Handicapper's Corner: Santa Anita Oaks (G1)

Seven Fillies Vie in Santa Anita Oaks

By: Laurie Ross, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds

The Santa Anita Oaks (G1) is California’s final prep race for the Kentucky Oaks. The prestigious race has a spectacular roll call. Superstars who have stood in the winner’s circle include Songbird, Beholder, Stellar Wind, Stardom Bound, Rags to Riches, Balance, Sweet Catomine, Excellent Meeting, Serena’s Song and Winning Colors.

This year, a competitive field of seven three-year-old fillies will travel 1 1/16 miles. Six of them won or placed in their last race.

Classy Lassies

ABEL TASMAN (Quality Road - Vargas Girl, by Deputy Minister) made her three-year-old debut in the Santa Ysabel (G3). Unhurried early, the Bob Baffert trainee settled three wide, twelve lengths off this year’s superstar, Unique Bella. Abel Tasman got within a length of her foe, but settled for second place, eight lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Abel Tasman should improve in her second start off the layoff and she’s the one of two stalkers in a race filled with speed.

IT TIZ WELL (Arch - It Tiz, by Tiznow) is looking for her third straight victory. She has won three of four races since December. Her sole loss was to her stablemate of Unique Bella. It Tiz Well won the Honeybee Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park in her last start. She’s been breezing well and her speed figures are improving.

Worth a Look

MOPOTISM (Uncle Mo - Peppy Rafaela, by Bernardini) has won or placed in five of six starts. She was best of the rest in the Las Virgenes (G2) when facing Unique Bella, and bested BC Juvinile Fillies heroine Champagne Room by 1 ¼ lengths. Mopotism returned with a workmanlike win in the Island Fashion Stakes as her Oaks tune-up. She’s been breezing well and out-worked Santa Anita Derby entrant Milton Freewater in their last breeze. Mopotism has speed and will get an inside trip.

Needs Best Effort

MAJESTIC QUALITY (Quality Road - She Nuit All, by Lost Soldier) is still a maiden after eight attempts. However, she placed second in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds after an eventful wide trip. The Keith Desormeaux trainee is one of those hard luck types. You know the kind, off slow, bumped, shuffled wide, checked. You name it.  She tries hard and hopefully, in a smaller field, won’t find as much trouble. Majestic Quality will have to overcome a pace bias and will likely get another wide trip.

It's rare for a venerated trainer like Richard Mandella to enter a last out maiden winner in a Grade 1 Stakes, yet here’s PARADISE WOODS (Union Rags - Wild Forest, by Forest Wildcat). The promising youngster showed improved speed figures in her first two starts. The drawback is that she’s jumping from 5 ½ furlongs to 1 1/16 miles and taking on lofty company. Paradise Woods worked an easy seven furlongs in company on March 30 and returned with an easy three-furlong freshener on April 5. Paradise Woods is a half-sister to the stakes winning turf sprinter Forest Chatter. Her unraced dam is half to the G3 stakes winning turf router Tajaaweed.  Have to consider that Papa Mandella knows something the rest of us don’t.

PRINCESS KAREN (Stay Thirsty - Chitka, by Jade Hunter) will give it her best shot from the outside post. She’s won sprinting against maidens and optional claimers, but couldn’t keep up with the swift pace in the Santa Ynez (G2) and faded to finish a dozen lengths behind Unique Bella. Princess Karen is also stretching to two turns and appears up against it.

BERNINA STAR (Harlan's Holiday - Date to Remember, by Bernardini) needed seven starts to find the winner’s circle. After plenty of second and third placed finishes, James Cassidy’s charge put it all together for a nine length score two starts ago. She was inexplicably switched to turf for her next outing in the China Doll Stakes and was beaten only 3 ¼ lengths. The filly’s speed figures are improving but she be mixing it up early with Princess Karen, Mopotism and possibly Paradise Woods.

Selections:

Only seven entrants and this race looks chalky.  ABEL TASMAN and IT TIZ WELL are the ones to beat. IT TIZ WELL is a pace presser/setter and will likely get the jump on her rival. MOPOTISM and with a good trip, MAJESTIC QUALITY could figure.

#2 IT TIZ WELL (5-2)

#4 ABEL TASMAN (6-5)

#1 MOPOTISM (6-1)

#6 MAJESTIC QUALITY (10-1)

Handigambling:

In “real life” I would avoid playing this race due to the short field and presence of two heavy favorites. The ROI will offer little more than the cost of the bet. Best case scenario is a few WP bets on longshots in hopes of an upset. 

$4 Super Box: #2, #4, #1, #6 = $48

$4 W/P at 4-1 or greater odds: #6, #1, #3 = $24

$28 for lunch or to bet on the Santa Anita Derby.

Handicapper's Corner: Ashland Stakes (G1)

Elated About the Ashland Stakes

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

Race 9: Central Bank Ashland Stakes (G1), three-year-old fillies, one and one sixteenth miles on the dirt, post time 5:40pm EDT

Henry Clay was not just The Great Compromiser, a well-known statesman.  He also owned, bred, and raced horses.  His property was named Ashland, hence the moniker for this race.  His son John continued the tradition of breeding and running horses from their estate.  John was still alive when Day Star (1878) became Ashland Stud's first Kentucky Derby winner.  After his death, Ashland produced Riley (1890) and Alan-A-Dale (1902). 

The name Ashland lives on in Lexington here, through the Ashland Stakes.  This race has been a fertile ground for lilies, as eleven fillies have parlayed an Ashland Stakes victory into a Kentucky Oaks triumph: Come and Go (1945), Real Delight (1952), Hidden Talent (1959), Sally Ship (1963), Blue Norther (1964), Sun and Snow (1975), Optimistic Gal (1976), Blush With Pride (1982), Princess Rooney (1983), Silverbulletday (1999), and Lovely Maria (2015).  Last year's Oaks winner contested the Ashland, but did not win: Cathryn Sophia finished third behind longshot Weep No More, but won the Oaks emphatically the following month.

