Wagering Tactics for the Blue Grass Stakes
By: Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
The race offers 200 points on a 100-50-25-15-10 scale to the first-through fifth-place finishers toward the Kentucky Derby.
That guarantees the winner a spot in the 'Run for the Roses,' makes it likely the second-place finisher gets into the field, and can even put others who run well in a prime position to land a berth in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
The 101st running of the Bluegrass, an iconic springtime feature for 3-year-olds worth $1.25 million, covers 1 1/8 miles over the dirt.
The 5-2 morning-line favorite in a field of seven intriguing Derby prospects is River Thames, who is two for three lifetime and runner-up in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in his most recent start. The colt is trained by four-time Toyota Blue Grass winner Todd Pletcher.
The Blue Grass is the 10th race on the card and has a scheduled post time of 5:52 p.m.
Let's look at the entire field from the rail out.
PP – Horse – Jockey/Trainer – ML
1 - River Thames – Irad Ortiz/Todd Pletcher – 5-2 - It took an all-out, electrifying effort from Sovereignty to hand this guy a neck loss in the Fountain of Youth. In that effort, the Pletcher runner got a good stalking trip, took the lead turning for home, and drew clear in mid-stretch but was unable to hold off the eventual winner. That defeat halted the MacLean's Music colt's mini two-race winning streak following impressive scores in his maiden and allowance races. Looks as though he's still maturing and on the improve.
2 - Render Judgment – Sheldon Russell/Ken McPeek – 20-1 - His juvenile season consisted of three of four in-the-money finishes, finishing off the board only once when fifth in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, his initial attempt in graded company. He also tried stakes competition when rounding out his two-year-old campaign with a third-place effort in the Gun Runner Stakes. Disappointed in his sophomore debut in the G2 Risen Star, where he was a well-beaten eighth, but he came through with a much-improved performance in the Virginia Derby, rallying gamely to finish second.
3 - Burnham Square – Brian Hernandez/Ian Wilkes – 4-1 - After breaking his maiden and then winning the G3 Holy Bull, where Tappan Street was second, he ran a bit inconsistent but finished with good energy in his fourth-place finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth, where he was beaten less than three lengths by Sovereignty. The Liam's Map colt obviously has raced with good company as both opponents mentioned here ran one-two in last week's G1 Florida Derby.
4 - Owen Almighty – Jose Ortiz/Brian Lynch – 3-1 - Registered an impressive front-running score in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, causing trainer Lynch to alter plans and keep the horse on the Derby trail instead of the original target of the Pay Day Mile on the Derby undercard. Never worse than second in six lifetime starts. He crossed the finish line first in four of his races but was DQ'd in one of them. Question is, can he be successful here in stretching out his speed an additional sixteenth of a mile?
5 - East Avenue – Luan Machado/Brendan Walsh – 3-1 - He was a good-looking winner when destroying the competition by eight lengths in his debut last fall, then jumped up to take the G1 Breeders' Futurity in his next start. However, since then, he has disappointed as the favorite in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (9th) and the Risen Star (10th). The latter race being his only start as a three-year-old. Luan Machado, who replaces regular rider, Tyler Gafflione, who is injured, rode the horse to victory in its maiden win. Blinkers go on for this colt.
6 - Chancer McPatrick – Flavian Prat/Chad Brown – 7-2 - Two-time G1 winner captured major victories in the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes during his juvenile season. He finished second in the G3 Tampa Bay Derby in his 3-year-old debut. Goes out for a trainer who is a three-time winner of the Blue Grass, most recently in 2024 with Sierra Leone, who finished second in last year's Kentucky Derby, then went on to win the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic before being voted top three-year-old colt of the year.
7 – Admiral Dennis – Luis Saez/Brad Cox – 20-1 - I'll give him a free pass for his last outing in the G2 Rebel Stakes, as he was off slow and suffered an extremely wide journey, but he still managed to beat half the field. He has worked out regularly and quickly in preparation for this contest but appears to be too slow on paper, as his best speed figure is well below some of the main contenders in this group.
Analysis:
East Avenue and River Thames enter as the top contenders, showing strong figures and recent form.
Chancer McPatrick is a reliable stalker with a strong finishing kick, while Render Judgment is a potential upsetter with improving speed figures.
This race looks like a battle between tactical speed and closing ability, with pace pressure likely influencing the outcome.
The pace scenario will be key in determining the race outcome.
River Thames is expected to press the pace but can rate if needed.
Chancer McPatrick will likely sit just off the leaders, ready to pounce.
A couple of lower-rated horses may gun for the lead early, setting up a moderate-to-fast pace.
East Avenue will sit mid-pack and look to launch a late run.
Overall, expect an honest pace that won't be too fast or too slow, favoring tactical speed horses while still giving late runners a fair shot.
Final Takeaway:
River Thames is in top form, has strong figures, and can adapt to different pace scenarios.
East Avenue brings class and a powerful closing kick but will need the right setup.
Chancer McPatrick is a grinder who always fires—a must-use in exotics.
Render Judgment is a live longshot who could surprise by hitting the board.
In a race without a runaway speed horse, River Thames' tactical versatility gives him the edge over the deep closers.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1 - River Thames – Tactical speed, strong form, best last-race speed figure.
2 - East Avenue – Late charge, needs a good pace setup.
3 - Chancer McPatrick – Always in the mix, reliable, but needs perfect trip.
This sets up for a potentially strong betting opportunity, with River Thames as the main play but East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick needing respect in exotics.
Wagering Strategy - $100 Mythical Bankroll
Win Bets ($35 Total)
$20 Win – 1 River Thames (5-2 odds)
$15 Win – 5 East Avenue (4-1 odds)
Why? These are still our strongest win contenders based on tactical speed and finishing power.
Exacta Bets ($30 Total)
$5 Exacta Box – 1, 5, 6 ($30 Total)
Why? We're keeping River Thames, East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick as our top three horses in any order.
Trifecta ($20 Total)
$1 Trifecta Key: 1, 5 / 1, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Why? This covers our main contenders up top, with both Render Judgment (2) and Burham Square (3) having shown strong form and could easily complete the trifecta at decent odds.
Superfecta Ticket: ($15 Total)
$0.50 Superfecta: 1, 5 / 1, 5, 6 / 1, 2, 3, 5, 6/ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Why? For the same reason above and we added Owen Almighty (4) to the fourth spot due to his potential to capitalize on race dynamics and finish in the top four, despite not being a favorite. This structure gives us a well-rounded ticket, covering both the favorites and possible longshots, increasing our chances of hitting a solid superfecta.
Good luck and as always, enjoy the race!!
