No politics in the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes
By: Stuart deVoe, ThoroFan member
Welcome ThoroFan’s new handicapper, Stuart deVoe, an accomplished horseman and handicapper. Learn more about Stuart in his bio at the bottom of the article.
Formerly run as The Autumn Days (until 1999), The Sen. Ken Maddy Stakes will have its 50th running on Saturday at Santa Anita. Like last year, The Maddy will be contested at 5.5 furlongs on the turf. Prior to 2019, it was run on “down the dip” at 6.5 furlongs on the grass at The Great Race Place, where the starting gate was positioned at the top of a hill well above Santa Anita’s main track. On this unique layout, the horses would have a right-handed turn midway down the hill only to then cross over the dirt track before rejoining the lawn for an always exciting stretch run. Truth told, the “down the dips” were my favorite of all the turf sprints in the country.
I love turf sprints in general! When handicapping these races, there are a few things I look for when making my selections. I like to break up the race into 2 sections – the run from the gate to the far turn and then from the top of the stretch to the finish line.
At Santa Anita, 5.5F on the grass starts at the very beginning of the backstretch, and in fact, the gate is placed on the dirt course, so there is plenty of “run” until the field hits the far turn. Depending on how hotly contested this part of the race is, will determine how the last part is run.
When looking at the stretch run, I like to imagine if one put the field in a straight line across the top of the stretch, who would win that sprint home – 100-yard dash style. This, of course, doesn’t take into account ground loss around the turn or traffic within the running of the actual race. But that’s ok because what it does do is give the handicapper a true measure of a horse’s “closing kick.” Both the horses and the jockeys know they are racing. I will leave it up to them to figure out how to navigate the actual running of the race.
There are too many variables that happen within the event to quantify, so I simply don’t. I can, however, assign a “closing fraction” time by taking the half-mile split, adjusting for lengths behind the leader (1/5th of a second = 1 length is the general rule), and subtracting that from the final time (same adjustments for lengths beaten). For 5.5F that fraction will be for 3/16ths of a mile. It isn’t exactly from the top of the stretch home, but it is close, and we have numbers for it. If a horse can do that final fraction in :17 or less, watch for them to roll late, especially with a good pace in front of them. If that horse happens to be a speed type or a pace presser, he will win a fair amount of these. We call that having “like & stick.”
Now, to Saturday’s rendition.
#1. Jo Jo Air; Wesley Ward, Flavien Prat (5/2) – This well-traveled 4yo has racked up the frequent flyer miles going from Florida, Kentucky, California, Maryland, and now back to the left coast. A filly with good tactical speed who can lay close and pounce has competed in multiple stakes races and is 2nd race off a layoff. She has the cozy rail spot and connections that are well versed in turf sprints. Formidable.
#2. Biddy Duke; Doug O’Neill, JJ Hernandez (6-1) – Another one forwardly placed with 2 turf spins on her record. Her most recent race was a 3rd over this same layout. She had a bit of trouble early and weakened late in the stretch. Being a 3yo, one would think she has some upside. But, after 19 starts, one wonders how much more development she may have. Things would have to go her way on Saturday. Outside chance.
#3. An Eddie Surprise; Doug O’Neill, Mario Gutierrez (6-1) – A stakes winner over the course and distance with O’Neill’s 1st call rider (he has 3 entered) is coming off a February layoff. She is another that sits just off to mid-pack but possesses a good kick late (:17 or less multiple times). Look for her to be rolling late. The layoff is a small concern but not much as she is going so short 1st back. Contender.
#4. Lakerball; Doug O’Neill, Mike Smith (15-1) – The last of 3 entries from the O’Neill shed row has only had one spin at the distance and a steady diet of turf miles. That said, those events have been stakes. If she makes any impact, it will be in the late stages. Outsider.
#5. Magic at Midnight; Mark Glatt, Abel Cedillo (9-5) – Unbeaten in 4 starts by a combined 25+ lengths is the speed of the speed. This is the 4yo’s first stakes attempt, but she fits the profile of “lick & stick” to a tee. She did win a race on the Del Mar sod in August. This is the one they will have to run down to win. Contender.
#6. Aqua Seaform Shame; Richard Baltas, Umberto Rispoli – Another stalker/presser who has 2 wins and 1 second in 3 turf sprint attempts. This 3yo filly looks to have upside with only 6-lifetime starts, a turf sprint stakes placing, and connections that know how to spot their stock. Contender.
#7. Zee Drop; Phil D’Amato, Ricardo Gonzalez (8-1) – Another entrant cutting back from turf routes, although this entrant seems closer to the pace in those races than Lakerball. That said, I would anticipate her to come from off of it sprinting. She does have a 7F turf win at Belmont last June, albeit against much weaker company. Since heading west, she has improved a great deal. Long shot Chance.
Analysis – This is Magic at Midnight’s race to lose. She is big. She is fast. And she looks like she can not only finish but doesn’t let the competition get close. However, this is a Grade 3, and she hasn’t seen the likes of this sort of competition so Saturday is the acid test.
None of the other “speedy” types (Jo Jo Air, Biddy Duke, An Eddie Surprise) have the raw gas to go with her early, so she will win the race to the far turn AND have a head start on the pressers for the race to the wire. If any of the pressers try to go with her, they will sacrifice themselves for the benefit of the others.
A deep closer as a winner (Lakerball or Zee Drop) seems unlikely, but they don’t run the race on paper, and anything can happen.
With An Eddie Surprise’s and Aqua Seaform Shame’s closing fraction (sub :17), they will be tough down the lane.
Jo Jo Air is plenty capable and would surprise no one on the win end. She will appreciate getting back to a firmer & shorter cut turf course (Pimlico is deeper and the ground was yielding in her last start). I just don’t care for the price or the position in which she will find herself. Since she is the rail horse, she will have to use energy to keep position on the other stalkers and may pay the price. Her Daisycutter win at Del Mar back in July was aided by a perfect trip. I see Magic wiring this field and the pressers having a jump on the backers.
The Play: With the short field, it is not wise to spread too much. My wagering dollars need to be efficient since a juicy payoff is unlikely. I plan to play this “one way” for most of my bet with a small cover if I am wrong to save part of my wager.
$100 budget:
$25 exacta 5 with 3,6 = $50.
$10 exacta 5 with 3,6,7 = $30.
$2 Trifecta 5 with 3,6 with 3,6,7 = $8.
$2 exacta box 3,6,7 = $12.
If I am right, I have taken what is given and be paid for it. If not, the other payoffs don’t look sexy enough for the reward.
Bio
Stuart grew up just outside of Saratoga Springs, NY where he tagged along with his father every August for the races. Reading the racing form was not only enjoyable for Stuart but it was also a lifelong connection and love affair he shared with his dad, Big Stu. As he got older, Stuart became more serious with his horses. As a teen he was an accomplished equestrian and also worked on the backstretch of Saratoga Race Course through High School and his 4 years at University at Albany.
After completing his accounting degree, Stuart moved out to Las Vegas where he worked with a "Pick Six" Syndicate and honed his handicapping skills. Realizing that making that easy living was harder than anticipated, Stuart worked in hospitality to supplement his income. In 2005, he moved back to the Saratoga area and is now married with a beautiful wife and daughter. Any chance he gets, he has his nose in the racing form, watches replays and studies his passion that is racing.
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