Friday, August 19, 2016

Handicapper's Corner: Pacific Classic Stakes (G1)

Surfing into the 2016 Pacific Classic Stakes (G1)

By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan  Member

Del Mar - Pacific Classic Stakes Grade I – 1 & ¼ Miles $1M

Weather will be ideal for the 26th running of the Pacific Classic at Del Mar with sunny skies, 78° and winds about 10mph down the stretch run. What a test of Champions is in store for the crowd at this prestigious event. With eight guys and a lady out for a frolicking date it should be exciting.

#1 - California Chrome – Who doesn’t like a great champion who has taken his talents around the globe? And what can I add to the past performances statements he’s made? Nothing. His four race win streak speaks volume about his ability. His come home race against Dortmund was visually impressive by every viewer’s standard. The battle down the stretch was incredible. His ability to generate middle and closing speed with his determination in the lane makes him the great champion he is. His works since his last and the bullet on the 14th indicate he’s ready and Art Sherman’s numbers for graded stakes wins at 41% validates Chrome is ready. Enough said. He is the Champ and my top pick. Hopefully there will be value in his price with the other two champions finishing with him.

#7 - Beholder – Has there been a lady with this much winning talent since the Queen of Racing stepped down from her throne? No. Out of the money only twice in 23 races with 17 wins and 4 seconds. One came last out at a shorter distance breaking an 8 race win streak. I like everything I’ve seen. She was last year’s winner in this race with a 112 Bris speed, highest in the field, and she will likely wait in the first half mile as she did last year and rally to the lane with Chrome and her other date, Dortmund, trailing. She is my second pick and may be able to do it twice in a row. May be more value.

#8 - Dortmund – Stalwart winner with 8 victories in 11 races. Not afraid of a lane battle, keeps great company and enjoys his work. And had a great comeback race against Chrome last out after an 8 month break. Although I think he is a great winner I suspect this is not his ideal distance as he has only been in the money once in two tries at the distance according to Bris. He Herculean effort last out from a layoff concerns me as well. The jockey change is interesting and Buffett likes winning. Maybe a different tactic for this race???  Although he’s a great contender I will look at others for more value to add to the two above.

For me there are others for this event that provide betting value and have shown promise of being near the winners above. Based on their performances, connections, and rest cycle, I placed them in order of preference.  

#6 – Imperative well rested and works show he’s ready for a big one.  

#9 – Dalmore is rested and the connections are looking to make history. 

#2 – Hoppertunity is the closer with great connections and has faced the likes of the best here and overseas. 

And finally, #4 – Hard Aces showed his ability in the Cougar and can’t be overlooked. For me the others are a toss in the betting plan.

I don’t see a win bet worth playing for this race but if that is your frame of mind, or the only way you bet then a Dutch bet on three contenders may be the way to go. I will play a Trifecta and Superfecta as shown below. 

The betting money for today is $100.80.
$3 Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,6,7,9 with 1,2,4,6,7,9   Total:  $72

And good luck to the Lady…
$0.80 Superfecta: 7 w 1,6,7,9 w 1,2,4,6,7,9 w 1,2,4,6,7,9.  Total: $28.80

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