Friday, February 24, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2)

Untapped Gris Gris Down in the Bayou

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan Member

Rachel Alexandra Stakes - Grade II - $200K – 1&1/16 miles - 3 Year Old Fillies

Welcome to New Orleans and The Fair Grounds three days prior to Fat Tuesday and the Mardi Gras. The weather should be ideal for the race today with sunshine, light breezes and a dry fast track.

Four of the runners have seen one another in the Silverbulletday Stakes last month for a rousing run through the mud. This may be a different test today. Farrell won by 2.75 over a long closing #6-Wicked Lick and the workhorse of the group, #7-Gris Gris. The new rivals include , #5-Valadorna, the runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies,  #3-Shane’s Girlfriend, winner of the Delta Downs Princess and the Desormeaux’s California filly, #4-Majestic Quality who remains a maiden after six tries in California. 

I think we will see something similar to the Sulverbullitday as there are three who like to be on or near the front. #7-Gris Gris set the pace throughout last time with good fractions to finish third.  She does good work in front but has been known to reel in rivals when setting off the pace. #2-Farrell is a pace setter or leader when winning and tracked #7-Gris Gris down for the win last out.

#1-Untapped disappointed last time and that may have been the muddy track. She did not run up near the front as her past races show and appeared tired at the mile. With a dry surface she may shine better. Geroux loves this track and I expect #1 Untapped will not be looking at a lot of hindquarters. 

#3-Shane’s Girlfriend looks to go along with the leaders. If that is going to be the scenario I will look for the closing type and for me it is #5-Valadorna. This Curlin filly has the ability to sit late in the running and still progress. She’s been first or second in every outing and done well with Leparoux up. #6-Wicked Lick (love the name) is a plodder who can catch tiring runners but, I wouldn’t count on it for today. #4-Majestic Quality is a mystery to me but Desormeaux ‘n Desormeaux have pulled off some great wins at stakes races. Keith is 14% WINS AND 45% ITM in graded stakes company and a +2.77 ROI. The only person close to that number is Berny Flint (Gris Gris) with +1.22 ROI for graded stakes. 

Let’s bet:
$30 to win #5    $4 exacta  1,5 with 1,5,4,7
$3 trifecta – 5 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,7,3,4

I’m going to save some money out of this race and play the Risen Star.
Good Luck.

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