Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Diana Stakes (G1)

 

 Diana Stakes Preview: 

Is She Feels Pretty Unbeatable?

By: MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper

The $500,000 Diana Stakes is a highlight of Saratoga’s opening weekend on Saturday. Older fillies and mares will travel 1 1/8 miles over the inner turf.

Post time for the Diana Stakes is 6:14 PM EST. The turf should be firm. 

We have a very short field today. Out of 6 horses, 2 are trained by Chad Brown. It’s hard to avoid using at least one of his horses in the superfecta. It’s also hard to beat Trainer Cherie DeVaux’s She Feels Pretty. I will give it my best shot though!

My picks today are: 2-1-6-5

Top Pair: 2. Choisya and 1. She Feels Pretty

If any horse has a chance to beat She Feels Pretty, it is Choisya (8-1) with one of my favorite jockeys, Luis Saez. This filly came off a layoff from Meydan and won the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland in April. When many horses struggle to win off any race, let alone a win, in Meydan, Choisya continues to show she’s different. One could throw out her last race due to the yielding turf at Saratoga and justify that she could give She Feels Pretty a run for her money.

At even-money, She Feels Pretty has had two starts at this distance and surface, and won both starts. Choisya has had 2 starts as well and won once. It all depends if Johnny V is going to get She Feels Pretty to the front or hold her where she likes in the third or fourth position, not exactly a closer and not exactly a presser either. Both will be vying to sit off the pace. The question will be: Who will be first?

Bottom Pair: 6. Be Your Best and 5. Dynamic Pricing

I would be shocked if Be Your Best (6-1) doesn’t go to the front with Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. She likes to be at the front. She also fits my “rested criteria” that I have mentioned in previous write-ups. However, I would like to see a couple of bullet workouts in order to put her in my top pair. I think she will set the pace and be overtaken by the many closers in this race.

This leads me to Dynamic Pricing (9-2). I think she has the speed to conquer She Feels Pretty and Choisya, however, not enough to win. I could be surprised, as Jockey Dylan Davis has been on fire on the turf. Her last race out was on yielding turf, where she won. Dynamic Power seems to like yielding turf as she has won twice with some of her best Beyer speeds on yielding turf.

Handigambling:

$10 to win on 2. Choisya

$2 exacta box: 2-1 ($4)

.50 cent trifecta box: 2-1-6 ($3)

.10 cent superfecta box: 2-1-6-5 ($2.40)

TOTAL Bet: $19.40

 

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Belmont Derby (G1)

 Smart Value Plays for the Belmont Derby

By: John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper 

Back to Saratoga, isn’t that refreshing? What a great track, but my fear is that it has rained so many weekends around Albany and the vicinity, yet the forecast is for fair weather.

There’s a great field in Friday’s Belmont Derby, with many who can contend. One Rabbit and a bunch of closers who like various positions to strike.

The odds in this field are very tight for the listed top contenders, and it’s hard to imagine a good longshot to come in the money with them, but if you’re going to wager, you must find value where you can as a handicapper or bow out. As a ThoroFan, pick your favorite and enjoy the race with a small wager on your pick. It should be a well-run race at a shorter than usual distance.

The 1 1/8 mile, Grade 1 event is featured as the ninth on an 11 race card with a 5:45 PM ET post time.

 Here are my top picks based on Brisnet Prime Power

#6 Final Gambit – Cox/Prat – Gotta love the connections here. No question the form from the Derby says he can close like a freighter and had trouble getting there with many horses in front of him. He has great form on synthetic and a nice run first time out on the lawn….will that turf form shine through? Can’t leave him off the ticket.

#5 Test Score – Motion/Franco – Never gone the distance but has all the breeding to go long. Kitten Joy mare, the colt is well suited for any turf, anywhere. Is ITM 6 of 7 races against some good company. Missed last out by 1.25 in the Grade I American Turf at Churchill…have to consider a top play and at 4-1 will be worth a single wager.

