Malagacy vs. the Empire in Arkansas Derby
By: Dylan Jarmulowicz, Wireplayers.com
Saturday
is the last of the major Kentucky Derby prep races and it is hard to believe
that the Kentucky Derby is only three weeks away. The Arkansas Derby has a rich
history, recent champions include Victory Gallop, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex,
Curlin and American Pharoah to name a few. This year’s edition of the Grade I
Arkansas Derby features a field of 12 and a one-million-dollar purse. Will
favorites Classic Empire or Malagacy win or will it be an upset to wrap up prep
season?
Race
11 – 9 Furlongs ( 1 1/8 Mile) Post Time – 7:18pm (Eastern)
Advance
Weather: Partly Sunny, 70s
This
race is unique when first analyzing it. The two favorites #2 CLASSIC EMPIRE
(8/5) and #12 MALAGACY (2-1) while both talented, have some glaring question
marks.
CLASSIC EMPIRE only has one start this year and lost
as a heavily backed favorite. But it was coming off a long layoff since winning
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. Horses tend to need a start after
winning a BC race and while the Holy Bull was a tough spot to come back in, he
makes this start after another two-month layoff. Most likely he will be heavily
bet again and I ask myself if it’s a smart bet playing him at a short price,
I’m not sure.
MALAGACY won the Rebel Stakes last start which
is the local prep for the AK Derby and couldn’t have looked much better. His
stalker run style is also a plus. Combine that with Javier Castellano aboard
and you have a serious contender. Even from the 12 post he should be fine. Castellano
will find a way to save ground on one turn giving him a great chance at being
in the winner’s circle. I prefer him to CLASSIC EMPIRE and to win the race.
Price
plays include #4 PETROV (12-1) and #9 UNTAPPED (6-1).
PETROV is just a classic blue collar horse
who gives it everything he has every time. I always root for these kinds of
horses and while he may not be the most talented in the race, he could be a
nice addition to a exacta or Trifecta ticket.
UNTAPPED is a real interesting alternative to
the favorites if you do not like either. He’s a closer in a race with speed and
with the blinkers added; he may focus a little better which can help. He also
has been hung out wide in the last couple starts and still ran on strong, maybe
he has the “seconditus” syndrome but he has a chance to upset this year’s
running of the AK Derby.
My Plays:
WIN:
#12 MALAGACY (2-1)
EX:
12/4,9
TRI:
12/2,4,9/2,4,9,11
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