The Santa Monica – Grade 2 7
Furlongs
By
Trackfacts
Tom Amello betting against the favorite in a contentious Santa Monica.
Pace
Analysis
Projected
Running Positions:
E = Early speed/ need the lead
EP =
Early Presser/Front-Half Stalker
P =
Front –Half Stalker
S =
Rear-Half runner/ Closer
S
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P
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EP
|
E
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7
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8
|
9
|
|
|
1
|
4
|
|
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3
|
2
|
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
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6
|
|
Several in here want
position among the front pack and are proven early pressers. #2 Ben’s Duchess ,
#5 Tara’s Tango, #6 Room for Me, and #9 Finest City each have shown enough
early speed to gain position pressing or stalking the lead in and among the
first flight, with #9 most likely to set the pace depending how jockey Cory Nakatani reads the break. #2 Ben’s Duchess is not a sharp breaker (note
5/5, 7/8, 8/14, 8/9, 5/6 in pps) but will secure mid-pack stalking position. #1
Prize Exhibit and #7 Living The Life will race near the rear.
The
Field in Post Position Order:
#1
Prize Exhibit 4-1 (Sustained Presser over Turf)
Solid and speedy Graded
Stakes turf and synthetic track performer makes dirt/sprint debut for trainer
Cassidy, who wins 13% with this surface move (8-1-1-1). Both the sire and dam were “turf only”
competitors and there are no dirt siblings. This runner’s best efforts over
turf have come when running from mid-pack or further back off the pace. Not
much to be learned about potential dirt efforts from recent slow works over
this surface. Meet’s leading rider back
in the irons. Might win if handles the switch to dirt and/or the race
collapses; more likely limited to exotics. (5-1)
#2
Ben’s Duchess 5-2 (Front-Half Stalker/Presser)
Ben’s Duchess drops in class
from the G1 La Brea run at today’s distance, while making her second start
following a layoff. She scored an upset win at 8-1 October 4 in the 5-horse G3
LA Woman going shorter. That win was somewhat bias-aided by race dynamics when
racing as the lone closer behind a strong 4-horse contested pace that went
43.45 over a track that also played kindly to off-the-pace runners. Favored
Taris battled widest throughout before weakening to 3rd but returned to win the
G2 La Canada over La Brea winner Birdatthewire. Ben’s Duchess faced quality
filly sprinters last out in Birdatthewire (2-2 at 7f), the speedy Hot City Girl,
and G1 Test Stakes winner Cavorting. While today’s field is softer, Ben’s Duchess
is yet to win beyond 6 ½ furlongs and today’s 7 furlongs remains a question.
Trainer John Sadler won this
race back-to-back in 2011 & 2012 and is 4-2-1-0 with all Santa Monica
starters. Home Sweet Aspen won this race
in 2012 following a 4th place finish in the La Brea racing 3rd
after a layoff. Switch followed a win in the La Brea with a win in 2011. Besides
the distance question, Ben’s Duchess has tactical speed but is not a sharp gate
breaker. A slow break will compromise her chances. This filly might win, is vulnerable
at short odds but a “must use” in exotics. (7-2)
#3
Kiss At Midnight 12-1 (Rear-Half Sustained Closer)
Kiss At Midnight won
on-debut at 6 furlongs over state bred $50k maiden claimers. It took five
starts and $40k Starter Allowance for her to earn a 2nd win, that at
today’s distance. She has been competitive in Cal-bred restricted stakes company
through late 2015 (3-0-3-0), finishing ahead of today’s rivals Lost Bus and
Tara’s Tango. Gets a “power jock switch” to Gary Stevens, who is 8-2-1-3 riding
sprints for trainer Richard Baltas. Baltas is 12-2-1-1 in Graded Stakes sprints
and 3-0-1-1 running at today’s distance. This is a solid field of proven open
company and stakes-competitive sprinters. She races from off-the-pace, looks
slow on speed figures and short on class. Unlikely win contender. Limit to deep
exotics.
#4
Lost Bus 20-1 (Front-Half Presser/Stalker)
Lost Bus is 4-2-1-1 over
dirt thus far in her 10-race career. She sprinted away from rivals when heavily
favored on debut in a 4 ½ furlong dash in May. She was dead game in narrow
losses over synthetic at Del Mar before heading to the shelf in March of 2015.
