Handicaper's Corner: White Abarrio vs. the rest in 2024 Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3)

 White Abarrio vs. the rest in Mr. Prospector (G3)

 By: Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power

Saturday’s Grade 3 seven-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream Park lured a dozen contenders ages three and older.

The seven-furlong contest is named for the brilliant yet fragile Mr. Prospector, who set two track records, including six furlongs in 1:07 4/5 at Gulfstream, only two-fifths of a second off the American record.

 

Despite an abbreviated racing career of 14 starts, Mr. Prospector became a cornerstone of modern breeding worldwide. His bloodlines are found in multiple instances in each contender of this year’s race named in his honor.

Fast forward to Saturday’s event, the Mr. Prospector Stakes is featured as race 10 on an 11-race card, with a 4:51 PM ET post time.

Let’s review the most likely suspects to hit the board.

10. White Abarrio (3-5) stands head and withers above this herd as the only Grade 1 winner in the field. After a brief freshening, the Saffie Joseph, Jr. trainee made short work of Allowance sprinters here, destroying the field by ten lengths. Although the pretty gray horse uses the Mr. Prospector as a prep for the Pegasus International, this is his race to lose. Win Contender.

A winner of five of his six starts in Chile, 6. Mufasa (CHI) (9-2) needed a start under his girth in his U.S. debut. Once he got his feet under him, the Ignacio Correas IV trainee dominated Allowance class at Colonial Dows and the Vosburgh (G3) at Aqueduct by a combined eight lengths. Mufasa wasn’t ready to face the best in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He couldn’t gain his regular pace pressing position and was rank, ultimately finishing a dozen lengths behind Full Serrano (ARG). Mufasa posted two sharp works at Gulfstream, including a pre-race 5-furlong bullet. Mufasa recorded a 104 Brisnet late-pace figure in the Vosburgh, and a return to that form makes him a serious threat if White Abarrio stubs a hoof. Contender.

A $500,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase, 9. Illuminare (10-1) has been brought along conservatively by Todd Pletcher. The 3-year-old son of City of Light easily captured three of four starts by a combined 8 3/4 lengths. His only loss was a fourth-place finish as the beaten favorite in the 7-furlong Harrods Creek Stakes at Churchill after a two-month layoff. Illuminare has been firing bullets at four and five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs like a machine gun, and his last two breezes were in tandem with Gordian Knot. Illuminare received a gaudy 103 Brisnet rating in his last start, and his 104 late-pace figure is a point lower than the field’s highest set by White Abarrio. He’s a pace presser/setter and may keep Super Chow company on the lead. Exotics.

1. Playmea Tune (15-1) hopes to transfer his form to dirt and add a half-furlong. He’s a player in the allowance/Grade 3 category at Woodbine and has decent Brisnet speed ratings in the 90’s. Jose Carroll gave Playmea Tune a second-to-last 4-furlong bullet breeze in 47.75 at Palm Meadows. Breaking from the rail, Playmea Tune may tailgate the early pace and be in the exotics mix.

Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez pair up with 4. Gordian Knot (15-1), who is making his first start for the barn. According to Race Lens, over the last five years, Pletcher has had a 50% win and 75% in the money rating, with dirt sprinters making their first start for the barn after the trainer switch. Since 2020, four horses have fit the profile, and all four finished in the superfecta, with three at Gulfstream. Gordian Knot is a six-time stakes winner against lesser company at PARX, Presque Isle Downs, and placed in stakes at Laurel and Delaware Park. His sole foray to Gulfstream resulted in a sixth-place finish, but it was his first start as a 3-year-old and Gordian Knot reeled off three straight after that. Gordian Knot has been keeping company with Illuminare in the mornings and out-worked that one on December 13. The move into graded company is suspect, but this large, long-striding gelding is worth a look to hit the lower exotics as a live longshot.  

3. Super Chow (20-1) is a confirmed pacesetter who has hit the board in 18 of 22 lifetime starts. He loves Gulfstream and has finished in the money in all six attempts here. The Jorge Delgado trainee also hit the board in all four tries at seven furlongs. The two-time Grade 3 winner hopes to break through after a trio of fourth-place finishes in lesser stakes. His late-pace figures are on the low side, but if David Egan can slow the pace, they have a shot to hold on for a check. Longshot exotics.

