Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

 No joking around with the Holy Bull Stakes plays

By: John Caro, S. Florida ThoroFan handicapper

 The Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream is one of three Derby Prep races this weekend and will be ideal, with 2025 Kentucky Derby Points on the line. Put on your sunglasses, which we haven't gotten a chance to do in South Florida much lately.

 Saturday's weather should be perfect. The Holy Bull is featured as race 11 of 12 with a 5:13 PM ET post time

 This is a small field with some good characters running. 

1. Kinetic Control – Romans/Alvarado – Won in front running style last out going the distance at Churchill. He's gone this trip three times with a first and second placing. The speed figure given in the program last out is suspect as the early, middle and late pace numbers in September for the same conditions rated better than the last outing, and the time variance was only one second. He fits here and might make another effort on the front with Alvarado up. Romans has been hot as of late. Good odds, but I like others.

2. Ferocious – Delgado/Castellano  - This guy has been talked about since his 2-year-old campaign. He missed by 6.5 lengths in the BC Juvenile and missed by 5.25 lengths in the Breeder's Futurity. I find him a bit quirky in traffic. He's the favorite and class-wise, he is the one, but I'll pass on a win bet at what is likely to be a very short price.

3. Tappan Street – Cox/Saez  - Well done on debut with a tracking run against eleven others going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Saez was up for that ride and stays with him for the stretch-out instead of Guns Loaded. That says a lot to me. He has the breeding to go longer, and I expect he will be ITM or win going two turns.

4. Guns Loaded - D'Angelo/Ortiz, I Jr. - Not the only speed in the race, but he appears to be the speed of the speed, which were his tactics for the last two races. The caution is in the Mucho Macho Man, he's in front by three lengths in the stretch and is nearly caught by the wire, only going a mile. He has the breeding to go all day, but does he have the heart? Will use him on the ticket, but he won't be a price.

5. He's Not Joking – Carroll/Velasquez  - He is the only graded stakes winner of the bunch and gets to carry the high weight for doing well (we should call this the HB 'Handicap' Stakes). He won the Gray Stakes (GIII) at Woodbine against good company by pulling away by four in the stretch in early November. Later in the month, he presented a truly dismal performance at the Kentucky Jockey Club when he was slow out of the gate. I'm going to scratch through that performance for two reasons. I think the break between races was too short, given the distance, and the bullet work in mid-November may be factors in his lack of performance. The surface was not a factor, given his breeding. He's had some rest and some good works going into this race. I expect he'll do better, and with Johnny V. aboard, he will work out a trip. He may be the tastiest longshot in the field.

6. Burning Glory  - Mott/Gaffalione  - Steadily improving colt with excellent breeding. As is often the case, the Hall of Fame trainer moves smoothly with his young trainees, and they often show up well. Distance should not be a factor. Gaffalione up is a plus at Gulfstream, and his steady pace figures match what will be needed to be ITM.

7. Burnham Square  - Wilkes/Zayas – Another one of three that have won at Gulfstream. His last outing was a win by 9 lengths and better than the other two Gulfstream winners. This guy has all the credentials to win this race and is an improving animal who likes Gulfstream. Zayas is a much-underrated jockey when the big guns come to town, but understand, Edgard is a seasoned journeyman, and this is home. I like this gelding, and his odds are right for wagering.

Handigambling

The favorites in this race are not price-worthy for my money. This is a short field, and a smaller wager with long shots is a better option. Under $100 and no Trifecta or Super today.

$2 Exacta – All with 5, 6, 7 $36

$1 Exacta – 5, 6, 7, with All  $18

Total $54

Alternate bet

$2 All with 7  $12

$10 to Win 7  $10   Total $22

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Pegasus World Cup Invitational

Will White Abarrio bounce back in the Pegasus?

By: The Turk 

White Abarrio:  Ryan Thompson photo credit

Hello Friends and welcome to The Turk Blog, where I handicap and develop exacta bets, primarily over grass, but extensively over all surfaces.  

Next year is my 40th year as a handicapper, which is mind boggling to me as I still see myself as that young kid trying to understand how the races worked at Saratoga in the summer of 1986.  

While I'm not an esteemed turf writer, I have been blogging continuously since 2008, so I am beginning my 18th year. 