#4 New Century  - Walsh/Murphy  - Murphy has been up on all but one race, has the speed and pace to close on others. Has the most Grade I experience in the field. Last out, he didn’t gain anything in the last turn. If he runs his race like the Summer or the BC Juvenile Turf, he may well win. The one that looks like he should win based on form and prior races. Top pick for me

The Field

#1 Tank – David/Saez – Here is the Rabbit of the field. Has been tearing it up at Gulfstream in some listed stakes. This is a big step forward. I think he will start and set the pace, which will definitely make the race. All horses behind him are closers, midpack or longer. Don’t see him winning, but might use in the bottom of exotics. Luis can set and reset the pace in his favor as we’ve seen before, leaving deep closers out in the cold.

#2 Early Adopter – Brown/Ortiz J. – No doubt this guy should be on the turf and run forever in a longer race. Don’t think his speed will match others in the race. Great trainer, but his stats entering this level under these conditions have not proven successful for him. Not one I would wager on in the top two.

#3 Luther – Fellowes/Shoemark – This little devil (no pun, well maybe a bit) is quite stout given his company. He raced against my top pick, losing by a small margin as a 2-year-old. You have to consider that Euro horses run on rather uneven, undulating turf, not flat, and often quite gnarly, soft, and heavy. Not flat tracks like we have here. Give this guy some respect. He might surprise. Could be a good solo play at 6-1 and likely higher…win and exacta play.

#7 World Beater – Mott, R./Torres – Look at the history. He tried the dirt two times and could not find the track. Moves to turf and OMG, He’s a new horse. Not a high-level player, but what great form coming into this race. I like the thought of young Riley moving into this level. The colt is two for two at the distance and keeps up with 1:35 at a mile and pressed on to win in excellent times at Churchill. Two back, he split horses, and Jamie wasn’t afraid to do it. Sounds like a confident combination. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the exacta at all at 10-1. Excellent longshot play.

#8 Flying Mohawk  - Beckman/Dettori  - We are racing in the land of the Mohawks, so what better to have this entry. Things to note: last race was a wash. He wasn’t able to get out and play with the field with 18 others, a sloppy track is not his preference, He has run against the ML favorite and closed well with a 106 pace to finish second against Final Gambit, finally, one of the world’s best turf riders is up for this race…Danger… don’t leave this guy off your ticket.

Handigambling

It’s going to be a contentious pace with Tank taking the lead and deciding how that will play out till the mile mark. Expect someone to press, likely World Beater or Test Score.

You can pick one here at a reasonable price to WPS or not. The odds don’t preclude a wager, but the prospects are narrow. I’ll do the below☆ as it makes sense to me without spending wild sums for a ‘perfect’ win

$3 EXACTA – All with 3,7,8  $63 hoping two longshots team up.

Or my wager…

The best longshot bet based on his form and odds is #7

☆Another way to play for $63….$3 exacta All with 7, $12 to Win 7, $30 to show 7   $63

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Stephen Foster Handicap (G1)

 Seeking Value in Loaded Stephen Foster

By: The Turk, ThoroFan Handicapper 

 

Sierra Leone: Photo Credit Mark Abraham

                                                        Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 18th year.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today. 

While only a seven horse field, with one horse, Ashcroft, being a cut well below, the other six, wow:  All six combine for $25.9 MM in career earnings, a Breeders' Cup Classic Winner, a Kentucky Derby Winner, a Blue Grass Winner and a Dubai World Cup.  That's a pretty impressive field.  

Let's take a deeper dive into the field and look at some video as well.  

Oaklawn Handicap G2;  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 19 April 2025

The Churchill Downs G1; 7f on slop; 3 May 2025

 

The "Hollywood" Gold Cup G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt; 26 May 2025

 

New Orleans Classic G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 22 March 2025

 

Blame G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 31 May 2025

 

Clark Handicap G2; 1 1/8 on Fast Dirt; 29 November 2024 

 

Dubai World Cup G1; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt (LH)

 

So what to do with this?  I'll be honest, I'm not sure without seeing the toteboard odds.  I'm leaning towards Sierra Leone OVER First Mission and Skippylongstocking.  4 OVER 1 and 3, a $2 Dollar bet for $4.  

Nothing exciting, just my thoughts of what might have value.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out.  

