Looking for value in the Ginger Brew Stakes
By: Stuart Marc DeVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
The newly turned three-year-old fillies take the stage at Gulfstream on Saturday under forecasted ideal conditions to go one mile on the sod.
A full field of 11 with an also eligible signed up to get things started in a division that offers lucrative opportunities as the year progresses. The $165,000 listed Ginger Brew Stakes closes the day as race 11 with a 5:22 PM ET post time.
Here’s the field:
1.
Smile Po 30-1 – Has a few wins on the
synthetic, but her effort, albeit with trouble on the turf, was less than what
it will take to beat these. PASS.
2.
Love Cervere 10-1 – Top connections send
out the NY maiden winner. In that race, she had a bit of an awkward beginning
but got her feet, caught a split and started to separate late. She can
certainly progress from that effort as her Thorograph number is competitive
with these. OUTSIDE CHANCE.
3.
Fixin to Be 15-1 – Looked all out to
break maiden at KEE and then took a shot on the dirt in the Golden Rod G2 to no
avail. Luis Saez sees fit to ride, but Fixin to Be’s last two jockeys ride
others, which is not a great sign. PASS.
4.
Correto 8-1 – Was 3rd in the
Ms. Grillo G2 right before the Breeder’s
Cup Juvi Filly Turf, where she chased a fast pace that collapsed. That said,
she did hold reasonably well, only beaten 5 lengths in the end. That’s extra
credit in my book. CONTENDER.
5.
Hello Hello Hello 30-1 – Would have to
show more on speed figures and company kept to contend. Her two fastest races
were off the turf and won by open lengths. You would get paid if she won. I
would not. PASS.
6.
Disco Star 10-1 – Mark Casse’s “other”
entrant ran fast, breaking her maiden against NY Breds in October. In that race,
Dylan Davis, who rides today, piloted her on a sustained wide run after an
awkward stumble at the break. She destroyed lesser rivals and passed the eye
test for sure. Don’t sleep on her. CONTENDER.
7.
Special Aviator 12-1 – She’s done nothing
wrong for her trainer Rohan Crichton. Two starts and two victories, with one
coming in an overnight stake over the track. She seems light on speed figures
but could improve, I suppose. I need to see more. PASS.
8.
Civetta 3-1 – Leading rider Irad Ortiz
Jr. rides back after winning the Wait A While with this Brendan Walsh trained
filly. She had an absolutely perfect trip and then held off 33-1 rival Winning
Streep, whom she faces again today. If you like one, you have to like the
other. I feel this is a good favorite to go against, as I don’t like betting
perfect-trip winners coming back at short prices. If she is in the money, I am
not. TOSS.
9.
Forward Deployed 15-1 – This Chad
Brown runner for Flanagan Racing was dismissed at 12-1 when she broke her
maiden off the layoff last month. She’s back on short rest but seemed to have
more in the tank that day, and it would surprise no one that a Chad Brown
runner won a stake off a maiden win 2nd out, would it? I suspect she
will be lower than the morning line of 15-1. Juicy. CONTENDER.
10.Nitrogen 5-2 – Mark
Casse’s “main entrant” closed strongly into the fast pace of the Breeder’s Cup
Juvi Fillies Turf grabbing the show dough. She saved ground from the inside and
caught tired foes, but she was only beaten 2.5 lengths by the monster Lake
Victoria. She has the credentials to be favored with 2 G1 placing. I also find
it interesting that Jose Ortiz shows up in town for this. He is destroying the
Fair Ground jockey colony and sees fit to visit his brother for the weekend and
ride here. CONTENDER.
11.Winning Streep 10-1 –
Lost a neck to the morning line second choice in last, Civetta. Ran a good race
at a big price. I get the feeling that last time was the time. TOSS.
12.Good Long Cry 8-1 –
Johnnie V picks up the mount for George Weaver as Irad sticks with Civetta.
This gal seems to be improving as she seems to have learned to rate and finish.
Early in her six-start career, Good Long Cry seemed headstrong, but now she
waits and finishes. I wish she had a better post, but previously, she has
performed well from the outside. Her speed figures are improving as well. CONTENDER.
Summary
In this bulky field, I am not willing to take the favorites in Nitrogen and Civetta. While they both fit on speed figures and connections, they both exit very favorable trips. Why do they have to get that again today?
That said, I’d like to take Good Long Cry as a top choice, but she’s marooned in the outside box. I can make a case for Forward Deployed on connections and potential upside.
Disco Star beat up on much lesser and is doing a few new things such as stretching out and running in open stakes company.
The same things can be said for Love Cervere.
Finally, Correto has the class, was up against it last time, and may
just get the trip.
The Bet (Based on $100)
Since I feel this is a wide-open race and I don’t care for the shorter-priced horses, I will do some exacta boxes hoping to catch some longshots.
I will key on both the 4 & 12
$6 exacta box 4, 12, 9 = 36
$5 exacta box 4,12, 6 = 30
$4 exacta part wheel 4,12 with 4, 6, 9, 12 = 24
Good luck!
