En Garde at the Wire
By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Chairman
This is a renewal for this race at Belmont Park on Stars and
Stripes weekend. It is also a renewal for this handicapper to try to figure out
the race. Last year my pick, Hunting Horn, finished third. None of my other
picks were in the money. Although I am hoping this year will be different, the
large field of highly competitive horses is a challenge.
The weather may impact
the turf for the Belmont Derby Invitational and make this handicapping
assignment even more difficult. With a 40% chance of scatter thunderstorms it
is likely to make the turf soft. Watch for those that like softer going.
With a million-dollar
purse the race has attracted a large field of good horses. A case can be made
for a number of them to win or figure into the exotics. Tough race.
A tell to understanding this race’s outcome may be the
breeding and European entries who may like the soft going better than others.
Three of them are using Lasix for the first time; a drug that is not used in
their respective countries, but thought to have some performance enhancing
qualities. O’Brien’s two are first-time-starters in North America and are
first-time Lasix users.
Three horses have shown sufficient early speed to keep the
pace honest. They are Standard Deviation, Social Paranoia and Spinoff---all
North American horses. However, it seems the strength in the race is possessed
by those that come off the pace. This race should have an exciting finish.
Here is the field:
1. Moon Colony
(Uncle Mo) Won last out and will like the soft going; if it is. Distance may be
his problem. Post position is not a plus. Not today.
2. Standard
Deviation (Curlin) Did OK in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year.
Working nicely. Gets Brown’s rider Ortiz (J). May be Brown’s pace setter with
some early speed. Is showing an improving pattern. Should be a contender
through the stretch, as long as he can last.
3. Seismic
Wave (Tapit) Working nice. Mott prepped him over Belmont turf for this one.
Fast in the lane. He has a good deal of
stakes-turf experience. He is a contender for exotics.
4. English Bee
(English Channel) Big class jump for this one. Will have trouble in the last
furlong.
5. Plus Que
Parfait (Point of Entry) UAE Derby win causes respect. May try to push the
pace. Turf ability is questionable.
6. Henley’s
Joy (Kitten’s Joy) Lower level turf stakes experience will help him here.
Bullet work shows Maker has him ready. If the turf is soft it may compromise
his chances. Not sure.
7. Master
Fencer (JPN) (Just a Way) His close in the Belmont Stakes (GI) on the wrong
lead was impressive. Turf and distance seem ok. If he performs equally on the
turf as he has on the dirt, he is a serious contender. Bringing in Japanese
jockey Hamanaka is a powerful message. Contender.
8. Social
Paranoia (Street Boss) Looks like the best of Pletcher’s duo. However, J.
Ortiz goes to Brown’s entry. Ran well over Belmont turf. Is expected to take
the lead out of the gate. Maybe Franco can do it. Be cautious.
9. Cape of
Good Hope (IRE) (Galileo) This a solid O’Brien runner. Perfect for
distance. Had trouble in last finding a gap. Not sure if that explains the
result or is his form waning. Has a win going left-handed in April at Epsom.
New jockey raises questions.
10. Spinoff
(Hard Spun) Has grade one experience, albeit without a win. Maybe too much to
ask here as he tries turf for the first time. One thing seems likely. He will
be pushing the pace out-of-the-gate.
11. Blenheim
Palace (IRE) (Galileo) Another O’Brien horse that comes west with new
jockey and Lasix for first time. Plenty of left-handed running experience.
Breeding by Galileo is a positive against these. Ran well against older-horses
last time, which may be an important angle. Possible.
12. Demarchelier
(IRE) (Dubawi) Brown’s English entry who comes into the race undefeated on turf
with jockey Castellano. Each race showed improvement. Belmont experience a
positive. Distance may be an issue down the stretch. Could be in exotics.
13. Digital Age
(IRE) (Invincible Spirit) Keeps Irad Ortiz after closing to win a grade two at
Churchill Downs on Derby Day and remaining undefeated. Rested with nice turf
works at Belmont. Should be ready. Breeding questions distance. Contender, if
has the stamina.
14. Rockemperor
(IRE) (Holy Roman Emperor) Gets jockey Velazquez in his North American debut.
Brown tries Lasix for first time. Showed good form over turf at this distance
last year. Should like the soft going. Brown’s best chance to win.
15. He’s No
Lemon (Lemon Drop Kid) [AE] Chance he will draw into the race, if Brown
scratches Demarchelier. Castellano performed with him in last Belmont. Too much
to ask here, if he draws in. Pass
With full field it is likely some horses’ performance could
be compromised by post-position and bumping coming out of the gate. Condition
of the turf course may be a factor, as well. As the field rounds the first turn
the aforementioned speed horse should be in the first wave. The others will be
positioning for their later moves. The most dangerous horse in the field is the
Japanese horse, Master Fencer. He will be positioned near the rear of the field
down the backside. As they enter the stretch Standard Deviation should have the
lead with the closers coming. The likely challengers to take the lead are
Master Fencer, the O’Brien entry, Blenheim Palace, Mott’s Seismic Wave and
Brown’s, Rockemperor. This a race worth chasing some value.
Here is how I see the race finishing:
1. Master
Fencer (#7)
2. Blenheim
Palace (#11)
3. Seismic Wave
(#3)
4. Rockemperor
(#14)
Handigamble ($100)
$10 to win and $30 to place on Master Fencer (#7) ($40)
$5 Exacta Box (Master Fencer (#7), Blenheim Palace (#11) and
Seismic Wave (#3)) ($30)
$1 Trifecta Box (Master Fencer (#7), Blenheim Palace (#11),
Seismic Wave (#3) and Rockemperor (#14) ($24) (Use the balance to celebrate
your win).
Good Luck, but keep the day job.
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