El Camino Real Derby Good Betting Prospect
Only two favorites have won in the last six years, most of the winners paid double digits.
By:
Laurie Ross
Since
its inception in 1980, seven colts that hit the board in the El Camino Real
Derby (G-3) continued successfully along the triple crown trail. Three of them Gate Dancer, Cavonnier and Charismatic
wore the roses. Snow Chief and Tanks
Prospect stood in the Preakness winner’s circle, while Tabasco Cat won the
Belmont and Ten Most Wanted placed in the Belmont.
However,
since the change from dirt to Tapeta, none of the starters in the El Camino
Real have hit the board in any of the Triple Crown races. The best placing was by 2009 El Camino Real
victor Chocolate Candy, who placed fifth in that year’s Kentucky Derby. The El Camino Real Derby is the first
Kentucky Derby qualifier contested at 1 1/8 miles.
This
year, a full field of 14 colts and geldings are scheduled to line up in the
starting gate.
The Favorites:
FRANK
CONVERSATION (Quality Road - Rushen Heat , by Unusual Heat) won the California
Derby going away by 2 ½ lengths.
Trainer Doug O’Neil has never taken home the El Camino Real Derby trophy. The
closest he’s come in the last five years was a third place finish with the favorite
Handsome Mike, in 2012. Frank
Conversation should handle the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles. His sire won at the distance multiple times
at the highest level. Frank Conversation’s dam placed second in a turf stakes
at 1/14 miles, and the colt’s damsire is noted for getting long winded
stayers. The last two horses to pull off the California
Derby/El Camino Real were Chocolate Candy in ’09 and Bwana Bull in ’07.
KASSEOPIA (Showcasing (GB) - Dream
Again (GB), by Medicean (GB)) hasn’t raced since finishing second to Riker in
the Gray Stakes at Woodbine last October. The English-bred gelding should
handle the going and the distance, but asking him to do so after a long layoff
is asking a lot. Additionally, the last ten winners of the El Camino Real had
the benefit of a prep race either at Santa Anita or Golden Gate.
MR. COKER (Candy Ride (ARG) - Our
Khrysty, by Newfoundland) enters the El Camino Real with only two starts under
his girth and will be facing winners for the first time. He’ll also be going
two turns for the first time over a new surface. If anyone can get the colt to the winner’s
circle, it’s the king of Northern California, Jerry Hollendorfer. The trainer
has taken home the El Camino Real trophy in four of the last ten editions of
the race. He did so with another son of
Candy Ride in 2009. Mr. Coker’s pedigree
is a little light on distance on his distaff side, yet there’s plenty of class
there. His dam is a multiple stakes
winner and she’s a half sister to three stakes winners, including G1 winner
Bullsbay. Mr. Coker’s first through
fourth dams all own blacktype. The colt
has a tough task ahead of him, but needs to be respected.
Could hit
the board:
MARQULA (Coast Guard - Marquet
Formula, by Marquetry) circled the field in the California Derby and got up for
second. The colt has hit the board in
his last three starts, but always winds up going wide from behind horses. His only victory was a maiden race where he
was up near the lead. Marqula has very little blacktype in his pedigree and
appears borderline for the 1 1/8 distance.
Perhaps his running style will make up for it. Trainer Jeff Bonde won the El Camino Real last
year.
ALGENON (Aragorn (IRE) - Alpine
Yodel, by Swiss Yodeler) dulled in the early stages of the California Derby,
but faded to finish third. The colt has plenty of ability, he’s hit the board
in every start, but his only victories were at Stockton and Pleasanton. Algenon’s dam is a full sister to three blacktype
sprinters. Nice colt, maybe he can stick around for the lower exotics.
TUSK (Tapit - It's Midnight, by Shamardal) is
making his second start off of a layoff.
He closed for third, beaten a length for second, in a one mile optional
claimer on the Santa Anita turf last time out.
Tusk’s female family is filled with European runners. His dam won a minor
stakes in France at a mile and is a half sister to a multiple stakes winner in
France. Tapit’s offspring are winning everything in sight and the pretty gray
gelding could surprise at long odds.
MANA STRIKE (Papa Clem - Kirkela, by
Giant's Causeway) has a good/bad race cycle going on. After winning the one
mile Gold Rush, the gelding finished sixth in the California Derby. There’s some quality on Mana Strike’s female
family. He’s a half to a minor stakes
placed sprinter. Their dam has a 3-1-0-1
record. She’s a half sister to three blacktype earners and there’s some listed
blacktype throughout the family. Mana Strike posted a sharp second to last 4F
breeze in 47 and change. He could be a
good exotic play, especially if he continues his good/bad/good race cycle.
