Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

 Wading Through the Blue Grass Stakes Field

By Nick Costa, Trackside with Trakman

This weekend, ThoroFan heads to the Bluegrass state where some Kentucky Derby prospects will see their stock rise, while others will see the Derby dreams of their connections turn into smoke in the 99th running of the Grade 1, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes going 1 1/8 miles on the main track at Keeneland on Saturday, April 8.

 

 

A major steppingstone for the $3 million G1 Kentucky Derby, to be run May 6 at Churchill Downs, the Blue Grass Stakes offers 200 points toward qualification to this year's Derby on a 100-40-30-20-10 scale to the first-through fifth-place finishers.

It would take only a win or a second-place finish to secure a spot in the Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Also, finishing third, fourth or fifth here could also propel a horse into the Derby depending on how many previous points a horse accumulated in prior preps.

Tampa Bay Derby winner, Tapit Trice, trained by Todd Pletcher has been installed as the 5-2 morning-line choice in a field of eleven 3-year-olds.

As for Tapit Trice and Gotham Stakes winner, Raise Cain, who is also in the Blue Grass field, both accumulated 50 points for their respective prep victories and have virtually locked up a spot in Louisville.

The Blue Grass will go as the ninth race on Saturday's 11-race program with a 5:15 p.m. ET post time.

 ANALYSIS

 With this event being held on just the second day of the spring Keeneland meet, we do not know how the track is playing in relation to running styles, so, I handicapped on the assumption of a neutral track.

On paper, this Grade 1 event doesn’t appear very strong, Tapit Trice and Blazing Sevens seem to be the most talented and I expect one of the two to win this race.

I’ve always held firm in my belief that G1 races are won by Grade 1 horses, and Blazing Sevens is such a horse, having taken the Champagne Stakes last fall. He was fourth behind Forte in the G1 B.C. Juvenile, beating more than half the field, after being hampered at the start, and was G1 stakes placed in the Hopeful at Saratoga last summer. In his only start this year, he got bumped around pretty good heading into the first turn in the G2 Fountain of Youth and never got untracked, languishing near the back of the pack for the entire race.

I’m willing to give him a mulligan for that no-show effort. This appears to be a better spot, and trainer Chad Brown does well with horses second off the layoff. In addition, Blazing Sevens gets first time blinkers (another category Brown has had great success with) and the riding services of Irad Ortiz. For me, it’s all systems go.

Tapit Trice  had no early interest in the Tampa Bay Derby, but certainly was interested late. He only ran hard the last quarter-mile, but what a run it was, turning on the after burners to motor to a two-length win. He’s been green early in a couple of his races, so he’ll need an alert beginning breaking from the rail to stay intact with the field. He’s gunning for four wins in a row, but in order to get it done, he must improve and show more professionalism too. If he does, look for him in the winner’s circle.

Verifying  who was expected to be the pacesetter in the Rebel, was outrun for the lead and tracked along the inside rail into the far turn, where he was then surrounded by rivals and had no place to really run until he finally found clearance late.

There is other speed to his outside in Major Blue, so it’s imperative this Brad Cox horse break cleanly from post three. If he can secure the lead, he could take this group a long way, especially if the track is kind to front runners,

Sun Thunder was hindered by the slow-paced Louisiana Derby where he had only two horses beaten at the three-quarter mark but was able to improve his position from far back in the field to finish fifth. The pace here should hopefully be more beneficial to his closing style. He has been very competitive in his outings this year and deserves some consideration to be on the board.

WAGER

$100 Mythical Dollars

$10 Win – Blazing Sevens

$10 Exacta Box – Blazing Sevens and Tapit Trice (Cost $20)

$10 Exactas – Blazing Sevens and Tapit Trice over Verifying (Cost $20)

$5 Trifecta Box – Blazing Sevens-Tapit Trice- Verifying (Cost $30)

$5 Trifecta Wheel – Blazing Sevens and Tapit Trice in the first two positions adding Verifying and Sun Thunder to the third slot (Cost $20)

Good luck, and as always, enjoy the race.

