Handicapper's Corner: 2021 Triple Bend Stakes (G2)

 A Lofty Task Needed to Win the Triple Bend Stakes

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

Memorial Day weekend sees a few tracks offering strong cards. Santa Anita has three graded stakes races on their card. The grade three Daytona Stakes (GIII) starts it off in the fifth race. The grade two Charles Whittingham follows in the seventh. The triplet ends with the grade two Triple Bend Stakes in the eighth. 

The handicapping problem with these three races is field size. The Triple Bend has only five entrants. The short field offers fewer opportunities for bad trips and increases the chances of a “true-to-form” race. The lyric, “it never rains in southern California” applies to Saturday. Temperature is predicted to be 77 degrees, sunny and 0% chance of rain at post time. 

 Here is the field:

 

    1.       Exaulted (Twirling Candy) has performed well at the grade two level. Distance suits him. His off the pace running style may be compromised by the rail draw. However, the small field will help. The pace should be honest setting up for a late move. Should get there.

    2.       Lambeau (First Samurai) tries graded stakes for the first time. The front runner will try to set the pace, but will need to contend with two other speedsters, Shooters Shoot (#3) and Eight Rings (#5). The distance is shorter than he is used to and should help with stamina. Maybe a very small piece.

    3.       Shooters Shoot (Competitive Edge) tried a grade one race with little to show for it. Should be quick in the stretch. His jockey, Rispoli, should keep him strategically well positioned for his final move. Should get a piece.

    4.       Magic On Tap (Tapit) tried the grade two California Stakes, but tired at the nine-furlong task. Shorter distance should help. One of two Bob Baffert entries that likely depends on the other, Eight Bells, to push the pace so he can close. Working well. New jockey may not help.

    5.       Eight Rings (Empire Maker) started his career impressively at Del Mar. Then ran in four consecutive grade one races winning one (American Pharoah) at 7 furlongs in September of 2019. He did poorly in the other three and has been away for 9 months. Baffert does well with long layoffs, but this may be too long off to deliver a win.

 

     Picks 

With great weather and a fast track expected, the pace should be hot. The seven furlongs will test speed and stamina. We could see a tight photo finish with three of four nearing the wire at the same time. Here is how I think they will finish:

    1.       Exaulted (#1)

    2.       Shooters Shoot (#3)

    3.       Magic On Tap (#4)

    4.       Eight Rings (#5)

Handigamble:

With odds low and closely grouped, it is unlikely an exotic play will be rewarded. So, the win/place wager is the best play.

$50 to win and place on Exaulted #1  ($100)