Rising Stars in Louisiana
By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds
The
Risen Star Stakes (G2) is the second leg of
three Kentucky Derby prep races held at the Fair Grounds. The contest is the first 2019 Kentucky Derby qualifier under the
50-20-10-5 points system.
A
full field of 14 will head to the post. Gun It drew in after Kingly was
scratched.
The Favorite:
War Of Will just keeps getting better. After the
son of War Front switched from turf to dirt, he’s beaten rivals by a combined 9
lengths, including a run-away triumph in the LeComte. War of Will likes to press
the pace, and to maintain that running style, Tyler Gaffalione will need to
send him early to get a good position from the far outside post. Distance isn’t
a factor, but War of Will needs a sharp break from the far outside.
Back for More
Plus Que Parfait had a bumper car start breaking from
the gate in the LeComte. He placed an even fifth, despite having an outside
trip the entire race. This time around, the son of Point of Entry drew the
rail. Plus Que Parfait has the speed to
stay closer to the pace, if Leparoux will use it, so maybe we’ll see
improvement this time around.
Also
returning from the LeComte, Roiland
took his sweet time coming out of the gate, followed the pack for much of the
race, and passed a few tired horses in the stretch. The Amoss trainee is a hard
luck horse. He has a habit of breaking slow, bumping, you name it.
After
winning his maiden, Chase the Ghost
ran evenly in the LeComte after bumping at the start and a wide trip. Not
impressed that Lanerie abandons horse to stick with the other Stewart entry
Frolic More. Chase the Ghost has slowly improving speed figures, and the
farther the better. Don’t count out closers from the Stewart barn!
Hog Creek Hustle looked good hustling past tired
horses to earn a runner-up check in the LeComte. In his last two starts, while
he closed with a fury, he didn’t make up any ground on the winners. A fast
early pace would help, but I think he’s more one-paced than furious closer.
Manny Wah is a half-brother to Lookin’ at Lucky.
That being said, so far, he’s been a step below the top competition. I’m not
convinced he wants two turns and he may have company on the pace.
Seasonal Debuts
Mr. Money was ambitiously placed in the BC
Juvenile, and placed a credible fourth, after a poor trip. He’s been breezing
well at Fairgrounds, but again appears in tough in his first start off a
layoff. Only two horses in the last 13 years has pulled this off. Gun Runner
was the latest. Don’t think he can win
it, but Mr. Money might place in the exotics.
Limonite is bred for turf, but has done just
fine over the dirt. He’s had tough luck, beaten a neck in two of four starts.
Limonite closed from the clouds to finish third in the KY Jockey Club Stakes,
and his final Trakus numbers were faster than Signalman’s and Plus Que
Parfait’s. Steve Asmussen gave Limonite two quick breezes for the colt’s 2019
debut, including a second-to-last bullet. Additionally, Brian Hernandez, Jr.
takes over the reins.
Logical Longshots
Country House didn’t beat much in his last start,
but boy, did he do it impressively. Breaking from post 1, Country House took a
left turn, brushed the rail, and promptly found himself over six lengths behind
the field. Saez gave Country House time to find his stride, then circled the
field to power home by 3 1/2 lengths. Not impressive enough? How about the fact
that his first quarter was 25.13 and his last was 23.78 over a speed-favoring
track? Has longshot appeal.
Now
for something completely different. If you’ve seen Henley's Joy’s past performances, you’ll note the son of Kitten’s
Joy has done quite well as a turf horse. Many, including my esteemed colleague
considers him an automatic toss. Not so fast. After multiple unsuccessful tries
on turf, Henley’s Joy’s dam won her maiden in her first attempt on dirt.
Kitten’s Joy has 26 dirt stakes winners, and Henley’s Joy looks comfortable
breezing on dirt. Mike Maker captured the 2015 Risen Star with International
Star and doesn’t ship for the fun of it. The question is, how will Henley’s Joy
handle the dirt kickback? Guess we’ll find out. Longshot potential.
Not Gonna Get’em Today
Owendale is ready to take a step forward after
a professional victory over Frolic More and Gun It. He doesn’t need the lead to
win and the duo of Cox & Bridgmohan
are hitting at 42% together. On the negative side, Owendale’s late pace speed
figures aren’t all that and he’s previously finished behind Roiland and
Limonite. He’ll have to step up his game to run with the big boys.
Frolic More
looked just ok in his 3 year old debut. He bobbled at the start, but
made up some ground to finish a clear second to Owendale. Nice, but nothing
spectacular. He’s another that will need to improve dramatically to win, but
could take home a minor award with improvement second off the layoff. On the
other hand, the outside post won’t help.
Gun It has shown shades of green in every start, and
it cost him victories in two of his three starts. The far outside post in the
Risen Star won’t do the pretty gray colt any favors. Talented, but this quirky
son of Tapit (who else?) needs to get his head into the game, much. Maybe
blinkers would sort him out.
Dunph has shown moderate ability against restricted
and listed runners. He was stuck on the outside in the Springboard mile and ran
out of oats in the stretch. Appears a cut below.
Selections
Limonite? I admit, he wasn’t my
first choice for the top spot. But as much as I’ve become a believer in War of Will, that far outside post
concerns me. I like Limonite’s breeze pattern coming into the Risen Star and
the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is a key race. Plus, the jock switch could be
the key to a breakthrough win.
Country
House, my
next pick for the top spot, was ultra-impressive
while breaking his maiden. Will he regress off the 123 late pace Brisnet speed
figure? Here’s a clue: his post-race breezes were slower than pre-race. Maybe
he’s that good, but let him prove it.
Henley’s Joy is another interesting
horse, and I like his smooth gate over the dirt. Note that both War of Will and Country House
made a successful transition to dirt from turf.
Track bias
and race history: In the last seven years,
horses who pressed the pace or settled in mid-pack were victorious in in the
Risen Star. Only one deep closer was successful. Pace setters generally falter
but have placed second through fourth. Winners broke from posts 1, and 4
through 10, with two each from the middle posts of 6 and 7. The Risen Star hero placed no worse than
fourth in their previous start, which was usually in January.
#10 Limonite (10/1)
#14 War of Will (5/2)
#9 Country House (20-1)
#5 Henley's Joy (10-1)
Handigambling
The
Risen Star is a great betting opportunity. The prohibitive favorite is stuck on
the far outside in a full field, and some intriguing new faces will take him
on. There isn’t a ton of speed in the Risen Star; Manny Wah will likely set the
pace with Owendale, War of Will and Gun It in the mix. Most of the field will
settle into position behind the top flight, while Frolic More and Hog Creek
hustle will do their best running late.
With
a large field, start with reverse handicapping. Toss the bottom feeders, those
whose overall speed figures and last few races aren’t up to par. Then concentrate
on the remaining horses.
$0.20
Super Key: #10/ #14, #9, #5, #1, #3, #6 = $24
$0.20
Super Key: #14/ #10, #9, #5, #1, #3, #6
= $24
$5
Across the board (4-1 or greater): #10, #9, #5 = $45
$7
for a hurricane rum drink.
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