Friday, January 12, 2018

Handicapper's Corner: Silverbulletday Stakes

Fair Grounds Fillies vie in Silverbulletday Stakes

By Nicolle Neulist, Blinkers-Off



The series of Kentucky Oaks prep races at Fair Grounds begins with the Silverbulletday Stakes. The race was instituted in 1992 and originally named after Tiffany Lass, who is now the namesake of a different stakes at Fair Grounds. It was renamed in 2010 to honour Silverbulletday, who had been inducted into the Hall of Fame the previous year. 


Silverbulletday was the American Champion Two Year Old Filly in 1998, and then the American Champion Three Year Old Filly in 1999. Though Silverbulletday did not contest this race (then known as the Tiffany Lass Stakes), she decisively won two Kentucky Oaks prep races at the Fair Grounds in 1999: the Davona Dale Stakes (G3) and the Fair Grounds Oaks (G3).  She did win the Kentucky Oaks in 1999, as well as the Black-Eyed Susan, the Alabama, and the Gazelle.

One filly has won the Silverbulletday on the way to a Kentucky Oaks victory: Believe You Can, who kicked off her three-year-old campaign here, and also won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) on her path to Kentucky Oaks glory.  I'm a Chatterbox, who won the Silverbulletday two years ago, went on to sweep the entire series of Oaks preps at the Fair Grounds, finish third in the Kentucky Oaks, and win the Grade 1 Cotillion at age three.  Another notable winner of this race is 2004 winner Lotta Kim.  She never raced again after winning this race, but she produced 2009 Kentucky Oaks hero Rachel Alexandra.

Race 7: Silverbulletday Stakes, three-year-old fillies, one mile and seventy yards on the dirt, post time 4:05pm CST
This year's Silverbulletday drew a competitive field of twelve to vie for a $150,000 purse, as well as Kentucky Oaks points (10-4-2-1) for the top four finishers.  Wonder Gadot, cross-entered in the Lecomte, is likely to stay with fillies here; however, only eleven are expected to race, as Stellar Moon  is expected  to run in a one-other-than on January 19 instead.

Though the race drew several marquee shippers who we'll tackle later, we'll tab on top a runner who is trying stakes company for the first time, but boasts Fair Grounds affinity and solid Fair Grounds connections: America's Tale.  The daughter of Gio Ponti tried two turns on dirt for the first time on December 17, and romped in the Fair Grounds slop.  Regular rider Brian Hernandez, who has taken the call for all but one race of her career, returns to ride the Bernie Flint trainee.  Though the risk is that America's Tale might be a slop monster, she also has a resounding maiden special weight victory over fast dirt at Churchill, as well as a pair of second-place finishes on fast dirt before she got her diploma.  Her running style should also suit the race: she is a forward-style runner going long, but showed last out that she can sit just off the pace if the likes of Wonder Gadot or Noblame grabs the front end instead.

Blonde Bomber has not raced since the Breeders' Cup, but comes into the Silverbulletday off a regular set of works since late November.  A big worry going to Del Mar was whether the daughter of Fort Larned was just a Gulfstream Park Horse as her first six starts came down there, but she took the move and the class rise well and finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).  That race was also her first two-turn test, a test she passed.  Blonde Bomber has the tactical versatility to run well from just off the pace or from well off it -- a positive, since there are a few horses who can be forward, but no cluster of one-way speed likely to burn each other out and cause a true pace collapse.

Trainer Mark Casse sends a classy one-two punch of Wonder Gadot and Heavenly Love.  It would be no surprise to see either of them do well, but both will be short prices.  Heavenly Love is a tougher read, and a bit less trustworthy at a short price.  Her Alcibiades (G1) dazzled, but her Breeders' Cup was not good.  She still hast to answer the question of which one is the real Heavenly Love.  3/1 on the morning line seems short; should she drift up to 5/1, she becomes intriguing, but it would be a surprise to see her at such a good price. 

For a shorter-priced horse to use defensively, Wonder Gadot has a bit more allure.  She not only held up a lot better in the Breeders' Cup than her stablemate, but followed that up with a comfortable cruise in the Demoiselle (G2) a month later.  She should be part of the front vanguard here, but with a stalking gear, Wonder Gadot is unlikely to be truly burned up in that role.  It's also a positive to see that John Velazquez is shipping out to stick with her; Velazquez first took the call with her in the Demoiselle, and the fact that he's leaving New York suggests he thinks she is the real deal.  It's hard not to trust his judgment, and Wonder Gadot can't be left off even at a short price.


Selections:
#6 America's Tale (8/1)
#1 Blonde Bomber (7/2)
#2 Wonder Gadot (2/1)

Longshot:  #9 Missive (15/1) makes her first foray into stakes company, and does have some tables to turn on top choice America's Tale.  Yet, she is still lightly raced compared to many of her foes -- with only four starts behind her, she has plenty of room to improve.  The mile and seventy yards at Fair Grounds should suit her, as well - she broke her maiden over that course and distance on a fast track, then finished second in a lst-out allowance in the mud.  Missive's tactical speed is a major positive.  So are her human connections: trainer Mike Stidham has been winning almost a quarter of the time this meet, and Missive keeps 30% Fair Grounds rider Joe Bravo from her last two starts.

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