Eight fillies line up to contend for their share of a $500,000 purse and Kentucky Oaks points (100-40-20-10).  After airing by twelve lengths on debut at Aqueduct last fall, Elate has yet to find the winners' circle again in two starts this year.  But, the Suncoast Stakes was her first start off a two and a half month lay, and she chased a wire-to-wire winner in Tapa Tapa Tapa all the way around.  Next out, in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn, she started poorly but ran on well late.  In short, Elate has some excuses, and some room for improvement third off the layoff.  She also gets a return to rider Jose Ortiz, who rode her in her first two career starts.  If she settles into her customary stalking spot, she should be well set to draft behind the likes of Someday Soon and Tapped, and fulfill the promise she showed in her scintillating debut last year.

Daddys Lil Darling hails from the hot barn of trainer Ken McPeek.  She gave the grass a try last out, but returns to the dirt here.  She has shown solid form going a mile and a sixteenth on dirt, with a win in the Pocahontas (G2) as well as two graded placings last year.  Though that Pocahontas victory came in the mud, her placings in the Alcibiades (G1) and the Golden Rod (G2) did not.  She can run on a fast track.  Though the field is small -- a worry for a closer like Daddys Lil Darling -- there is enough speed to give her a setup, and her maiden victory suggests that rider Robby Albarado can keep her a bit closer if he feels he needs to.  Back to her preferred surface and second off the lay, there's much to like about Daddys Lil Darling.

Trainer Mark Casse sends a pair in here.  Summer Luck scratched out of both the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) to run here instead.  Given her breeding, two turns should be her game.  But, the game of musical chairs has this space wary.  Pretty City Dancer, the other Casse, appeals more.  Yes, her Davona Dale (G2) was not very good -- despite a cracking pace in front of her, she didn't close.  But, that was her only start with blinkers, and she takes them back off here.  For Casse, blinkers off is an excellent move: 27% wins, 65% in the money, and a positive ROI.  On pace, she stands to get some early speed to run at here.  And, as a Tapit half to the long-winded Lear's Princess, Pretty City Dancer has a right to take well to this, her first start at two turns.

It is a bit of a concern that Casse's "A" rider, Julien Leparoux, does not ride; he shows up on west coast shipper Meanie Irenie instead.  But, new rider Joel Rosario has been riding well for Casse lately, and perhaps it was a deliberate rider switch after the clunker in the Davona Dale.  All in all, Pretty City Dancer gets one more chance to prove herself here.

Selections:

#2 Elate (7/2)

#6 Daddys Lil Darling (5/2)

#3 Pretty City Dancer (7/2)

Longshot:  #7 Sailor’s Valentine (12/1) has done her best work from forward -- but does not need the lead, something that will prove useful with Someday Soon and Tapped both loading into the starting gate.  She returns to the dirt here after a solid enough try on turf -- a close second in an allowance at Tampa last month.  That came at a mile and a sixteenth, showing she can get the distance.  Though Sailor’s Valentine's breeding suggests turf may be where she ends up, she has solid enough dirt form from last year to make this worth a try.  And, she has something no other filly in the field has: a win at Keeneland.  Coming out on top against this field will not be easy, but the best from Sailor’s Valentine may get her on the podium at long odds.

 

Handicapper's Corner: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

Untapped Gris Gris Down in the Bayou

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Rachel Alexandra Stakes - Grade II - $200K – 1&1/16 miles - 3 Year Old Fillies

Welcome to New Orleans and The Fair Grounds three days prior to Fat Tuesday and the Mardi Gras. The weather should be ideal for the race today with sunshine, light breezes and a dry fast track.

Four of the runners have seen one another in the Silverbulletday Stakes last month for a rousing run through the mud. This may be a different test today. Farrell won by 2.75 over a long closing #6-Wicked Lick and the workhorse of the group, #7-Gris Gris. The new rivals include , #5-Valadorna, the runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies,  #3-Shane’s Girlfriend, winner of the Delta Downs Princess and the Desormeaux’s California filly, #4-Majestic Quality who remains a maiden after six tries in California. 

I think we will see something similar to the Sulverbullitday as there are three who like to be on or near the front. #7-Gris Gris set the pace throughout last time with good fractions to finish third.  She does good work in front but has been known to reel in rivals when setting off the pace. #2-Farrell is a pace setter or leader when winning and tracked #7-Gris Gris down for the win last out.

#1-Untapped disappointed last time and that may have been the muddy track. She did not run up near the front as her past races show and appeared tired at the mile. With a dry surface she may shine better. Geroux loves this track and I expect #1 Untapped will not be looking at a lot of hindquarters. 

#3-Shane’s Girlfriend looks to go along with the leaders. If that is going to be the scenario I will look for the closing type and for me it is #5-Valadorna. This Curlin filly has the ability to sit late in the running and still progress. She’s been first or second in every outing and done well with Leparoux up. #6-Wicked Lick (love the name) is a plodder who can catch tiring runners but, I wouldn’t count on it for today. #4-Majestic Quality is a mystery to me but Desormeaux ‘n Desormeaux have pulled off some great wins at stakes races. Keith is 14% WINS AND 45% ITM in graded stakes company and a +2.77 ROI. The only person close to that number is Berny Flint (Gris Gris) with +1.22 ROI for graded stakes. 

Let’s bet:

$30 to win #5    $4 exacta  1,5 with 1,5,4,7

$3 trifecta – 5 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,7,3,4

I’m going to save some money out of this race and play the Risen Star.

Good Luck.