Analysis

Pacesetters and pressers won six of the last ten editions of the Mr. Prospector, while mid-pack runners and closers won twice each.

Super Chow is a confirmed pacesetter. Illuminare, Mufasa and Little Vic may press or contend the pace with Playmea Tune tailgating. White Abarrio has tactical speed and can stay out of trouble on the outside.

Selections

10. White Abarrio (3-5)

6. Mufasa (CHI) (9-2)

9. Illuminare (10-1)

4. Gordian Knot (15-1)

Handicapper's Corner: Finding Value in the 2024 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

 Finding Value in the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2)

By:  John Caro, ThoroFan Handicapper

South Florida and a cool weather day for this Pegasus prep race, with nine going 1 1/8 miles on the lawn. 

Should be a lot of fun, and there might be some real value in the betting with multiple entries from Saffie Joseph, Jr. and Todd Pletcher. 

Featured as race 10 of 11, post time is 4:52 PM ET.  Let's review the field.

#1 Cash Equity – Joseph/Zayas - He's been trying graded company on the Kentucky circuit in his last three outings without success. Was a failed favorite in the River City at Churchill last out. Shows declining form has not had a trip on this lawn, but changes jockeys to a 19% turf winning jockey. Underneath play.

#2 Grand Sonata  - Pletcher/Gaffalione  - Has raced at the highest levels and had some success, winning over $2M lifetime. He's won two of three at Gulfstream but only one at the distance. The public hasn't put a lot of money into him at the betting windows, but still he fits in this field. Gaffalione is quite adept at putting his mounts in the right place to be ITM. The connections are right, the odds are right and I expect he'll be in the top three.

#3 Saratoga Flash  - Joseph/Husbands  - He's struggled against graded/stakes company, but he has done well at Gulfstream with two wins and three seconds out of seven races; however, never won at the distance. They might be the rabbit for this race. Bottom of trifectas or superfectas.

#4 Major Dude – Pletcher/Ortiz, I Jr. – The connections are telling. This stalker midpack closer struggled in the Four Star Dave when stuck in traffic but has won two of his last three and does well at Gulfstream. He's been off since early October and had some nice works coming into this race with two bullets under his belt. Ortiz is on fire and I expect that to remain the same for the meet. This is my top pick, and at 5-1 he is a bargain.

#5 Win for the Money  - Casse/Davis  - This guy won the Woodbine Mile handily and  might have pushed the pace too hard in the BC Mile, finishing last of ten. He shows good form in his races prior to the last, so we'll scratch his last effort. Dylan Davis gets the mount and is coming off a great season up North. The bullet work on December 4^th on the turf is impressive, and he likes Gulfstream. I expect Casse has him ready. My only concern is he's a miler and doesn't go the distance. Bottom of exotics.

#6 Lorenz – Joseph/Van Dyke – When we look through the PPs he stands out as not having enough class. His last two wins with Van Dyke up were for $75K. Both were come from behind late closing wins. That being said, he really likes to be ITM in his last seven races. A conundrum? Or is he a horse moving up with talent? The form is there, Van Dyke is a patient jockey and I'd like to see Lorenz get a piece. Longshot to play in the mix.

#7 Siege of Boston  - Toner/Ruiz – The public loves to throw money at this guy without a lot of winnings. He's had some nice works coming into the race, and Toner is a fine grass trainer but his record says he won't finish well. Rosario put him on the lead last time out in the Knickerbocker, but he got tired in the lane and finished fifth. Ruiz is familiar with Boston, but does the horse have the turn of foot to get there? He's a toss for me.

#8 Fort Washington –McGaughey/Velasquez  - Always liked this horse at the lower levels. The connections are super, steady works at Payson Park. Was fourth by two in the Knickerbocker. Third in the Arty Schiller and had a big win in the Monmouth Stakes at 35-1. As has been seen many times before, Johnny V can show up and punish others. I see him as a worthy longshot ITM.

#9 Emmanuel – Maker/Castellano  - Since he's moved to Maker's barn he has lost some form against graded company. In his favor, he has won two for two at Gulfstream under Pletcher, and he has seen several these other horses in his travels. I just don't have confidence in him, given his recent form. Toss.

