2017 Juvenile Champ Returns in Fountain of Youth
By: Laurie Ross, IMTBreds
The Fountain of Youth is a strong,
competitive race and this year is no exception. The 1 1/16 mile event attracted
ten three-year-old colts, including last year’s Champion Juvenile Good Magic,
who is kicking off his three-year-old campaign. Trainer Dale Romans entered a
trio of contenders, led by Holy Bull runner-up Free Drop Billy.
The
Stars
Good
Magic
– The 2YO Champ makes his seasonal debut against an improving field. I doubt
he’s cranked for the victory, and by Curlin out of a Hard Spun mare, he’ll
improve with maturity and distance. In his last breeze, Good Magic had an easy
leg stretcher and looked a lot like his sire, big and powerful. In 2012, Union Rags won the Fountain of Youth
off the layoff after his narrow miss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Probable
favorite.
Free
Drop Billy – His Bris SF was the
highest of his career in the Holy Bull, and he should take a step forward here.
The flashy Chestnut son of Union Rags out of a Giant’s Causeway mare should
just get better as the year progresses. Ashley thinks Billy must get past Good
Magic. I think it’s vice versa because Billy has the advantage of a recent race
over the track. Obvious win contender.
Strike
Power
– gets the opportunity to stretch his speed in the Fountain of Youth. The
powerful colt wired the Swale Stakes field without being challenged. By
Speightstown out of a multiple stakes-winning turf router, Strike Power should
find 1 1/16 miles well within his scope. As Ashley noted, Strike Power has been
fast out of the gate and is untested. He may do the same thing here. However,
Mark Henning tipped his hand with Strike Power’s last breeze. The colt sat
behind an older allowance winner, took aim down the stretch, and had his head
in front at the wire. Powerful win contender.
Live
Longshot
Gotta
Go –
showed talent as a juvenile and was best of the rest behind the speedy Strike
Power in the Swale. The distinctively marked son of Shanghai Bobby got his
final furlong in 12.91 in the Swale, and it was the only sub-13 number in the
field. Gotta Go had a deceptively nice second to last breeze and moved smoothly, with flickering ears. He isn’t as
muscular as Free Drop Billy and Power Strike but keep an eye on him. Ian Wilkes has a nice colt who should be moving
strongly at the end. Good enough to win?
Could be a sneaky longshot play.
Wildcard
Machismo – has the pedigree
to improve with maturity. He lorded over a herd of maidens with an 11-length
score in his latest race. The son of More Than Ready should love the extra
distance and speed figures indicate he should move forward. Machismo zipped a
sharp 5F 58.45 pre-race breeze. Trainer Anthony Quartarolo is 0-18 with horses
stretching out the first time. Stranger things have happened.
Exotic
Plays
He
Takes Charge
– needed time to find the winner’s circle, but with a fast track and two turns,
had his picture taken last time out. It was his best race to date, and he can
move forward. His sole breeze was a sharp 4F, which was the second-best work of
the day. There’s plenty of class in the pretty gray colt’s distaff line. His
dam is a half-sister to FL Derby hero Take Charge Indy, 3YO Champ Will Take
Charge, and a half sister bore 2YO Filly Champ Take Charge Brandi. Lots of positives, but unless the race falls
apart, he’ll need to move faster. Exotics.
Marconi – has flashed
potential but hasn’t generated the same charge on the track as he did in the
sales ring. Marconi is a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Classic hero Mucho Macho
Man, and Marconi’s full sister Southern Girl is a stakes winning sprinter. Pletcher’s 2 million dollar sales baby was
hindered by the pace-favoring track in the Withers, but the colt’s Trakus
figures were comparable to Avery Island’s. Marconi cuts back in distance, and if he can get a good trip
under Castellano, Marconi could be charging at the end.
Not Gonna
Get There Today
Storm
Runner
– was very green but out-gamed Mississippi in his last race. Despite having six
starts under his girth, the flashy Chestnut son of Get Stormy was very green in his last two starts. One of the trio
entered by Dale Romans, Storm Runner hit
a career-best Bris speed figure of 102, a 19-point jump from his previous five
starts, so he’ll either seriously regress, or he’s getting very good very fast.
Talented, but unpredictable. Pass.
Promises
Fulfilled
– has a tough task in the FOY, and I’m not convinced he’s up to it. Unless Irad
Ortiz, Jr. takes Promises Fulfilled off the lead and out of his normal pace
setting running style, they’ll have to gun
early to get a good position and will be hung wide for the first portion of the
race. Add in a distance challenged
pedigree, a first start of the year, and the only promise that will be
fulfilled is that he’ll be backing up in the stretch. Pass.
Peppered – is making his
seasonal debut in a tough spot. The son of Tapizar showed promise at Woodbine
but had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club last year. Peppered has
been breezing strongly at Palm Meadows. His second to last bullet breeze of 5F
in 1:00.30 was done easily under his own power, and he galloped out well. His
last work in 1:02 was concerning. Peppered was lathered like a shampoo
commercial and while not being urged, didn’t seem to be moving as easily as
previously. Trainer Reade Baker wasn’t
concerned about his charge’s breeze. Pass.
Track
bias: Gulfstream has a notable speed bias. In the last 15 years, six Fountain of Youth
winners wired the field, four were pace pressers, three were closers, and the
rest settled mid-pack early. Posts 8 and
higher aren’t a great spot traveling two turns on the main track.
Six of the last ten Fountain of Youth winners
tuned up with a winning effort in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. In
fact, only two horses, Union Rags and Mohaymen, didn’t have a prep race at
Gulfstream before capturing the Grade 2 event.
Selections
The pace could be hot, and that could set it
up for a stretch runner. Enter Free Drop Billy. He doesn’t have to be too far
off the pace and can pick up the pieces in the stretch. If Strike Power gets
away with an uncontested lead and slows the pace down, or alternatively, can
settle into a pace-pressing mode, he could be very tough. Can’t discount the
2YO Champ Good Magic, but he doesn’t have to win, just shake the rust off and
aim for the Florida Derby. Is Gotta Go
this year’s version of Gunnevera?
#2 Free
Drop Billy (9-2)
#4
Strike Power (4-1)
#6 Good
Magic (7-5)
#7
Gotta Go (10-1)
Handigambling
$100 ThoroFan Coin
$2 Super Box - #2, #4, #6, #7 = $24
$2 Key Box - #2/#4, #6 /#1, #4, #6, #7, #8/#1,
#4, #6, #7, #8, #9 = $64
$2 Longshot play (5-1 or higher) #7, #9 = $12
No comments:
Post a Comment