Timing is everything in life, and when this blog started, Twitter was just a new thing, and long form blogs were very popular.  Within a few years, the best bloggers in this sport mostly stopped writing about individual races because they weren't being read anymore. All anyone wanted was the picks, tweeted out.  I never started this or any of my online endeavors to be the most popular, or the most monetized.  I'm not sure if that makes me noble, and my cause true, or if my ambition was just low.  No matter, I enjoy what I do and I appreciate the good people at The Thorofan, especially Laurie, who allow me the opportunity to submit late and ramble incessantly.  

If timing is everything, post position must not matter?  Oh but it does.  

 

Analyzing post position statistics for 1 1/8-mile dirt races at Gulfstream Park reveals a significant advantage for horses starting from inside posts. According to data from US Racing, in a sample of 34 two-turn dirt routes, 32 winners broke from posts 1 through 7, accounting for approximately 94% of the victories. In contrast, horses starting from posts 8 and beyond secured only 2 wins from 38 starts, representing a win percentage of about 5%.  

 

I looked at a larger sample size as well, 5 years, and the percentages were about the same: 94%-6%.  Part of that is field size, but the key takeaway is  that it's hard to win from the outside as the configuration of the track, with its relatively short run to the first turn, often places outside starters at a disadvantage, as they must expend additional effort to secure favorable positions early in the race.  

 

The one that comes to mind is Forte winning the Florida Derby from Post 11.  Gun Runner in this race won from the 10 spot but the vast majority in this small sample size were from 6 in.  

The Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, inaugurated in 2017, is a premier thoroughbred horse race  at Gulfstream Park. The gaudiness of the prize packages quickly made the Pegasus World Cup a marquee event, attracting top talent to compete for one of the largest purses in the sport, currently $3.0 MM.   With that type of money, drawing elite horses, jockeys, and trainers from around the globe is possible.

The inaugural running saw Arrogate, trained by Bob Baffert, deliver a commanding performance to claim victory. In subsequent years, the race featured iconic horses like Gun Runner, City of Light, and Knicks Go, whose wins showcased their exceptional abilities.  The race’s timing in late January strategically positions it early in the year's racing calendar, offering participants a chance to begin their campaigns on a grand stage in North America where previously Dubai was the best early season option.  

I generally start with current form, which I use video for, but this group comes in off of all sorts of races, with only 13 starts total by this group since 3 November, Breeders' Cup Weekend.  Watch how Gun Runner handled the outside post, note that very short run to the first turn.  

It is cool but the weather should be dry.  I'm handicapping like it will be fast dirt.  You can find scratches and changes here.

The Pegasus World Cup Invitational G1; 1 1/8 Miles on Dirt for 4 YO and Up

What has Locked or any of the horses beyond the 7 post done to make you think they can pull off the win against the statistical odds against that post at this distance?  

Inside of Locked with  early speed(as measured by Timeform US Pace:  Mixto, Saudi Crown, Newgrange, White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking.  That's a lot of horses for the son of Gun Runner to run past quickly and establish a rail position.  This is a six start horse that has never raced at Gulfstream, never raced at the distance, was a Show finish chalk at Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  I started this analysis working backwards, what you are hearing me say is I don't have alot of faith in Locked, and don't see a reason to stretch on an overbet lightly raced, outside post.  We are gamblers, the odds say move away.

So what and where should we look?  I think a better gamble is on White Abarrio running at a track he's won 6 of 8 starts on, bouncing back under Trainer Joseph. Training well, training sharp, the 6 YO is in a great spot to get on the rail and be fresh at the end.  The pick.  

Saudi Crown should be the first turn leader.  one win in three races at this distance, first time GP, 8 of 12 lifetime exacta finishes.  Covering win and Place with him.  

Crupi to me is in right spot and has one of the best stretch kicks. 7/14 Exactas on Fast Dirt, 5 of 11 exactas at the distance., the son of Curlin at 5 YO isn't jaw dropping, but 14 of 19 lieftime in the money and could add real value to the exacta.  

Skippylongstocking is a pretty good exotic candidate if you are going deeper in the bets.  Stronghhold ships in with Trainer D'Amato and the 4 YO is talented and could surprise.  Same with Mixto, Trainer O'Neill with Dettori up, is a talented 5 YO that is winless in 3 tries at the distance, no exactas at the distance, No GP, but capable of big wins like his 22-1 Pacific Classic in August 2024.  