Her last four efforts came over turf while in the charge of low percentage
trainer Blake Heap (8%). Trainer Gary Sherlock (8%) took her for $32K and
immediately switched back to dirt, where she chased the pace, led but had no
resistance for the winner at 16-1 Dec 13 at Los Alamitos. He then added
blinkers last out where she raced evenly throughout at 39-1 to finish 3rd
behind today’s rival Lost Bus. Raced for a $32k tag 3-back; steps way up in
class today. Non-contender.
#5
Tara’s Tango 6-1 (Front-Half Presser)
Tactical speed and class are
the traits this filly brings to this contest. She won on debut under jockey
Mike Smith over synthetic when bet to do so, then raced competitively in two
overnight stakes before suffering a narrow photo loss to the 2015 Eclipse Award
winner Stellar Wind. Two back in September Tara’s Tango proved a non-factor at
2-turns in the G1 Cotillion at Parx. Freshened off that dismal effort, she
returned Dec. 30 to finish a non-threatening 4th behind rivals Kiss
At Midnight and Lost Bus.
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer
wins 34% with sprinters in Grades Stakes company and is 21-8-2-3 when sending
sprinters 7 furlongs at Santa Anita. He won this race with a sharp horse in
Scherzinger under Mike Smith in 2014 and with a sharp horse in Sam’s Sister in
2015. Mike Smith is 6-5-0-1 riding Graded Stakes sprinters for Hollendorfer and
is back in the saddle today. Needs a top effort and fair odds (5-1) to contend
for the win; a must use in exotics.
#6
Room for Me 3-1 (Presser)
Room for Me is a solid and
consistent sprinter who showed marked improvement after being claimed for
$12,500 by trainer David Jacobson last February; she is 11-5-1-2 since
switching to the barn and shipping east. Three of those efforts have been at
today’s 7 furlong distance: Room for Me was off poorly from post 1 and a
non-threatening 4th in the G3 Bed of Roses, overmatched but held
well for 3rd in the G1 Ballerina, and hopelessly overmatched in the
Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. Last out she was no match for Eclipse
winner La Verdad in the $100k Interborough at Aqueduct.
Trainer David Jacobson is a
high percentage trainer on the NYRA circuit where he has won 24% with dirt
sprinters over the last five years. Over that same period, he won 18% in Graded
Stakes sprints. He is, however, only 24-1-5-5 with domestic shippers in Graded
Stakes, including sending his top sprinter Salutos Amigos to a 7th
place finish in the Breeders Cup Sprint and, m ore recently, a 2nd in the G3 Midnight Lute
under Martin Garcia, named today on Room for Me. Jacobson shipped a string to
Santa Anita this year and stands 8-0-1-1 thus far.
Ironically, Room for Me began her career in
California at Golden Gate. She owns two wins at 7 and 8 furlongs over the Santa
Anita oval. Those efforts occurred in 2014 against lesser. She is a much better
horse today. The fact Jacobson is yet to win at Santa Anita is a concern, as is
the ship west. Room for Me is a win
contender with questions; a “must use” in exotics. (7-2)
#7
Living The Life 6-1 (Rear-Half Sustained Closer)
Living The Life is a
synthetic specialist with a solid record at today’s distance (8-3-1-1). Her
three races over dirt include a last place finish in the Breeders Cup Filly and
Mare Sprint where she was 16-1 to rival Room for Me’s 78-1, an off-the-board
finish against a speed favoring surface at 6 furlongs in an overnight stake,
and a decent 2nd in the G2 Great Lady M at Los Alamitos behind a
good winner in Fantastic Style and ahead of a tough runner in Sunday Rules.
Trainer Gary Mandella gave
her rest, and then made a smart ship to run over the synthetic Tapeta surface
at Presque Isle Downs to get a repeat win in the G2 Masters. That win makes her
co-high weight with #1 Prize Exhibit, conceding weight to rivals. When last
seen in November, Living The Life raced close-up to a modest pace while
uncomfortable in the vice between rivals early, took back, then was both boxed
in and out brushed to a lane by a rallying rival when attempting to angle out
for running room leaving the turn. From there she lost momentum when squeezed
back a bit, never getting a fair chance to run under jockey Joe Bravo. From there
she finished with interest and galloped out well. That was a two-turn route,
not this filly’s best distance. Today,
Living The Life returns fresh from an 83-day layoff to race at a better
distance and reunites with winning jockey Flavien Prat. She is proven capable
of racing well off works having won off an April-August layoff when first
switched into Mandella’s barn, as well as one from a November-March vacation.