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Ohio Derby (G3)

 Digging for Gold in Ohio Derby

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

 

Now that the Triple Crown races are in the rear-view mirror, we can all exhale and sort out the rest of the 3-year-old crop. It is clear that the top three of the division (Sovereignty, Journalism & Baeza) may be superior animals not only in this year but in many others as well. But the good news for the rest of them is that there is plenty of money to be run in different Derbies around the country. 

This weekend, we stop in North Randall, home of Thistledown, to run the Ohio Derby (G3). $500k is on the line and if you have a 3-year-old that can run a bit, that’s plenty of reasons to ship in and see what happens. That’s not to say that some of the locals won’t take a swing as well.

The Ohio Derby is featured as race 12, the last of the day, with a 6:20 PM post time. The track will be fast. 

1. Brereton’s Baytown (30-1)  Would move up on an off-track as his only two wins in 13 starts came in mud or slop. Looks over his head.   TOSS

2. Chunk of Gold (7-2)  Hinted at ability down at the Fair Grounds over the winter, hitting the board in the two Derby preps offered. He earned his right to run the 1^st Saturday in May and, for the most part, had a decent trip and finished mid-pack. These waters may be more friendly.   CONTENDER

3. Capo Luca (10-1)  Rides a three-race win streak into this G3 affair while beating up on rivals that would have no chance today. I applaud the connections for taking a shot here, and perhaps he can get a slice. OUTSIDER

4. McAfee (3-1)  Ships in for cagey connections after competing in some graded events in NY. He looks on the improve and has Hall of Famer Johnnie V in the boot. I question the strength of those races on the whole, but I do like his improving pattern. CONTENDER

5. Extradition (20-1)  Was beaten by Capo Luca as the favorite in his last after winning by 5 lengths in the slop. Another local looking to take down the big prize. TOSS

6. Clever Again (9-5)  This $500k American Pharaoh colt was hinting at real ability dominating foes in the Hot Springs Stake at Oaklawn. His 101 Beyer was one of the better performances of any 3yo this spring. That led him to be 5-1 in the Preakness, where he took the worst of the bumper cars in upper stretch (you’ve seen it 100 times). I gave him a big shot in that race but the fact is, he was stopping badly before the incident and was a disappointing non-factor. Jose sees fit to give it another go and Steve wouldn’t put him out there if he didn’t think he could handle it. CONTENDER

7. Bohemian Style (30-1)  A recent claim out of a 12.5k N2L that he didn’t win. NOPE

8. Curvino (12-1)  Big $$ Mike ships in to ride for solid connections. That sounds interesting, but Santa Anita is closed, and Los Al hasn’t started so he’s got nothing going on anyway. One win in 12 starts doesn’t look sexy, but he has hit the board in 7 other tries. OUTSIDER

9. Master Controller (20-1)  Broke his maiden in his last sprinting at Churchill for a high tag with a big jump up in speed figures. He may be a thorn in Clever Again’s side early but I wonder if he can stretch out against better than he’s faced. OUTSIDER

10. Mo Plex (6-1)  Another shipper coming from NY who has been very useful, earning about 10x his auction price. A G3 winner and G1 placed at 2. He won the Bay Shore sprinting in his last and looks to stretch out around 2 turns for the first time. His outside post projects a wide stalking trip. He’ll need to take a step forward again and race dynamics stack against him. OUTSIDER

SUMMARY:  

I think the best animal in this race is Clever Again. His Oaklawn races were very impressive. Frankly, I’m not sure what to make of his Preakness, but I expected a lot more. I think he gets pressed today from Master Controller and Mo Plex right from go. He’ll get no breathers and given his potential short price, he is probably a bet against. 

Chunk of Gold sits a perfect trip and should get 1^st run on the leaders. If McAffee takes another step forward, he should be right there, too. As a longshot, I’d take the streaking Capo Luca to hit the board. 

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$50 win Chunk of Gold

$25 exacta Chunk of Gold/McAfee

$10 exacta box Chunk of Gold/McAffee

$5 trifecta straight Chunk of Gold/McAfee/Capo Luca

Good Luck!