Handicapper's Corner: 2019 Commonwealth Turf Stakes (G3)

Longshots at Play in Commonwealth Turf 

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman

 

With heavy rain last Thursday, the Churchill Downs turf course should be soft. The weather prediction for Saturday is dry. Clint Maroon and Faraway Kitten have a strategic running style and have raced well on soft turf. However, the large field will demand great riding acumen from jockeys who know the course and their mounts well.

There appears to be sufficient early speed; seven in the field show ability to exit the gate quickly. Clint Maroon should be tracking the leaders and possesses a solid kick to excite the crowd as the finish line approaches. He won’t be alone; expect Pirate Punch, Knicks Go and Mr. Dumas to not let Clint Maroon run away. Tactically, here is how the race should set-up:

Early Speed: Which horses should be leading the field into the first turn?

• Osage Moon (Malibu Moon)
• Spectacular Gem (Can the Man)
• Louder Than Bombs (Violence)

Strategic Speed: Which horses should be in the second and third tier waiting to make a move in the second turn?

• Clint Moon (Oasis Dream)
• Pirate Punch (Shanghai Bobby)
• Marquee Prince (Cairo Prince)
• Tiz Plus (Tizway)
• Knicks Go (Paynter)
• Armistice Day (Declaration of War)
• Mr. Dumas (Majesticperfection)
• Faraway Kitten ( Kitten’s Joy)

Closing Speed: Which horses will be making their move down the stretch?

• Tobacco Road 1,7,14,15,16
• Tracksmith (Street Sense)
• Journeyman (Animal Kingdom)
• AE-Proliferate (Declaration of War
• AE-Clear Vision (Artie Schiller)

Spectacular Gem will likely take command on the far turn. Clint Maroon should make the first move to challenge Spectacular Gem with Pirate Punch, Knicks Go and Mr. Dumas making sure he doesn’t run away. The biggest late threat should come from Tracksmith; however it may be hard to surpass the five in the stretch. 

Here is how they will finish:

1. Clint Maroon (#3) (10/1)
2. Mr. Dumas (#11) (6/1)
3. Knicks Go (#9) (12/1)
4. Spectacular Gem (#6) (6/1)
5. Tracksmith (#7) (5/1)

Handigamble ($100)

$25 win on: Clint Maroon (#3) $25.00

$2 Trifecta Box: (Clint Maroon (#3), Mr. Dumas (#11), Knicks Go (#9) and Spectacular Gem (#6)) $48.00

$2 Trifecta Key: Clint Maroon (#3) over (#6,#7,#9 and #11) over (#6,#7, #9 and #11) $24.00

Good luck, but keep the day job!