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Florida Derby (G1)

Looking for value in Florida Derby

 By: John Caro, S. FL. ThoroFan 

This is the highlight of the Gulfstream winter meeting. The weather will be spectacular. 

We have twelve runners going one and an eight for the money and 200 points are up for grabs for the Kentucky Derby five weeks from now.

Forte, Forte, Forte. Did I mention #11 Forte? Deserved Florida Derby favorite and the betting favorite to win the Kentucky Derby at this juncture. The Florida Derby has produced so many Kentucky Derby winners it hard to count. Hard to doubt that Forte will not win here as he did in the Fountain of Youth Stake a month ago.

One of his prime challengers, Rocket Can, is out of town for the run in Arkansas.

From a strictly handicapping standpoint there is only one winner, Forte, unless something silly happens. He is drawn to the outside which is not ideal but has a jockey that is keenly aware of all that goes on in these situations. And there is no value from a betting standpoint for a win bet.

Personally, I don't bet a favorite unless there is great value underneath with value odds to go with such a short priced favorite. So I'm looking for contenders who are proven at a distance, have the breeding to go and stay, close well against a fairly fast pace and have odds that justify the wager. Let's look at a few….

#9 Cyclone Mischief is ranked third on the power scale for this race but weakened in the stretch going shorter in the FOY.

There are two Good Magic colts in the race and Good Magic has had great success this season.

 #4 Mage was all the rage after a lightning quick win first time out and finished a good fourth against Forte in the FOY. He gets Luis Saez who could be very strong on the front as seen with Maximum Security.

#12 Dubyuhnell has gone the distance in the slop and won the Remsen last December. His return was not so good but, is consistent with what happens with most young horses after a big win into a layoff. I expect a move forward given the connections.

#8 Mr. Ripple is another that's been tested going the distance and on this track. Sent to us by Dialed In, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Zayas he has my nod as an ITM player.

#2 West Coast Cowboy showed a lot of guts in the Holy Bull at 58-1 which paid a great price in the exotics. Sony Leon is up and no doubt has shown his ability with a horse that might have the mind to get open and clear some competition.

Two interesting colts from two great dads, Arrogate's #1 Jungfrau has gone this distance twice. Don't this Juddmonte and Bill Mott would be sending him out for practice. And California Chrome’s #5 Mr. Peek. Yeah that's crazy, right. Okay, I like the idea of having a horse in there who is ridden by a guy who wins 36% on routes and is ITM 56% of the time. Picking two who are Maidens. What? Okay done quibbling about my choices.

Handigambling – A friend of mine asked me to make a Superfecta for this one and here it is:

$0.10 Superfecta below = $12 fun bet and you can bet it in multiples. It will pay best if the 2 or 8 come in second.

11 with 2, 4, 8, 12, with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12

Other bet options

$1 Exacta   -  2, 4, 8, 11, 12 w 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12  =  $35 sensible bet if you believe in silly things happen to nice horses.

$10 Exacta  -  11 with 4, 9, 12  =  $30 logical given the odds

$5 Exacta  -  11 with 1, 2, 5, 8  =  $20 hoping for longshot heaven

$1 Trifecta  -  11 w 2, 4, 8, 12 w 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 9, 12  =  $24 solid bet with a good payout of longshots come 2^nd

*****************************************

Bonus Round - Arkansas Derby – Win Contenders are 6 and 7….bet as you wallet will allow

$1 Trifecta  -  6, 7, with 4, 5, 6, 7, with 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11  = $30

$2 Exacta  -  4, 5, 6, 7, with 4, 5, 6, 7, 11  =  $32

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2023 Louisiana Derby (G2)

Fair Grounds Stakes Winners Clash in Louisiana Derby 

By Rowan Ward, Blinkers-off 

The Fair Grounds spur of the Kentucky Derby trail draws to a close with the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 25.

