Handicapper's Corner: 2021 La Canada Stakes (G3)

 La Canada Stakes Picks N' Plays

By: Robert Marks, (@theyreinthegate)

Saturday at 6:30 pm Eastern time is the $200,000 Grade 3 LaCanada Stakes, a filly and mares’ race for 4-year old’s and upward on the dirt at 1 1/16 mile. Held at the Great Race Place-Santa Anita Park, we head in 2021, no fans at Santa Anita just yet because of the Coronavirus Pandemic but hopeful we all soon can return.

This is a short field; however, it looks competitive  which should help you out with your final odds. 

The lightly raced 5-year-old Hard Not to Love is your 2-1 favorite and does nothing but come in the money, having done that in 9 of the 10 races she has run. The 9 in the money finishes were all at Santa Anita. There is a rider change from Mike Smith to Ricardo Gonzales. This might help with boosting the final odds for you if you like this mare.

 

Looking for Value, Mike Smith jumps aboard 8-2 Miss Stormy, a 5-year-old mare. After 5 starts on the Turf she was switched to the dirt surface where she has 3 wins out of 5 starts with 1 at Santa Anita last February. This will be her 2nd start off a layoff and we like the Jockey Change.

 

Fighting Mad, at 9-5 is probably the fastest horse of the field with impressive Dirt figures. Also has run this distance 3 times. Will show early speed for sure.

 

I also expect Proud Emma coming off a Grade 3 win at this distance last time out to be in the mix, trained by high % trainer Peter Miller.

 

I expect Fighting Mad and Miss Stormy D to be the early pacesetters setting up a stretch run fight with Hard Not to Love and Proud Emma.

 

Handigambling

I am going to play around with a $100 total wagering budget on the 3 above horses as follows:

$10 win-#2 Hard Not Love

$10 Exacta Box: 2,3,6

Bonus Longshot Play: $50 to Show on Proud Emma

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Santa Maria Stakes (G2)

Santa Maria Stakes Will Have Forceful Ending

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

This small field of accomplished field of fillies and mares will offer a great race to watch and maybe wager on. With a collection of top jocks and trainers, the race should be run true to each horse’s form. The pace should be honest with the two inside horses inclined for speed and with a front-running style. Tapped shows inclination to engage early, as well. Will they set the race up for a closer? That is the key question to this race.

 

1.       Just a Smidge (Into Mischief) is a long shot with a desire to push the pace. She and jockey, Garcia, will set the pace from the rail. Shortening-up to 8.5 furlongs is to her advantage. May be in the mix until the end.

2.       Paradise Woods (Union Rags) is the class of the field and the prohibitive Morning Line favorite. Her last few races show tactical speed, but early in her career she was prone to lead the pack. She turned in a very big Thoro-Graph number in her last race. Will she bounce this time? Smith is a genius at judging pace. He will likely track Just a Smidge waiting for the opportunity to ponce. She is giving four pounds to the others which may hurt her chances, but the likely winner.

3.       Exuberance (Archarcharch) is the second-long shot and has little form or speed figures to like. She will be competing for fifth.

4.       Tapped (Tapit) is a solid closer who is coming up in company She is versatile with early turn-of-foot and with a powerful late run. She will likely let others set the pace. She could be flying late. An exotic play is in her range.

5.       La Force (Power, GB) finished second to the favorite, Paradise Woods, the last time out in a grade two on the same surface. She conceded the race when she went three-wide closing into the stretch with equal weights with Paradise Woods. With four-pound advantage this time she could make amends. Biggest threat.

The race’s finish may be known in the first furlong. Will a speed duel ensue? Will Mike Smith read the race right?  Likely, Just a Smidge will challenge Mike Smith’s race strategy by controlling the rail and the pace. Paradise Woods will track in second. At the quarter pole, both La Force and Tapped will be making their moves on the two leaders. With a half-a-furlong to go It will be a 3-way-charge to the finish-line.

La Force benefiting from the weight difference will pass Paradise Woods at the wire to win. Tapped will surprise her previous jockey, Mike Smith, with a courageous burst at the end. Unfortunately, she will not be successful but will fill-out the Trifecta.

Here is how they will finish:

1.       La Force (#5)

2.       Paradise Woods (#2)

3.       Tapped (#4)

Handigamble play:

$40 Win and Place on La Force (#5) -------$80.00

$2 Exacta box (#5, # 2, #4) ---$12.00

$4 exacta-part-wheel (#4, #5) over (#2) ----$8.00

Good luck, but keep the day job!

 

Handicapper's Corner: Gamely Stakes (G1)

Uni Hard to Play Against in Gamely Stakes

By: Reinier Macatangay, Let's Waste Money

With trainer Chad Brown dominating the turf racing scene, it is hard to play against him in the Grade 1, $300,000 Gamely Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita. This time he brings in Uni, a 4-year-old filly who comes into Southern California with a 2 for 5 record in North America, along with a second and one third. She is tough.

 

This race is tough too, with a few runners who look like they can win on any given day, but fall short of excellence. Whose turn will it be this weekend? 

 

This write-up will go through each runner.

1) Madam Dancealot – It should be noted she finished ahead of Uni in the Queen Elizabeth Cup (G2) at Keeneland last October. In four races since then, she has performed steadily and did manage to take the Santa Ana Stakes (G2). There is nothing to get too excited about here, although she is a contender.

 

2) Midnight Crossing – The runner-up in the Santa Ana did pick up a win in the Frankel Stakes (G3) last December. She followed up with an eighth-place finish in the Suwanee River (G3) at Gulfstream, and also finished eighth in the Royal Heroine (G3) after the good Santa Ana try. Confusing read.

3) Mopotism – No turf races on record. Bernardini as the damsire is not the greatest sign when searching for grass in the pedigree. While bloodlines do not always pan out and she could love the grass, prefer to pass for now.

4) Sophie P – She tipped out for a clear run in the Royal Heroine but offered no run while finishing sixth. This is probably not a realistic contender.

5) Uni – As stated earlier, she owns two wins in North America. The latest one came this year at Aqueduct in an ungraded stakes race, where TimeformUS awarded her a lofty 125 Speed Figure. Her previous numbers never went above 121. Perhaps Uni is more mature and stronger than in her previous season. She had no pace to work with in the Queen Elizabeth Cup (G2). The main choice.

6) Beau Recall – Royal Heroine effort looks superb in replay, as she came late with a quick outside move and scored the win. Toss out the turf sprint race two starts ago. Before that, she finished behind Madame Dancealot twice when competing in the American Oaks (G1) and Queen Elizabeth Cup, with no pace to help her kick in the latter race. While she does not stand out, it will not be a surprise to see this one come late again and win either. Another solid contender.

7) Hawksmoor – Speedy mare would benefit from taking the lead early. TimeformUS Pace Projector puts her on the lead without a fast pace, but it does not always work out that way. She began the year by finishing second by a nose in an ungraded stakes at Laurel (not Yanny) Park. The 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure earned last November at Del Mar in the Matriarch (G1) is good enough to win this. Yet another contender in a competitive-looking race.

8) Madame Stripes – At least she owns some tactical speed. Plus, her speed figures fit with this group, although none of them stick out except the 123 earned last September in the John C. Mabee Stakes (G2). The connections seem content with racing this mare in mostly one-mile races though, which could hint at distance limitations. Then again, the Mabee effort came at 1 1/8 miles. Also, the TimeformUS trainer rating labels Neil Drysdale as hot. Contender.

Handigambling $100
$40 Win - Uni
$3 Trifecta ($60 in all) – 5 / 1,2,6,7,8 / 1,2,6,7,8

Pass if Uni becomes overbet.