Handicapper's Corner: Zenyatta Stakes (G1)

 Fillies Ready, Willing and Able in Zenyatta Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Racing fans are treated to a number of graded stakes during the opening weekend of Santa Anita’s fall racing meet. Among them is the Zenyatta Stakes, named for the superstar mare whose spent her racing career beating up on other fillies and colts in California. The race was previously named in honor of champion Lady’s Secret. 

Zenyatta captured the 1 1/16 mile event a record three times. Four years later, the great Beholder equaled the feat but was blanked from a fourth victory by her nemesis, Stellar Wind, who won by a neck in an exciting duel.  

This year, six fillies and mares will vie for the $300,000 purse and an entry into the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.  Let’s take a look at the field. Morning line odds weren’t available at the time of publication.

Bob Baffert sends out the 2017 Champion Three Year Old Filly, ABEL TASMAN. This year, the champ has captured two of three starts, the Ogden Phipps and Personal Ensign Stakes back east.  The chink in Abel Tasman’s armor is her 3-1-2-0 record at Santa Anita. She won her maiden at the track but placed second in the Santa Ysabel and Santa Anita Oaks before capturing the Kentucky Oaks. Baffert has kept the daughter of Quality Road competing on the east coast for much of her career.

  

Baffert’s other contestant is VALE DORI (ARG), who placed third in the Zenyatta in 2016. The six-year-old mare appears to have lost a step this year, as she hasn’t won in four tries, even against softer company. Val Dori will go to the post in a set of shiny new blinkers to regain her competitive focus. She’s likely entered to take the early heat off Abel Tasman.

LA FORCE (GER) could be Abel Tasman’s main competition. Despite her turf breeding, the German-bred filly has found her calling on the dirt. She’s captured only one race this year, an optional claimer over this course at the beginning of the year, but the Paddy Gallagher trainee recorded a couple of second place finishes in the Beholder Mile and Clement L. Hirsch behind Unique Bella.

In her most recent outing, SHENANDOAH QUEEN trampled Val Dori in the restricted Tranquility Lake Stakes by over eight imposing lengths.  The John Sadler trainee is a cut below Abel Tasman and La Force, but she draws the rail and the services of Tyler Baze, whose strength is riding early pace types. Note that the only times that Shenandoah Queen has hit the board was when was on the lead.

The two fillies bringing up the rear, are LEMOONA and FOOL'S PARADISE. Lemoona owns maiden and optional claiming victories. She was last seen finishing a distant 8 3/4 lengths behind the winner in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines.

Fools Paradise also owns two wins, a maiden, and optional claiming race. She was beaten a combined 24 lengths in her last two starts, a pair of Grade 2 races.

SELECTIONS

This should be easy pickings for ABEL TASMAN, but upsets happen.

SHENANDOAH QUEEN may take the early lead, with VALE DORI sent to soften her up. ABEL TASMAN may be reserved behind the pair, perhaps hanging out with LA FORCE. Look for Abel Tasman and La Force to make their move around the turn. 

#2 ABEL TASMAN

#3 LA FORCE

#1 SHENANDOAH QUEEN

HANDIGAMBLING

It’s tough to see beyond last year’s 3YO champ winning this, but that’s why we have horse racing. If Vale Dori decides to cave early and leave Shenandoah Queen on the lead, that filly could get brave, and vice versa. In another scenario, Abel Tasman may be forced to chase a swift early pace and be overtaken by La Force.

Watch the odds as they near the gate. The most likely to finish in the top three are the ones mentioned above. Vale Dori may feel renewed with blinkers, and if she has double-digit odds, toss her into the play.  

If you plan to play, do a $10 trifecta or superfecta bet, your return will be much higher than the penny pinching $2 or $4 play.