The race covers 1 3/16 miles, the longest of any Kentucky Derby points race in the United States, and the rewards are big: a $1 million purse, and 100-40-30-20-10 Road to the Kentucky Derby points for the top five finishers. This means a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby for the winner, a likely slot for the second-place finisher, and a nice push up the Kentucky Derby standings even for the next few across the wire.

The Louisiana Derby is the last of four points races during the Fair Grounds meet. The Gun Runner, the newest race in the series, began it in December. It was followed by the two traditional local lead-ins for the race, the Lecomte (G3) in January and the Risen Star (G2) in February.

Though Risen Star winner Angel of Empire does not return for the Louisiana Derby, this race features a clash between Gun Runner winner Jace’s Road and Lecomte winner Instant Coffee, both of whom go out for the barn of Brad Cox.

Only two Louisiana Derby winners have won the Kentucky Derby: Louisiana legend Black Gold in 1924, and Lil E. Tee in 1992. However, more recently, Louisiana Derby fourth-place finisher Country House (2019) took the roses with him, and Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (2022) ran second in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness as the favorite, and went on to win the Travers (G1) and champion 3-year-old honors.

Brad Cox holds a lot of the cards in this year’s edition of the Louisiana Derby. He trains the favorite Instant Coffee, who would not be a surprise.  He has won three of his four starts to date, including the Lecomte over the Fair Grounds track. Though the jury is still out on how long the Bolt d’Oro progeny want to go, he is out of an Uncle Mo mare, which is a positive stamina influence. He has been able to close well and win even if the pace was not terribly fast in front of him, and Luis Saez returns to the irons for the fourth race in a row.e

However, Instant Coffee has a tough near-inside post position in a large field, meaning he could run into some trip trouble. However, the pace does not look like it is going to unfold to be particularly fast, meaning he is going to have to be at the top of his game in addition to getting a clean trip. And, the most likely candidate to take the lead is a good foe: his stablemate Jace’s Road.

Though Jace’s Road disappointed last out in the Southwest, that was over a sloppy track. Both of his off-track races have been flat, but his three starts over fast footing have been strong. That includes a win over the local course: he won the Gun Runner two starts back, setting a pressured pace and drawing off. The outside post, in most cases, can be a little tricky, but with no one else in the field dedicated to the lead, Florent Geroux should be able to get him to the front and work a trip.  And, if someone else decides to step on the gas?  He won his debut and finished third in the Iroquois from near but not right on the pace, meaning he has that tactical ability in his pocket.

Kingsbarns cedes experience to his foes but has shown strong talent in his two starts to date.  He sat close to the pace and took over in his one-mile debut at Gulfstream, then romped from a tracking spot in an allowance at Tampa Bay Downs. The Tampa allowance proved that he looked as good going two turns as he looked going one, and also that he could take good form out of Gulfstream Park to another track. Todd Pletcher has a good history of taking talented but lightly-raced horses into final Derby preps and putting them in the Run for the Roses, and Kingsbarns could be another one of those types.

The one who is relatively short on the morning line and worth standing against is Sun Thunder. He will not get the torrid pace that he closed into for the Risen Star. Furthermore, the fact that he was outfinished in the Risen Star combined with the fact that he is by Into Mischief from a female family where so much of the class comes at one turn means that he may not want the extra distance of the Louisiana Derby.

Selections:

#11 Jace’s Road (12/1)

#6 Kingsbarns (6/1)

#2 Instant Coffee (2/1)

 

Longshot: #7 Cagliostro (12/1) has woken up as a three-year-old going two turns. The son of Upstart comes into stakes company for the first time, and missed by a neck last out in an allowance over the course. Though he will face Dennington, the horse who beat him, again, there is reason Cagliostro can get the better trip. Not only did Cagliostro draw better, but he also stands to get the jump on that foe this time. In a race without a lot of speed entered, that helps a lot. Add to that the fact that his trainer Cherie DeVaux tends to shine at a price third off the lay, he has the tools to make his stakes debut a very good one.