Handicapper's Corner: 2024 Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

 Holy Bull Stakes Picks N' Plays

By: Robert Marks,(@theyreinthegate)

With February upon us, we are now in full Kentucky Derby Prep season. On Saturday at Gulfstream Park in Sunny Florida, we have the Holy Bull Stakes, a Grade 3 dirt race at 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds. 

To qualify for entry into the Kentucky Derby, you must accumulate points that are earned in Derby Prep races. For this race, points are given to 1st place through 5th place (20,10,6,4,2).

The Holy Bull will go off as Race 12 on 2/3/24 at 5:48 pm Eastern time. Here is a look at the 8-horse field.

 

These races are tough to bet, that being a small field with a clear favorite at short odds. Here is who we will look at:

Fierceness (3-5) for Trainer Todd Pletcher and Owner Mike Repole will go off as the clear favorite. His morning line odds are 3-5 and I would not expect the odds to float much higher than that, maybe 4-5 at best. That is how much of a favorite this horse is. He is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and was the 2-year-old Eclipse Horse of the Year. His speed figure in the Juvenile was a very impressive 110. seems to tower over this field class and speed-wise. Also looks to be in form and workouts have been sharp.  Veteran rider Johnny Velazquez is the Jockey.

Domestic Product (8-1) will be piloted by Tyler Gafflione. Trained by Chad Brown, this colt has one win out of 3 starts, winning 2nd time out at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct. Seems like a pass at first glance, but there are two changes that we think could get him in the money. One is having Tyler aboard for the 1st time over former Jock Manny Franco. Tyler rides well at Gulfstream. Then there is the equipment change as the Blinkers will come off this horse for the 1st time. Chad Brown has been very successful with this tactic, with a 67% in the money result when he does this. Seems like a good ingredient for a placing and an overlay if his odds stay at 8-1.

Otello (9-2) is 2-2 for trainer Christophe Clemente. His last race was at Gulfstream Park at the one-mile distance. Clemente horses are always well-trained to get the distance, and I think this colt, sired by Curlin, will love the extra distance on Saturday. His speed figures are only so-so, but we expect a nice late pace run from him. Luiz Saez will be aboard.

Looking at longshots, you might want to consider Sea Streak at 20-1, trained by Eddie Owens Jr. He will be an early pace leader in our opinion. He has placed in all four starts and has two races over the Gulfstream surface. Seems like one of those horses who doesn’t win much but hangs around to get into the exotics. Worth putting into your Trifecta and Superfecta box selections.

The Play

With a short field and one big favorite in Fierceness, it’s tough to win unless you toss him and hope to get lucky.

For us, we will go conservative with a straight win bet and hope we hit the Tri with Sea Streak getting a piece.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$50-win Fierceness

$2 Trifecta Box: Fierceness, Domestic Product, Otello, Sea Streak (total bet $48)

$2 place: Sea Streak