GIOPRESS (Gio Ponti - Empiress, by Empire Maker) by a
Champion Turf router out of a mare by a Belmont Stakes winner, Giopress should
have the stamina to run all day. After a failed attempt on turf in the Eddie
Logan, the late maturing colt gets back to
Tapeta. This is a colt who should improve with maturity
and distance. He has a very classy
pedigree. His dam is a half sister to Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos and three
half sisters bore stakes winners or stakes placed runners. His speed figures
have improved in every outing at Golden Gate and he has enough speed to be
close to the speed. He could be hanging
around at the end while less stoutly bred contenders are backing up.
The rest:
KELLY WITH A
TWIST –
speed on the rail. Since moving to Golden Gate, he’s hit the board in all three
starts, twice in optional claimers and all three times at sprint
distances. Trainer Manuel Calvario is 0-5 with horses stretching
out.
TOUCHED BY
AUTISM –
placed in four maiden races at Golden Gate then he shipped to Santa Anita to
win at a mile against statebred maidens.
His owner Johnny Taboada won this race in 2008 with Autism Awareness who
won the El Camino Real after finally winning his maiden in his 13th
attempt. The horse paid a shocking $126
to win.
OSCAR
DOMINGUEZ
(IRE) – Makes his first start in the US and his first start of the year. Won on
the Poly in Ireland. Has recorded one very
slow 4F work.
GO LONG – won his last start over
the dirt at Santa Anita in a 50K Claiming race. That was his second victory and
the second time he’s hit the board in nine lifetime starts. His overall late
pace speed figures are good, but is the El Camino Real tougher than a claiming
race at Santa Anita? The colt has a very
nice distaff family, his dam is a multiple stakes winner. However, Go Long and
his siblings aren’t living up to their breeding.
SAN DIMAS – Offspring of Hard Spun
need time to develop. He won his maiden at a mile here in his last start. San
Dimas should handle 1 1/8 miles without difficulty. He’s making his third start
off of a layoff, but his speed figures are poor.
DIPLODOCUS – by Sky Mesa out of a Carson City mare, this colt
surprisingly won his maiden on the turf going 1 1/8 miles. That was in his
second to last start and the only time that he has hit the board in four
lifetime starts. Top Golden Gate jock Russel Baze takes the mount, he’s
collected nine El Camino Real trophies.
Trends:
Pace setters and pressers haven’t fared well in the El Camino Real
since the Tapeta was
installed. All seven winners have sat
mid-pack or farther back.
The
last five winners all invaded from Santa Anita and they either won or placed in
their last start, all over the lawn.
In
the last ten years, three California Derby winners and one second place
finisher came back to capture the El Camino Real, but none since 2010.
Two
winners jumped from a maiden race to the El Camino Real winners circle.
Only
two favorites have won in the last six years, most of the winners paid double
digits.
So,
who hit the board in their last race over the lawn at Santa Anita or hit the
board in the California Derby?
#12 FRANK
CONVERSATION - California Derby winner.
#7 MARQULA - second in the California Derby.
#9 ALGENON – fading third in the
California Derby.
#8 TUSK – third on the turf in
optional claimer at SA.
#4 MR. COKER – won his maiden at SA,
but sprinting on the dirt.
#11 GO LONG – won a high level
claiming race at SA, but it was on the dirt.
#3 TOUCHED BY AUTISM – maiden win at SA, but
over the dirt. can lightning hit twice?? If it does, a lot of handicappers are going
to swear off racing, at least for a day or two.
Selections:
#8 TUSK
#12 FRANK CONVERSATION
#7 MARQULA
#13 MANA STRIKE
#9 ALGENON
Handigambling $100 wager:
With so many horses in the race, we could either get fancy or keep it
simple. I like the 8,12, and 7 as my top picks to win/place. A number of others could fill the bottom
spots. This is a good race to key your top three contenders if you want to get
fancy and cover all of the bases.
$0.10 Super
Box ($36): 8,12,7,13,9,14
$4 Exacta
Box ($24) : 8,12,7
$10 Win at 3-1
or higher: #8
$10 Win at 3-1
or higher #12
$10 Win at 3-1 or higher #7
Total bets:
$90, $10 left over for a snack.
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