Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Triple Bend Stakes (G2)

 Short competitive field in Triple Bend

By: Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

Santa Anita’s Grade 2 feature on Saturday may be called the Triple Bend, but don’t be fooled: there’s just one turn in this race, and it’s a fast seven furlongs on the southern California dirt.

Originating in 1952 as the Lakes and Flowers Handicap, the race was renamed in 1979 to honor Triple Bend. He was one of the best sprinters of 1972 when he was four: he won the seven-furlong Los Angeles Handicap at Hollywood Park in a then-world-record 1:19.8 and also won the Vosburgh at Aqueduct. However, the son of Never Bend was no one-trick pony: he also beat Cougar II in the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita Handicap in racehorse time, two minutes flat.

Its best winners in recent history include McKinzie (2020) and City of Light (2018), both of whom were able to win major races going short or long, just like Triple Bend himself. McKinzie shined, going short in the 2018 Malibu (G1) but also won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1), 2018 Pennsylvania Derby (G1), and 2019 Whitney (G1), going long.  City of Light parlayed his Triple Bend win into a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) victory the same year, and also won the Pegasus World Cup (G1) the following year.

The Triple Bend is featured as race 6 of 9 with a 3:30 PT post time. Let’s review the field.

The Triple Bend drew a short field, with just four runners. That’s a bit perplexing, as such a short field usually happens when some divisional leader turns up in a race, but the sprint division has been wide open since the retirement of Elite Power. Even the established West Coast sprint leader, The Chosen Vron, was never turning up in the Triple Bend since he just dispatched a short field of California-breds in the Thor’s Echo on May 25.

Especially in a short field, the first fundamental question is: where’s the speed? In this case, it is Big City Lights who shapes as the speed of the speed, though the lightly raced Dr. Venkman may also be fast enough to be close up. Between the two, Big City Lights is drawn better: he got the clean outside draw in the short field, while Dr. Venkman is mired on the fence. Tahoe Sunrise has more miler speed than one-turn speed, while Happy Jack doesn’t have to sit too far back if his Kona Gold is any indication but does his best work running at a target.

Not only does he have the pace advantage, but Big City Lights comes into the race in sharp form. Granted, he has never shown anything but good form, as he has never been worse than second in nine outings. But those last two starts have come against open company and have been wins – an excellent step forward from a string of seconds against California-breds in 2022 and 2023. He is four-for-five at Santa Anita. And even though he is only one-for-three at seven furlongs, all of his starts at the distance have been competitive and he has yet to try this distance at his favorite track. Big City Lights is a strong single in this race.

Finish out exactas with Dr. Venkman. There’s a bit of a worry about him being a lightly raced horse breaking from the fence. But he has run well in all three of his starts to date, he is fast enough to be competitive, and trainer Mark Glatt is good at having horses ready off the bench. Though Big City Lights has a strong chance of outsprinting him to the lead, Dr. Venkman has run well from just off the pace as well and he has shown he can stay seven furlongs.

 

Selections

#4 Big City Lights (8-5)

#1 Dr. Venkman (9-5)

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Gamely Stakes (G1)

 International crowd could surprise in the Gamely Stakes

By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Contested at 1 1/8 miles over Santa Anita's turf course, the $300,000 Grade 1 Gamely Stakes, open to three-year-old fillies and older, attracted nine entrants.

Only two Gamely winners contested the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf since 2017, but both finished second, and one, Lady Eli (2017), won that year's Eclipse Award as Champion Turf Mare.

 

Held on Memorial Day, the Gamely is featured as race 9 of 11 with a 5:00 P.T. post time.

Let's dive into the thrilling details of the 2024 Gamely Stakes.

Contenders

6. Anisette (G.B.) returns after a five-month layoff. A dual Grade 1 winner, she was last seen winning the American Oaks (G1) by 1 ¾ lengths. Off the board only once in 9 career starts, the Leonard Powell trainee has won after extended layoffs in the past. However, she's not a total lock, as Ruby Nell bested her by 3 ¼ lengths in the one-mile Autumn Miss (G3) last November.   Contender.

