Handicapper's Corner: Sham Stakes (G3)

More Baffert Babies in the Sham Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

The Sham Stakes (G3) was named in honor of the 1973 underdog shadowed Secretariat through the Triple Crown series.  The seal brown, well-bred colt finished second to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby, despite bashing his head against the starting gate so hard he lost two teeth. Sham’s time under the wire was a sub 2:00 and faster than Monarchos' winning time in 2001. In any other year, Sham would have been a Triple Crown winner.  Sham was a superstar in his own right, equaling the track record for 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby. 

The 2019 Sham Stakes awards points as a Kentucky Derby qualifier.  Most of the Sham Stakes victors have continued their careers as sprinter/milers. Only two colts have hit the board in both the Sham and the Kentucky Derby; Empire Maker finished second in both races in 2003 and 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham during his successful trip to Louisville.

This year, seven three-year-old colts will run a mile over the Santa Anita main track. A trio of trainers each brings two colts to the party.

Bob Baffert has conditioned three of the last five Sham Stakes winners. This year, he sends out the much-hyped, even-money favorite Coliseum and Much Better, who switches back to dirt after two turf starts.

Let’s start with Coliseum. The son of Tapit out of the multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Game Face made his racing debut at seven furlongs. He went gate to wire, striding out to win his debut by 6 3/4-lengths.  Coliseum earned a lofty Brisnet late-pace speed figure of 102.  The pretty gray colt has been firing off solo bullet works like a machine gun. 

Much Better, the other Baffert entry won his debut at 6 1/2 -furlongs on dirt then switched to turf, where he placed second in the Zuma Beach Stakes after a stretch battle.  The son of Pioneerof The Nile had an adventurous trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, where he was in tight, bumped and pushed wide. He decided enough was enough and checked in 17 lengths behind the winner.  Like Coliseum, Much Better is out of a graded stakes winning sprinter. Much Better’s breeze pattern is slower than Coliseum’s, but the dark bay colt did fire off two recent back-to-back bullet works.

Trainer Peter Miller also brought a duo of 3-year-olds to the Sham. In his first start for Miller, Gray Magician stretched out to a mile and dazzled with a 9 1/2-length victory over a maiden field at Del Mar, earning a late-pace speed figure of 94. The son of Graydar is out of the stakes-winning miler Burg Berg, and he’s a full brother to last year’s R.B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner Lombo.  

  

Miller’s other contestant is the game front-runner Savagery. The son of Bellamy Road is the most experienced colt in the field, with six starts under his girth. He placed second in the Sunny Slope and Bob Hope (G3), but raced greenly in the Cash Call Futurity, blowing the first turn while wiping out competitors, lugging in through the stretch, and finally deciding he had enough and backing out of it. Savagery finished fourth but was placed fifth after a DQ.  The cut back to seven furlongs should help.

Keith Desormeaux trains longshots Sueno and Easy Shot. Sueno stretched successfully to a mile in the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate in his first start since August. He draws the golden rail and Keith’s brother Kent switches from regular mount Easy Shot to Sueno. 

Easy Shot is the 30-1 longshot of the Sham Stakes. The son of Trappe Shot showed improvement in his last two starts, high-end maiden claimers, and he won his last at 6 1/2-furlongs. Although he’s kept lesser company, Easy Shot’s late pace speed figures fit with the rest of the field.  In his last breeze, Easy Shot flanked his workmate before drawing off in the lane under mild urging. Bejarano rides for the first time. 

Poor Gunmetal Gray. In his debut,  he was run over by Roadster and finished ten lengths back. Second time out at a mile, the son of Exchange Rate won easily at a mile by 6 3/4- lengths.  Fresh off his maiden score, the pretty gray colt faced Game Winner, and while he wasn’t going to catch his rival, Gunmetal Gray got up for second place. In his last start, the Hollendorfer trainee broke from post 11 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and eventually made his way up to fifth place behind Game Winner. Gunmetal Gray cuts back to a mile and gets a jock switch to Mike Smith. 

Selections:

So, the ultimate question is will Coliseum regress off his huge late pace speed figure? Will he vie for the lead or sit off the pace? Gunmetal Gray is the class of the field, and Mike Smith takes over. He wasn’t going to get close to Game Winner, but he did finish second on the American Pharoah and fifth in a full field in the BC Juvie. Easy Shot is an interesting horse. Yes, he’s been running in claiming races, but the $80K level isn’t much different than a maiden special.

#2 GUNMETAL GRAY (5-2)

#5 COLISEUM (1-1)

#1 SUENO (20-1)

#4 EASY SHOT (30-1)

Handigambling:

Overwhelming favorites do get beat – just look at what happened to Audible in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. If you had boxed him with the winner and third place horses, the ones most likely to finish in the money, you would have received a nice payout.  

When there’s an overwhelming favorite in the race and looks better on paper, I like to box them with the horses most likely to benefit if the favorite comes up short.  

$100 virtual ThoroFan currency

$4.00 Super box - #2, #5, #1, #4 = $96.00