2016 Diana Stakes: Classy Lassies
By: John Caro, S. FL ThoroFan
Diana Stakes Grade I -
$500K F&M 3 and Up – 1 & 1/8th Miles
Opening
weekend at Saratoga offers the Diana Stakes on Sunday with Classy Lassies, Stylish
Ladies, top trainers and jockeys. Weather conditions are forecast to be ideal,
high in the upper 80’s, bright and clear, light winds and dry. Should be
cooling by race time. This likely to be a pace driven race that may be hotter
than the weather.
#1 Sandia (12-1) – This five year old mare has
numerous grade II and III races and ITM in all three races this year. Regular
works since her last outing three and a half months ago look good. She’s gone
this distance once at Gulfstream and won in a good time with Castellano aboard.
Her more than half a million won on the turf has to be respected and Pletcher
must have been saving her for this race for a piece. I’m not thrilled with the
jockey change and looking through her competition today, I’ll use her in the
bottom of a Superfecta.
#2 Miss Temple City (3-1) – I like this speedy filly recently
vacationing at Ascot with Ryan Moore finishing fourth by 3&1/4 with top
company. Her two works (one on the lawn) were and her ITM finishes at the
distance make her a contender. Despite the Bris power rating, her race at
Keeneland in the QE II Cup at a price with this jockey and Motion’s ability to
surprise in these situations give me the confidence to place her second and third on my selections.
#3 Strike Charmer (15-1) – This elder Lady of the group did
not done well against this competition when seen in the Just A Game Stakes. That race was within 1 one hundredth of the
track record. Charmer failed to respond. What scares me is Junior won the JAG Stakes with Celestine (7-1) and has
this mount today. And she could be the wild card as she can go a quick pace
near the lead and won 3 of 6 lifetime at this distance. Henning has conditioned
her on the lawn much closer to this race than the last outing. This could be
the classic longshot situation. Failed last out, when winning she’s at a price,
Junior’s ITM performance here last year was as good on the lawn as everyone’s
and better training regimen…..I like it! Second
and all below in exotics with a separate win bet. Special look here.
#4 Wekeela (7-2)
– One of four entries for Chad Brown and this one has been blessed with a great
pedigree. Additionally, she gets last year’s number two turf jockey,
Castellano, as her pilot. Her last out was a nice run as the favorite but was
quite wide through the turn and between in the stretch. The close was good. She
seems to be ready for this race with a steady line for works on the grass at
Belmont. Top trainer, top jock, competitive girl. Have to consider her a win
selection. First or second for this
race.
#5 Mrs. McDougal (10-1) – Another JAG Stakes runner from Chad who showed a lot of heart at a shorter
distance. Breeding says she can go the distance though she’s only had the
chance once before and Miss Temple City ran ahead of her. I think her distance
is the mile and a sixteenth and less. Love the trainer and jockey but I’m
playing her to finish down the line in a Superfecta.
#6 Dacita (5-1) – And
another Chad entry who certainly impressed with her close at a mile and a
quarter in the New Yorker but, the pace for the NY’r was pedestrian through a
mile. Looking back at her runs in the Very One at Gulfstream and the Jenny
Wiley at Keeneland says to me she will need to be placed in a closer stalking
position to win. The pace for this race should be moderate in the start and
just getting much faster through the final turn. Last year’s top turf rider at
this track is aboard and this lady deserves respect. If Irad gets position and
has the energy to close, she could be close
to the winner.
#7 Receipts (9-2) – A non ‘Chad’ entry who was second
last out in the JAG Stakes and has
run against this competition before. Nicely done but has been beaten by Strike
Charmer and Wekeela in the prior two races at a mile and a sixteenth. Just not
sure this is the right distance for her. Even though Johnny V is piloting
today, she is in my game for this race but on the bottom of exotics.
#8 Onus (15-1) – She has a nice record against
lesser. Best effort was in the Commonwealth at Laurel last September. Top
trainer and jockey but I’m not sure this lass can stand the competition. Not in
my game today.
#9 Rainha Da Bacteria
(20-1) - Another
of Chad’s also ran in the JAG Stakes
who came from the clouds and was way short of the goal. Seems to be a dead
closer and her closing speed although fast, may not be enough to get it done
this time either. The great news is Leparoux has the patience to drive her home
if she has a closer position. Bottom of the Tri-Superfectas.
#10 Isabella Sings (8-1) – That’s my girl! Rates a forth on the
Bris prime power but her ability to run in the front in good fractions followed
by better fractions gives her the opportunity to create a pace scenario that
others may not handle or track a swift pace and finish well. Pace has been on
her four times since last September with three wins and a nose loss. Her middle
pace/speed is tough to argue with. Distance is not a question for her and
although she has only logged one recorded work since her last race, I think she
is very capable of the challenge from the rest of the field. She is my top pick today.
Bets: Watch the Tote
hand see how the betting goes on the 3 and 10. It might make your choice of
bets below easier. I like the 10 as noted but, the 3 fascinates me enough to
put him there as well.
$2 Trifecta: 10 /3,4,6 /
2,3,4,5,6,7,9 Total: $36
$1 Trifecta: 3,4,6 / 10
/ 2,3,4,5,6,7,9 Total: $18
$0.20 Superfecta: 3 / 6,4,10 / 2,4,5,6,7,9,10 / 2,4,5,6,7,9,10 Total
$18
$2 Exacta All with
3 Total $18
$10 Win 3
Good luck today…
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