4. Nadette (F.R.) won her first U.S. victory in the Wilshire Stakes (G3) in her last start. Her last win was in a French stakes in 2022. However, the Neil Drysdale trainee has shored up the superfecta exotics in 7 of 10 starts here, all in stakes. A confirmed closer, Nadette is making her first start beyond 1 1/16 miles. Contender.

7. Linda's Gift brings a 3-race win streak to the Gamely. The confirmed pacesetter/presser can carry her speed, and her last three races were between 1 ¼ to 1 ½ miles. Her only competition for the lead is stablemate Ruby Nell, so Tiago Pereira could slow the pace and steal the race. Contender.

2. Ruby Nell gets another shot as a turf router. She flattened out to fourth in last year's Del Mar Oaks, but she's bigger and, hopefully, better now. The Richard Mandella trainee captured the Buena Vista (G2) in her first start of the season, earning a 93 Brisnet figure. It should set her up for another good effort. Ruby Nell may vie with stablemate Linda's Gift for the lead. Exotics.

3. Uncorked (AUS) makes her second California start for Phil D'Amato. She showed her fondness for the Santa Anita turf with a 2-length win over Justique in the 1-mile Royal Heroine (G3). Previously, she was in the money in six of seven starts on the East Coast from a mile to 1 1/16 miles but finished an uncharacteristic sixth at 1 1/8 miles. D'Amato's turf charges win at 19% and are in the money 50% in their second start off the layoff. Exotics.

5. Justique adds distance after a frustrating series of one-mile races where she's run out of real estate. Justify’s daughter has seen Ruby Nell's tail end four times and has been beaten by Nadette, Anisette, and Uncorked. John Shirreffs shakes things up with a jock switch from Mike Smith to Antonio Fresu. Exotics.

Not Today

1. Olivia Maralda (IRE) had a spotty record sprinting in Great Britain and Ireland over good and soft tracks. She closed strongly to grab second place, beaten ¾ length in her U.S. debut over a good Keeneland course, and earned a 90 Brisnet speed figure. So, will she regress with the dreaded "Euro bounce" or improve off the effort? The 4-year-old filly is taking a class jump, adding a furlong, and shipping. Young Will Walden, son of trainer and WinStar Farm President/CEO and Racing Manager Elliott Walden, is 0 for 4 with turf horses making their second start off the layoff. Pass.

8. Yerwanthere (IRE) has been off the board in all graded stakes and was bested a half-length by optional claimers in her last start. Pass.

9. Forever After All ships west, hoping to find a softer group. In her last start, she finished a troubled sixth in the Modesty (G3) at Churchill but is otherwise hit-or-miss. Although her speed figures are on the upswing and, J J Hernandez is in the irons, and Brendan Walsh won the 2022 Gamely, Forever After All needs to improve quite a bit to be competitive here. Pass.

Analysis

In the last 12 years, only two Gamely heroines finished out of the money in their previous race. No pacesetter has won, but pressers and closers are most successful. Surprisingly, only three favorites have won in a dozen years, and four have shored up the exotics.

6. Anisette is the class of the race and may be the favorite. 

I'm looking hard at 4. Nadette (F.R.). Neil Drysdale may not get the spotlight like he did in his heyday with A.P. Indy and Fusaichi Pegasus, but he can still surprise. Nadette has gained ground in the stretch of her last five starts and should enjoy the extra distance.

Selections

4. Nadette (FR)

6. Anisette

7. Linda’s Gift

5. Justique

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Preakness Stakes (G1)

 ThoroFan's 2024 Preakness Picks

The collective minds of the ThoroFan Handicappers take their best shot at the 2024 Preakness. Picks are for first through third place and their best longshot bomb.

Good Luck to everyone and Get Your Preak On!

HANDICAPPER	FIRST	SECOND	THIRD	LONGSHOT
Michael Amo	Catching Freedom	Mystik Dan	Seize the Grey	Just Steel
John Caro	Mystik Dan	Catching Freedom	Tuscan Gold	Uncle Heavy
Nick Costa	Imagination	Tuscan Gold	Catching Freedom	Just Steel
Robert Marks	Imagination	Tuscan Gold	Mystik Dan	Uncle Heavy
Laurie Ross	Tuscan Gold	Imagination	Mystik Dan	Just Steel
Rowan Ward	Tuscan Gold	Mystik Dan	Catching Freedom	Uncle Heavy