Friday, August 11, 2017

Handicapper's Corner: Beverly D. Stakes (G1)

O'Brian's Rain Goddess Storms Into Beverly D. 

Reinier Macatangay, Thoughts on Racing, Life and More

European shippers always make Grade I turf races a more interesting affair. Take the 1 3/16th-mile $600,000 Beverly D. Stakes (GI) on Saturday at Arlington Park for example, as Rain Goddess gives bettors something to think about. Her runner-up finish to Enable in the Irish Oaks (GI) makes her intriguing.

However, Post 10 in an Arlington turf route is not exactly ideal. She needs to be a few lengths better than these to overcome a wide trip (and she could be). Nine other fillies will hope to take advantage.

Here is a rundown of the field and a short conclusion.

1) Dacita (4-1) - Tough to take her at 4-1. But those odds could drift up. She disappointingly finished sixth to Hawksmoor in the New York S. (GII) and missed as the 2-1 favorite in the Beaugay S. (GIII). Hawksmoor received an uncontested lead in both races. Dacita can rebound in this spot, but she needs more pace.

2) Prado’s Sweet Ride (30-1) - A rail trip helped secure a second-place finish against Dona Bruja in the Modesty Handicap (GIII). Yet, the winner did it in a hand ride and appears again here. Nothing in her form suggests she can win against this group. If she must be used, limit to the bottom of the superfecta.

3) Kitten’s Roar (12-1) - How often do bettors see a horse owned by the Ramseys in a turf race at 12-1? One’s opinion of her depends on how the New York S. is viewed. Did Hawksmoor get an absolutely perfect trip up front? Then Kitten’s Roar had an excuse and did well to close for third.

4) Dona Bruja (7-2) - The hype surrounding this mare is obviously strong. Consider though, the questionable field strength of her Modesty and Mint Julep Handicap (GIII) wins. Modesty runner-up Prado’s Sweet Ride looks so weak on paper that she ends up at 30-1 on the morning line here.

5) Grand Jete (6-1) - Like Dona Bruja, this one receives a few question marks based on who she has defeated. Two of her three North American wins came in allowance races. The Eatontown S. (GIII) score appears nice on paper, but it came against Light in Paris and a washed-up Zipessa. But, she can win too.

6) Zipessa (15-1) - While she did pick up a third-place finish against Grand Jete two starts back, she just lost the Robert G. Dick Memorial (GIII) at close to even-money odds. An unlikely turnaround is needed.

7) Rainha Da Bateria (6-1) - On paper, her class seems below the best, which makes the 6-1 morning line odds strange. Note her lone two wins since 2015 came at Woodbine in Grade II events. For those looking for positives, Chad Brown does train this mare and Jose Ortiz wins a lot these days. Still going to pass.

8) Sarandia (30-1) - No Lasix for this German invader. Few casual bettors will even bother to watch one of her European races, but she did display some speed in the Preis der Badener Hotellerie & Gastronomie (look for her jockey in the yellow cap). The presence of Hawksmoor up front makes her task difficult here.

9) Hawksmoor (9/2) - She has turned into a front-running winning machine in 2017. In the Beaugay, she defeated Dacita and Rainha Da Bateria. The New York win came against Kitten’s Roar and Dacita again. But, she accomplished those wins on uncontested leads. Perhaps Zipessa or Sarandia can give pressure.

10) Rain Goddess (5-1) - A race like this is not complete without an Aidan O’Brien European shipper. As mentioned on top, she finished second to one of the best horses in the world in Enable. No, she never seriously threatened Enable for more than a moment, but European turf races are on another level. The main concern comes from this outside post position, which is not ideal. She might overcome it on class.


Rain Goddess, Hawksmoor, Grand Jete, Kitten’s Roar and Dacita seem appropriate for horizontal wagers. Arranging them vertically will be difficult.

Handigambling ($100)

$40 Win - Rain Goddess
$30 Exacta - Rain Goddess over Grand Jete
$30 Exacta - Rain Goddess over Kitten’s Roar

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