried.
Naval Laughter, with Sophie Doyle in the irons, will
probably rate again.
Aside from pace, it is also a positive that Mean Mary just
won the New York Stakes last out over yielding turf. After all the rains this
week, the course probably will not be firm come Saturday, and it is good to see
she won over yielding going last time. And the horse she beat was none other
than Thundering Nights, a Joseph O’Brien horse who has already come back to win
the Pretty Polly.
In that Pretty Polly, Thundering Nights defeated none other
than Santa Barbara, who ships in to contest the Beverly D. for Aidan
O’Brien. That was Santa Barbara’s first start against older and only her fourth
race ever, a nice form reversal from her flat fifth as the chalk in the Oaks
(G1) at Epsom.
Santa Barbara then returned to win the Belmont Oaks,
overcoming trouble in the lane toget
through and get up to win by half a length over Con Lima. Speaking of races
that have been franked, the Belmont Oaks form was flattered when Con Lima came
back to win the Saratoga Oaks (G1). In short? Santa Barbara’s off-pace style
may be a bit of a liability without a lot of speed entered in this race, but if
anyone does come one to make a race of it with Mean Mary late, it’s Santa
Barbara.
If someone told me the morning of June 3, 2021 that Naval
Laughter would be entered in the Beverly D, much less one of the mid-priced
horses in the race? They’d have heard just that: laughter. But, oh how her
fortunes have changed! She raced once at two, was sold back to her breeders for
just $17,000 last year, and didn’t race at all last year. But trainer Chris
Davis had her ready to roll in that maiden race June 3, and she rolled clear to
win by 19 3/4 lengths in a hand ride.
Though she finished just second behind Fate Factor in an
allowance, she stretched out and went first-time turf in the Modesty. That day
jockey Sophie Doyle settled her off the pace, got her running late, and got her
up to win by half a length over Joy Epifora. It was a good first start against
good horses. The waters get deeper here, of course, especially with the top of
the field. But jockey Sophie Doyle should be able to give her another good
tactical ride, she can stay the trip, and she should find the frame again.
She’ll likely be a more appealing price than Lemista,
who ships out for Chad Brown. Lemista still has yet to prove she has found her
stride in America. She still has some upside in only her third American start,
but has yet to prove she wants longer than a mile and an eighth and hasn’t done
enough on the track to get excited about the inevitable too-short price caused
by those who throw money at Chad Brown horses.
Selections
#2 Mean Mary (9/5)
#4 Santa Barbara (2/1)
#5 Naval Laughter (9/2)
Longshot:In
such a stratified field of six, there are not a lot of serious win candidates
in the field. However, #3 Joy Epifora (8/1) has excellent claims to hit
the board. She hasn’t been much of a winner in general; she has not won since
racing in Argentina in 2019. However, she showed in the Modesty that she has
held her strong form. She sat a little closer to the pace than usual in that
last race, something that tends to bring her better efforts out of her.
Jockey Declan Cannon, who rode Joy Epifora that day, returns
and can give her that sort of a ride not too far behind Mean Mary again. Plus,
she is trained by Ignacio Correas, IV — a trainer who has proven, with the
likes of Kasaqui and Dona Bruja, that he can show up on big days at Arlington
park.
