Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Pennsylvania Derby (G1)

 Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon clash again in Pennsylvania Derby

By Michael Amo, ThoroFan

The Pennsylvania Derby (GI) has positioned itself to be the perfect prep for the Breeders’ Cup. The 42 days between these two days affords plenty of downtime and still the opportunity to “tune up” for the big one.

Only one horse is not pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup races. He is the local horse, I am Redeemed. The other eight are eyeing the Cup. Five of them have faced each other in different grade one races.

This year’s Pennsylvania Derby will be a great race. Weather looks good. Let’s look at the field.

 

1.       Fulsome (Into Mischief) is making his grade one debut after a solid performance in a grade three race over the Parx track. Working nicely for a top-level trainer, Brad Cox, with a seasoned jockey who has ridden him in the last four races. He has a tough assignment.

2.       Keepmeinmind (Laoban) has been a bridesmaid in his seven races this year. He showed his ability against Essential Quality in the Jim Dandy (GII) but didn’t bring the same energy to the Travers Stakes (GI). He will need to be in the hunt with a hot pace up front to win this one. This is especially true now that Medina Spirit has scratched. His Jockey, Joel Rosario, seems to have found another gear in him. Likely in the money.

3.       Speaker’s Corner (Street Sense) is trying graded company for the first time. Yet, he ran a perfect race in a Saratoga Allowance after a 10-month layoff. The 9-furlong distance may be too much, although his pedigree does not agree. Has the right pace style for a longer race. You must respect Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, especially second time off a layoff. Big question mark but could shock.

4.       Weyburn (Pioneerof the Mile) has only seen success in the grade three Gotham Stakes. Working nicely but needs more to be competitive in this race. Should be quick enough out of the gate to contribute to a solid pace. Next race.

5.       I Am Redeemed (Redeemed) will need divine intervention to win this race. His home track advantage and early speed may help him find his way into the lower rung of an exotic. Then maybe not!

6.       Bourbonic (Bernardini) after upsetting the Wood Memorial at odds over 70-1, he showed his true abilities in the Kentucky Derby (GI) and the Belmont Stakes (GI), where he finished over a combined 31 lengths behind the winners of those races. Jockey Carmouche is ridding sky-high after an injury-driven layoff. He was on him when he won the Wood Memorial. Maybe in the lower end of exotics.

7.       Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) comes into this race after losing the Haskell Stakes (GI) by disqualification. Prat won’t make the same mistake. That race was the only time he was out of the money in five starts in 2021. Forgive that sin, and you have a real contender. His Beyer figures support he is on par with the top ones here. Should win if the pace is modest.

8.       Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) was the victim of the transgression by Hot Rod Charlie in the Haskell Stakes (GI). Yet with only a month off, he came back with a new jockey to almost upset Essential Quality in the Travers Stakes (GI). Santana returns to ride here and will assure that the pace is honest. Likely in the exacta.

9.       Medina Spirit (Protonico) Scratched.

10.     Americanrevolution (Constitution) another New York-bred trying to follow in Tiz the Law’s footsteps. After a bad start at 2, he came back at three to win three in a row. This will be his first time in an open stakes race and graded race. It is a lot to ask. Watch for him next time out.

 

Analysis

With Medina Spirit out, the pace will likely be more moderate. However, a couple coming up from the minors will need to be upfront early for any payoff. This may increase the pace.

It looks like Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie may try to make it a two-horse race. Mott’s entry, Speaker’s Corner, may try to mix it up with these two. Keepmeinmind and Bourbonic will be trying in the stretch, with the former having a better chance to succeed.

 

Here is how I think they will finish:

1.      #7 Hot Rod Charlie (5-2)

2.      #2 Keepmeinmind (8-1)

3.      #8 Midnight Bourbon (5-1)

4.      #3 Speaker’s Corner (12-1)

 

Handigamble

$10 Exacta Box #2, #7 & #8 = $60

$1 Trifecta Box #2, #3, #7 & #8 = $24

$2 Exacta  #2/#3, #7, #8 = $ 6

$10 win #2  = $10

 

Good Luck but keep the day job!