She has the class and solid efforts over dirt to argue the outcome if her
off-the-pace running style is not compromised by what projects to be a moderate
but crowded early pace. She will be the one to deny in the race to the wire.
Win contender and “must use” in exotics. (4-1)
#8
Kyriaki 12-1 (Mid-Pack Stalker)
Kyriaki broke her maiden 2nd-out
at a turf route after a decent debut effort in a 6 ½ furlong sprint rained off-the-turf,
then kept turf stakes company throughout her 3-year old season. Trainer Eureton
kept her on turf until April of 2014, where she showed tactical speed trailing
at the back of the pace pack from where she made a mild bid when angled widest
into the lane in a decent field of dirt routers. Freshened after a dull turf
effort and switching to jockey Mario Gutierrez, Kyriaki showed good tactical
speed to score twice at the OC$40k/N1X & N$Y conditions going one-mile.
Eureton next opted for the G1 Zenyatta where Kyriaki was hopelessly overmatched
and outrun behind Eclipse winner Beholder and a few proven Graded Stakes
routers. Last out at Delta Downs in the Treasure Chest, Kyriaki’s lone wet
track race boded well for success over a muddy surface. This will be the
strongest field of filly & mare sprinters Kayriaki has faced. She is an
unlikely win contender but can be used on deep exotics.
#9
Finest City 10-1 (Front-Half Presser/ Stalker)
Finest City has but six
career starts and brings a 6-2-2-0 record to this event. On debut, after
breaking from post 12 to set the pace at 33-1, Finest City was caught late by
Gloryzappper in a “key” race that produced five next-out winners and three
place runners. Connections knew what they had, kept it quiet and almost got the
goods. Next out, she crushed nine special weight rivals at Del Mar at 3-5. It
was no surprise when trainer Ian Kruljak tried this daughter of the speedy City
Zip, out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare, down the hill in a turf sprint stake. Dam Be
Envied raced primarily at turf routes, and sire City Zip carried his speed up
to a mile. But Finest City could do no better that day than fourth. After a
5-week rest it was back to Del Mar’s dirt and another solid short odds win over
a prolific sprint winner in Stealth Drone. Holding form, she managed another
placing as the heavy favorite versus Optional Claiming/N$Y company. Last out,
Kruljak sent her into G1 company in the La Brea at today’s 7 furlong distance where,
breaking from post 9, she was outgunned for the lead and forced to chase proven
stakes sprinters while widest, succumbing to their class, the effort, and the
extra panel to finish an indistinct ninth.
Speed is always dangerous, and Finest City
might be the speed of speeds. Given the circumstances, the fade in the G1 La
Brea is understandable. She drops into a softer but strong competitive field today
while reuniting with winning jockey Cory Nakatani (Stevens moves to #3). Finest
City is most likely to benefit from scratches of other front-running rivals,
has a modest chance to win if able to control the pace but would require odds
in excess of 8-1. She, too, can be used in exotics.
Selections:
#7 Living The Life (“Key” horse)
#6 Room for Me
#2 Ben’s Duchess
#9 Finest City
#1 Prize Exhibit
$100
Bankroll:
$25 Win 7
$12 Exacta 7/2,6
$ 8 Exacta 7/1,9
$ 5 Exacta 1,2,6,9/7
$ 1 Trifecta 1,2,6,9 / 1,2,6,9 / 7
$97 total wagers
On Saturday, January 30, 2016 the 136th running of the Withers Stakes will be held at the Aqueduct Racetrack in New York. Post Time is 1:50 (Eastern Time). Last weeks Blizzard led to several cancelled
cards but the forecast looks ok for Saturday with temperatures in the upper
30's with partly cloudy skies. 
Flexibility -The 7-5 favorite is coming off a 4.5 length
victory in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct back on 01/02/16. His sire Bluegrass
Cat was second in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes.
He is 2-2-0 out of his 4 starts. There is no value in picking him but this New York bred looks like
the clear winner.
