A Birdatthewire Could be Flying in the Santa Maria Stakes (G2)
By: Michael Amo
ThoroFan
The newly turned four year old gets the nod from ThoroFan's Chairman.
This mile and a
sixteenth event for fillies and mares that are 4-years-old and older is a
competitive race. Two of the horses are new 4-year-olds. Birdatthewire, one of
the 4-year-olds, gets to be the high weight because of her win at three in the
LaBrea Stakes (GI) in December at nearly 11-1 odds. With Mike Smith in the saddle she ran from
last to first going five wide in the stretch turn.
La Brea Stakes
Top speed figures in
the race are shared by four horses, Big Break, Kyriaki, Yahilwa and Tara’s
Tango. Rush to the first turn will be exciting.
Let’s look at the field.
11.
Star Act (Street Cry--IRE) seems out of form based on last three
turf races. Shortening up in this race and switching to the dirt may help. She
broke her maiden at today’s distance. Art Sherman, California Chrome’s trainer,
has been conditioning her since July showing modest works. PASS.
22.
Gas Total- (BRZ) (Sulamani--IRE) finished poorly, however with a
respectable last 1/8 of a mile time. She is showing no sign of improving based
on lackluster morning works. However, the old gal (7) did run nice in the
Vanity Stakes (G1) in May to place second with a 93 Beyer. Stays with the same
jockey, but up against it again. PASS.
33.
Birdatthewire (Summer Bird) is working very well for conditioner,
Tom Proctor. Her last eight have been graded stakes beating Cavorting in the
LaBrea Stakes (G1). Gets Mike Smith back after that grade one win. She is
improving and will be moving late in the stretch. LIKELY WINNER.
44.
Big Break (Mr. Big) is stepping up in company, but is
quick out of the gate. May force a speed duel which could benefit others.
Workouts say ready and distance is good. May have difficulty in the stretch run.
May stay in exotics.
55. Kyriaki
(Scat Daddy) has won
at this level, but unlike some of the others found graded stakes level out of
her reach. Lacks good morning preps and competitive Beyer figures. Change to
jockey Bejarano is the best that can be said about her. Will push the pace for
others. PASS.
66.
Living The Life (IRE)
(Footstepsinthesand-GB) is
working solidly for her second race in 2016, off a two month layoff. Stretching
out 2 furlongs, but bloodlines suggest that will not be a problem. Transition
from synthetic to dirt has been her challenge. Very quick down the stretch.
With Stevens up she will give all. Could
upset.
77.
Yahilwa (Medaglia d’Oro) is a solid contender with early speed.
Morning works are suspect. Gets another try to hold off a closing
Birdatthewire. Why jockey Mike Smith switched mounts may offer some insight to
which is the better horse. Her strong of grade one tries at the end of 2015 may
have affected her performance in January. Looks like she may need one more
before she is ready to run her best. In
the exotics.
88. Tara’s
Tango (Unbridled’s Song) is
one of those warriors who is always near the front at the wire. Her nose loss
to Stellar Wind in the June race over this surface was impressive. Works
suggest she is ready and will contend. Outside post may cause her the win. In exotics likely.
With three in the morning
line co-favorite category, Birdatthewire (3), Yahilwa (7) and Tara’s Tango (8),
value will be found by eliminating two of them. Birdatthewire had too many
problems last out in the LaCanada (G2) to ignore. The other two go.
LaCanada Stakes
The finish should be:
11. Birdatthewire (3)
22. Tara’s Tango (8)
33. Living the Life (6)
44. Big Break (4)
55. Yahilwa (7)
The Handigamble from
the $100 bankroll:
11. $50 win #3
22. $2 Trifecta Key: 3 /,4,6,7,8/4,6,7,8
----($24)
33. $.50 Superfecta Key: 3 /
4,6,7,8/4,6,7,8/4,6,7,8 ----($12)
44. $2 Exacta Wheel (just in case) ALL / 3
----$14
Good Luck, but keep the
Day Job!
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