Mystik Dan, 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, seems oddly placed in this race but I understand taking a swing at the prize.  Sprint to Route for McPeek only 14% on 64 tries. Training sharp at GP and hopefully he can build off of this but I'm skeptical.  The filly, Power Squeeze, also feels oddly placed and got a terrible post draw at 12. 

I'm keeping the bet pretty simple:

4-2 OVER 4-2-5-1-6-10, a $2 Bet for $20.  My aggressive bet is 4 OVER 2-5-1-6-10 for $10.

Have fun friends, Turk Out!  

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Pegasus World Cup Turf - Brother, What a Good Race

 Brother, What a Good Race

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

The Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf  Invitational Stakes has a long history and many different names. It was born in 1986 as a handicap race, the Gulfstream Park Breeders Cup Handicap.

Over 30 years later, in 2019, it was branded as part of the Pegasus series of races at Gulfstream. This year, after Siege of Boston and Paros scratched, 12 older horses will vie 1 1/8 miles on the turf course for a share of the $1,000,000 purse.

The weather in South Florida is predicted to be sunny, with temperatures around 69 degrees. The event is carded as race 12 of 13, with a 4:55 PM ET post time.

 Let’s look at the field.

1.Siege of Boston Scratched

2.Formidable Man (City of Light) Working bullets and should be off the pace in mid-pack. May not be fast enough. Pass.

3.Mi Hermano Ramon (Creative Cause) Works are good. Keeps Saez. Has improving figures over the last four races. Should be ready to win. Contender.

4.Win for the Money (Mohaymen) Keeps hot jockey Dylan Davis. Three in the money at Gulfstream. May have control of the race into the stretch with a reasonable closing move. In the money.

5.Integration (Quality Road) One of three starters for McGaughey with a strong closing move. Has had trouble in his last three, not performing up to his ability. Gets star jockey Dettori, who should get the best from him. Maybe in the lower exotics.

6.Major Dude (Bolt d’Oro) Trying Grade 1 company for a second time. The first try was not so good. Keeps Irad Ortiz. Working bullet for Pletcher, who brings two to the gate. Lower Exotics.

7.Nations Pride (Ire) ( Teofilo-Ire) Trainer Appleby brings jockey Buick trying to repeat their Arlington Million success. Should be sitting off the lead, ready to move in the stretch, and he’s making his second start off the layoff, so he may be ready. In the money.

8.Spirit of St. Louis (Medaglia) Another that does his running late. Gets new jockey, Franco. Trying Gulfstream turf for the first time. Working nice. Form shows more improvement. Lower exotics.

9.Balnikhv (Ire) (Adaay-Ire)  Has a great closing move that should help in this field loaded with off-the-pace runners. Layoff may be a problem, although working nicely. Watch the board. Not sure?

10.Battle of Normandy (City of Light) Working nice. Long layoff, although hasn’t caused a problem before. Won his last three on the turf. Form figures improving. May be ready with new jockey, Jose Ortiz up. Maybe in exotics.

11.Grand Sonata (Medaglia d’Oro) Backed up in Breeders’ Cup Turf. Working Bullet. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez replaces Gaffalione, who goes to Brown’s horse. Interesting. Another day.

12.Chasing the Crown (Skipshot) Stepping up in company. Hasn’t won any graded races. New jockey, Zayas. He will be coming at the end, but it may be too much for him to accomplish. Pass.

13.Fort Washington (AE) (War Front) Trying to break into Grade 1 company. His last three have shown promise. McGaughy others look better.

14.Paros (AE) Scratched

Thoughts 

The dangerous one looks like Fort Washington. The pace should be moderate, and as in most turf races, the contenders will be coming at the end.

Davis on Win for the Money could hold on for a piece if I am right on the pace. The two Irish horses have to be respected. Brown and Gaffalione with the New York-bred could surprise. All said, this will be an exciting race with opportunities to light up the board.

Here is how I think they will finish

3. Mi Hermano Ramon (8-1)

4. Win for the Money (12-1)

7. Nations Pride (2-1)

8. Spirit of St. Louis (20-1)

Handigamble

          $20 Win & place-- 3-Mi Hermano Ramon  $40.00

$2 Trifecta Box---3, 4, 7, 8  $48.00     

$2 Exacta Box ---3, 4, 7   $12.00