Pacific Classic: Can Flightline go the Distance?
By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper
#5 Flightline (1-5) – Sadler/Prat – No question this four year old has been a wonder. He is four for four going a mile or less, winning by a combined 42 lengths including two Grade I races. He loves to run on the front and leave the others behind.
In the Met Mile on his last outing Flightline got off a step slow and was able to track the leader, pass at the top of the stretch and win by six. There is no doubt that he is fast, given the fractions of his prior races and his ability to maneuver, and looks good on the videos with a very smooth stride.
Flightline’s training regimen has been a combination of bullet speed works mixed with some longer 6 and 7 furlong works. The only drawback is he is not proven at the distance. However, both his sire and dam have gone the distance and placed in the money. I expect he is ready to make a strong effort here. The favorite by everyone’s estimations.
#2 Country Grammer (4-1) – Baffert/Velazquez – He is two for three at the distance and undefeated with Baffert. In his first start off of the layoff, the Dubai World Cup hero finished second in the San Diego Handicap (G2) to Royal Ship. Country Grammar shortened up and carried five more pounds than the winner.
Country Grammer is the biggest money earner on this stage. His training has been the patented Baffert 6 furlong works with a speedy 5 in preparation for the longer race. I expect he will track the pace and look for a break in Flightline’s armory of speed. Johnny V has been on a roll (broke 1000 wins at Saratoga) and is quite crafty. I’d say he’s the number 1 contender to Flightline.
#4 Express Train (12-1) – Shirreffs/Espinoza – This guy intrigues me. Second biggest money earner here today. Since Espinoza got on him he has won three of four. However, Express Train lost to Stilletto Boy in his last start in the Californian (G2) carrying 4 more pounds than the winner, and was returning from a 45+ day break after winning the Santa Anita Handicap where he beat Stilleto Boy going a mile and a quarter.
Express Train’s speed rating of 105 is the best of the field at today’s distance. His routing and closing speeds are solid. His work tab during his 126 day layoff has been ‘old school ‘, steady and building. If he shows his best speed and tactics he is a good Longshot at 12-1.
#3 Royal Ship (8-1) – Mandella/Smith – For me he is a little less than the two above as a long distance horse. He’s been one and a quarter miles three times and never won. However, he’s finished in the money twice, losing by 4+ lengths last time and 11 lengths back in last year’s Pacific Classic. I think he has lost a step as a 6-year-old. There is no question that Mike Smith can get the job done if things go his way but, I just don’t have confidence in in this gelding for this spot.
#1 Extra Hope (30-1) – Mandella/Baze – I see this one as a toss for the race, although he may have an impact on the early pace. His early digits and his post position say Mandella is going to send him. Tyler likes speed, so unless there is some reason not to use it, he will. Maybe to control the pace? Not one of my contenders but, I’ll stick him underneath in the trifecta.
#6 Stilleto Boy (20-1) – Moger/Hernandez – His last win, and the only one since July of 2021, was against Express Train, three back. Since that blinding speedball effort he has done little to improve. His most recent race he lost to Royal Ship and Country Grammer by 6+ in the San Diego. He has had a third place effort at 9 lengths back going this distance against Express Train. His recent effort indicate a downward trend in form. On the bottom.
Analysis
It appears we are going to see a very fast pace in this one, probably by Flightline who will play “Catch Me if you Can”. The question is can he do the 44+ then sub 109 and go the distance?
Who will go with him? Stilleto Boy with Hernandez up went nearly that fast in the Californian. The favorite is almost prohibitive for betting other than a Trifecta or Super with some hope of good odds coming in second and third or winning. Good Luck…
Handigambling
$8 Trifecta – 5 with 2, 4, 3 with 2, 4, 3 = $48
$3 Trifecta – 2, 4 with 2, 4, 5, 3 with 2, 4, 5, 3 = $36
My alternate bet - #4 $10 Win, $9 Exacta 2, 3, 5 with 4 = $37
A $1 Superfecta with the Fav on top will cost $24…. 5 with 2, 4 w All w All
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