Handicapper's Corner: Kentucky Turf Cup (G3)

Turf Routers Shine in Kentucky Turf Cup 

By: Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off

The Kentucky Turf Cup gives a chance for older turf routers to shine.  It will be run for the 27th time this year, and has always covered a mile and a half on the grass.  The race offers a $400,000 purse, or $750,000 for Kentucky-bred horses.  (Only Some In Tieme, who was bred in Brazil, is ineligible for the higher purse).
 

The race drew an overflow field of sixteen, including last year's winner Oscar Nominated.  Between Oscar Nominated and 2015-2016 winner Da Big Hoss trainer Mike Maker has won the last three editions of the Kentucky Turf Cup, and empties the shedrow for this year's addition.  In addition to last year's champion Maker also conditions Bronson, Bigger Picture, and Soglio in the main field, and Markitoff two deep on the also-eligible list. 

The weather through the week calls for rain, suggesting that not only is affinity for Kentucky Downs a plus factor, but so is the ability to run over ground with some give.

Oscar Nominated won last year, and may prove tough to beat once again given his form and his tactical versatility.  He hails from the barn of consistent turf stayer trainer Mike Maker, and his own form at a mile and a half has been strong: in five starts at the distance, he has two wins and three second-place finishes.  One of those wins came in this race last year.  One of those second-place finishes came over soft ground; he ran second behind Bullard’s Alley’s freakish effort last year’s Canadian International, run over soft going.  His form over the Kentucky Downs oval is beyond reproach, as well; Oscar Nominated has started twice there, and has a Kentucky Turf Cup win and a Dueling Grounds Derby score to his name.  He will likely go off the favorite, but the race looks tailor-made for him.

Big Bend is unproven in a bog, but otherwise has a lot going for him.  He went gate-to-wire in last year’s Dueling Grounds Derby, and now returns to the site of that triumph.  There isn’t a whole lot of early gas in this race, making it possible that he could get that sort of trip again.  But?  Even though that was a frontrunning score, he does not have to be on the front end to succeed.  Big Bend proved that next out in the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland, where he rallied from off the pace to win.  That race, in addition to an allowance victory last year, also proves he has twelve-furlong stamina.  The connections also bode well for Big Bend.  Tom Proctor is choosy and successful with his Kentucky Downs shippers.  And rider Drayden Van Dyke is both one of the hottest riders in the country, and adept at riding Kentucky Downs when he ships out there.  He also has rapport with Big Bend already; he rode the son of Union Rags in both the Dueling Grounds Derby and the Sycamore.

Patterson Cross needs a defection from the main field in order to draw in, but if he gets a single scratch in front of him, he can win.  Patterson Cross is a closer who matches well on speed with these foes, and reliably fires a smart closing rally.  He also has proven mile and a half stamina.  Though he has yet to win at the distance, he has frequently finished in the frame, including finishing third beaten only a neck by Sadler’s Joy in the Pan American (G2) last year.  Patterson Cross is fit; he actually cuts back from the thirteen-furlong John’s Call Stakes at the Spa last out, in which he finished beaten only a length after a tough trip late. He needs a bit of luck to draw in, but if he does, don’t let him sneak off the also-eligibles unnoticed.

Selections:

#6 Oscar Nominated (7/2)

#12 Big Bend (10/1)

#13 Patterson Cross (12/1)

Longshot:  Between the rain in the forecast and the generally good record of closers in route races at Kentucky Downs, #11 My Bariley (20/1) should have plenty of say down the lane.  Though he was off the board in his only start at Kentucky Downs, toss it with confidence: the race was his juvenile debut, and it was a sprint. Sprints over the course tend to favor speed, and beyond that, My Bariley is a proven late runner.  He also thrives in a bog; it rained all week leading up to his sharp late-running victory in the Hawthorne Derby last year.