Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Florida Derby (G1)

 Will Fierceness Spring Back in the Florida Derby?

By: Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)

As we enter the end of March, on Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Sunny Florida, we have the Grade 1 Florida Derby, a Grade 3 dirt race at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds.

In order to qualify for entry into the Kentucky Derby, you must accumulate points earned in Derby Prep races. For this race, points are given to 1st place through 5th place (100, 50, 25, 15, 10). The Florida Derby will go off as Race 14 at 6:42 pm Eastern time. Here is a look at the 11-horse field.

Fierceness

(8-5) for Trainer Todd Pletcher and Owner Mike Repole will likely go off as the favorite. This colt finished 3rd at Gulfstream Park while Hades who won setting a slow pace. He did not show the brilliance he showed in earlier wins, including the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  However, He has been working out well since the Holy Bull defeat. If he runs his BC Juvenile race, he wins this race.  He will be coming out of the 10^th position in the starting gate. Veteran rider Johnny Velazquez is the Jockey. Look for Johnny V to waste no time getting Fierceness out early and near the leaders at the first turn.

Hades (7-2)

will be piloted by Paco Lopez. Trained by Joseph Orseno, this colt has 3 wins out of 3 starts, winning all three at Gulfstream Park, including the Holy Bull Stakes. His speed figures are only so-so but he does have an undefeated record. Some horses just find a way to win. I like his post position (2) and think he will sit just outside the leaders before making his move late. Also, Paco Lopez knows Gulfstream Park probably better than any jockey and is very comfortable here. He knows they already beat Fierceness last time out.

Le Dom Bro at 15-1 and has 4 seconds out of 4 starts over the Gulfstream Park. Ran an impressive 2^nd at the Fountain of Youth, going off as a 27-1 longshot. With relatively unknown trainer and jockey connections, I think this horse gets overlooked on the board and will sit close to his morning line odds. Had only one bad start out of six starts, on a muddy track at Aqueduct. His Sire is Mucho Macho Man, who always gave an honest effort, and we expect the same from his son. Look for Le Dom Bro to sit mid-pack before making his move late. A must-use in your exotics.

Looking at others you might want to look at Frankie’s Empire at 12-1. He was third in the Fountain of Youth (at Gulfstream) and beat le Dom Bro at 7 furlongs when he won the Swale Stakes.  Worth putting into your trifecta and superfecta box selections. His sire is Classic Empire who has an impressive 23% dirt route winners.

 

Summary

If you believe in Fierceness, he rebounds and wins this, unless you just toss him and hope to get lucky with Hades and others. For us, we will believe in Fierceness and think Johnny V puts him in position for a win. We will go with a straight-win bet and hope we hit the Tri.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Fierceness

$2Trifecta Box: Fierceness, Hades, Le Dom Bro, Frankie’s Empire (total bet $48)

$2 place: Le Dom Bro