Handicapper's Corner: Belmont Stakes (G1)

ThoroFan Handicappers Brainstorm the Belmont Stakes

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers are back to take a shot at the 2016 Belmont Stakes.  The trio of ThoroFan Chairman Michael Amo, South Florida Thorofan handicapper Jeff Cobb and Dylan Jarmulowicz of WirePlayers.com picked Exaggerator as the spoiler in their Preakness picks.

Below, the ThoroFan handicappers offer their selections for first through third place, plus their best longshot bomb. When it comes to which horse will wear the white carnations, the handicappers see the last leg of the Triple Crown as wide open. Exaggerator and the up and coming Stradivari are the two most popular selections.  Some ThoroFan Handicappers added their individual thoughts about the Belmont Stakes below the chart.  Good Luck to everyone!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Paul Mazur	Destin	Suddenbreakingnews	Exaggerator	Forever d’oro
Reinier Macatangay	Stradivari	Exaggerator	Destin	Seeking the Soul
Jeff Cobb	Stradivari	Exaggerator	Destin	Lani
John Caro	Suddenbreakingnews	Destin	Brody’s Cause	Forever d’oro
Laurie Ross	Creator	Exaggerator	Stradivari	Suddenbreakingnews
Dylan Jarmulowicz	Exaggerator	Brody’s Cause	Destin	Cherry Wine
Tony Badabing	Governor Malibu	Destin	Exaggerator	-None-

ThoroFan Handicappers add their individual thoughts:

Lady and the Track’s Reinier Macatangay:

Seeking the Soul's top TimeformUS Speed Figure is on par with Destin (114). He can win, although is more suited to backwheeling underneath in exotics.

S. Florida Chapter Member Jeffrey Cobb:

Large field for this race, so I'll begin by tossing the hopeless ones:

Gettysburg

Seeking the Soul

Forever D'Oro

Trojan Nation.

Next comes the outside contenders, colts with a chance, but I wouldn't bet on them:

Cherry Wine, 4 point new top at Pimlico. Likely to bounce.

Creator: was moving in the right direction up to the Derby which was a severe setback Thorograph figure wise. Would need to regain and improve form to win this one.

Legit Contenders:

Governor Malibu: Has run well at Belmont and has a good forward moving figure pattern. Ran new top last out, but it was not so drastic as to make me think of a bounce here. Rather looks like an improving 3 yr old to me. Another move forward could make the Governor a winner.

Destin: Ran a huge top in Tampa then regressed in the Derby. With the bounce out of the way now this horse has run fast enough to win here.

Suddenbreakingnews: Another who ran a lifetime top two races back and then regressed a little next out. Interesting to note that top came at longest distance ran (9 furlongs). Still I think this one is not quite likely to improve enough.

Stradivari: I like this colt a lot. He was rank in the race at Pimilico and possibly needed the experience of  running before a large, boisterous crowd. Looking for a return to Keeneland form.

Lani: So far has not done much to impress, but he had a bit of a tough trip at Pimilico.  Winner of  a 9.5f 2000k race at Meydan makes this one hard to overlook. However, as far as I know Mikio Matsunaga has never ridden Belmont before, so he will be at a severe experience disadvantage to the other riders.

Exaggerator: I told the bartender at Gulfstream that I was going to bet Exaggerator until he wins. Well I did. He paired his top 2 consecutive times. Normally, I would not stop betting a horse this consistent, but this is not normally, and I wonder if he can duplicate that effort in such a short period for a 3^rd time.

Brody's Cause: Has a figure pattern suggestive of a horse ready to make a move forward. The question is will it be enough?

That's the breakdown, now comes the prediction

Winner: Stradivari

Place: Exaggerator

Show: Destin

Long shot: Lani

S. Florida Chapter Member John Caro:

Suddenbreakingnews - likes to close, will be closer to the pace, rested, training well, has great pedigree for this one, daddy won the Belmont.

Destin - pace presser who can sustain the distance, who doesn't admire Giant's Causeway? Javier is a good match.

And speaking of Giant's Causeway.....

Brody's Cause - I think Dale will have a different running style for this fella. Rested, training well and love the look.

Long Shot

WOW - Dallas shows up with two entries. I'll take Forever d'Oro for two reasons.... His dad was second in the Belmont to the longest shot ever, Sahara, and after that Meg was never worse than second at classic distance.... Oh yeah, the top route rider at this track is aboard. This could be a wise single bet to win and show with an exacta placing him with bunch of others..... don't leave Cherry Wine out of that mix.

Bets -- $0.50 Trifecta - 2,4,11 w 3,5,8,12 w 2,3,4,5,8,11,12   = $30

            #8    $11 place, $19 show

            $1    Exacta. 8 w 2,3,4,5,11,12