Handicaper's Corner: 2024 Whitmore Stakes (G3)

 Speed wins the Whitmore Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Oaklawn Park is on the top of my list of the tracks I like to visit. The city of Hot Springs oozes with Americana. It has the feel of a “blue-collar-Saratoga” with great downtown restaurants and mineral baths. If you like to camp—RV, Tent, or cabin—the KOA outside of Hot Springs welcomes horseplayers with free round-trip transportation to the track.

The fans take the “best in show” prize. Coming from surrounding states, they bring that rural, farming feel and wonderful southern hospitality. Horse racing pleasures a full range of fans, save those who only like turf racing. Oaklawn does not have a grass course.

The weather in Hot Springs for Saturday offers 69 degrees with around 6% chance of rain. Track should be “Oaklawn fast.” Some handicappers have even suggested that the track slopes down from the top of the stretch to the finish line. Although this has never been corroborated.

Let’s look at the field.

 

 

1.   Osbourne (Tapiture) has a bad post for a horse that does best running from behind. Although speed should dominate the field, he has too much to do from the one hole. Pass

2.   Tejano Twist (Practical Joke) has some speed but will likely let the others dual it out, hoping to run past them at the wire. Hampered by post position. The 6-furlong race makes it hard for that scenario to work out for him. Is dangerous and should be in the money.

3.   Ryvit (Competitive Edge) with Keith Asmussen up for his Dad he, may be the most dangerous speed contender. Keith has a 3-for-4 when riding him. His experience in the grade three Amsterdam at Saratoga and a grade two win at Pimlico should help. Second off, a layoff for Dad will not hurt. Likely to make it 4-for-5 if he doesn’t burn out. Maybe wire-to-wire?

4.   Surveillance (Constitution) has a comfort style of following the pack until it is time to run for the wire. Working OK. Has shown he can handle a grade three sprint event. Maybe a little too slow for these. Breeding is nice. Could be in the money.

5.   Ninja Warrior (Speightstown) keeps hot jockey Torres with an Oaklawn win percentage of 19% at Oaklawn. The horse likes Oaklawn, as well, with a 4 wins out of seven starts here. Good early speed, but may get caught up in a speed dual. Doesn’t look like a winning candidate, but not shocked if in exotic bets.

6.   Jaxon Traveler (Munnings) keeps Flavin Pratt over Rosario, who is not racing in the race. He has experience at the grade three level. Working Ok. Second best of Asmussen’s entries may try to press pace so his other horse has a better chance to be there. Pass.

7.   Cowan (Kantharos) claimed last out at Aqueduct and returns to grade three company at which he did his job. Hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since last October. Gets weight advantage. Gets new jockey, which may help. Heavy lift for this one, but anything is possible.

 

Summary

Given Oaklawn Park track which can offer a bias to speed, winning from off the pace will be difficult with the exception of a perfect ride and a little luck.

Three horses should be vying for the lead down the backside. If the pace is fair, the winner will come from this group or a well-timed moved from the second rung of horses. Closers will be trying.

Here is how I think they will finish:

3. Ryvit  (2-1)

4. Surveillance (6-1)

2.  Tejano Twist (9-5)

7. Cowan (10-1)

 

Handigamble ($100)

$40  Win  #3 =$40               

$2 Tri Box #3, #4, #2 and #7 = $48

$2 Tri Key         #3 with #4,#2,#7 with #4, #2, #7 = $12

Good luck but keep the day job.