Handigambling…you folks pick the money you want to wager

Trifecta – 4 with 2, 6, 8 with All

Exacta Box – 2, 4, 6, 8      Or All with 6 & 8 and a WS bet on 6 & 8

WPS on 6 

Dutch WPS on 8 against the 6

Handicapper's Corner: Game on in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2)

Game on in the Los Alamitos Futurity 

By Rowan Ward, Blinkers-Off

On Saturday, West Coast juveniles take the spotlight in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). The 1 1/16-mile race offers a purse of $200,000 as well as 10-5-3-2-1 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to its top five qualifying finishers. Though the race drew a field of only five, unlike in the last few years, all of the runners are eligible for Kentucky Derby points since Bob Baffert can enter horses in the Run for the Roses again.

This race is the successor to the Hollywood Futurity, which was moved to Los Alamitos after Hollywood Park closed. Though only one horse has won both this race and the Kentucky Derby, 1997 winner Real Quiet, six starters in this race have gone on to win the Run for the Roses. However, that hasn’t happened since 2005 when Giacomo, who had finished second at Hollywood the year before, blew up the Kentucky Derby tote.

However, that does not mean recent winners of this race haven’t shined in other major races. Shared Belief (2013) emerged as one of the best horses in his class at ages two, three, and four. Into Mischief (2007), Pioneerof the Nile (2008), and Violence (2012) have gone on to be important stallions. And 2022 winner, Practical Move, went on to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) the following year.

Carded as Race 8 of 9, post time for the Los Alamitos Futurity is 3:54 PM, PT

The horse to beat in the 2024 Los Alamitos Futurity is Gaming. Most recently second behind Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he is the leader of the three-strong Bob Baffert brigade in this race. Though he is drawn on the fence, it is only a field of five, and he won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) from the two-hole in a field of seven this summer. His running style is excellent for this race and field size as well: he has sharp yet tactical speed, giving him the options to either wire the field or stalk and pounce if stablemates Getaway Car or Mellencamp really punch down the accelerator.

The horse with the most upside to topple the heavy favorite is Journalism, a lightly-raced runner for Michael McCarthy. He has just two starts and was defeated by a pair, including Mellencamp on debut, but that was a six-furlong sprint at Santa Anita. He stretched to a two-turn mile at Del Mar for his second start, rallied from midfield, and won by 2 ½ lengths over fellow Los Alamitos Futurity entrant Rank. He’ll need to stay as close as possible given the five-horse field size or hope that the Baffert Brigade gets locked into some kind of pace battle. But, the fact that he woke up trying two turns for the first time is a positive, and that tracks nicely with the fact that he is by Curlin out of the graded-quality two-turn dirt mare Mopotism, a daughter of Uncle Mo.

Getaway Car is the only other winner in the field. He has tables to turn on Gaming, who beat him head-to-head in both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Del Mar Futurity. He also has yet to prove that he can win a race without making the top from the start. However, without Citizen Bull in the mix and drawn outside of the other two Baffert trainees, Getaway Car may just bounce out to the lead under Juan Hernandez and play a game of catch-me-if-you-can. If that happens, especially if speed is playing well on Saturday, there is hope for Getaway Car to spring the minor upset.

Selections:

#1 Gaming (2-5)

#5 Journalism (6-1)

#3 Getaway Car (3-1)

Handicapper's Corner: It’s Post Time for the 2024 Cigar Mile (GII)

It's Post Time for the 2024 Cigar Mile

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan

Anyone who saw Cigar run would remember it and tear up retelling the story of the race. He won 16 races straight until he was defeated in the Pacific Classic in 1996 by Dare and Go. He won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1995 and the NYRA Mile in 1994, which now carries his name. 

 

 

The Cigar Mile is a grade two event of handicap weight conditions. Eleven horses will run the mile on the dirt for a purse of $500,000. The weather at Aqueduct will be beautiful, with the temperature around 40 degrees at the 3:35 Post Time. 

Let’s look at the field.

 

1.Book’em Danno (Bucchero) is a seasoned 7-furlong runner winning the Woody Stephens (GI) in June at Saratoga. Working bullets. In the money for both tries at Aqueduct. Keeps Irad Ortiz. Drops weight off the last 8 races. One of three 3-year-olds taking on older horses. Should be strategically placed for a stretch run. Mile distance concern.

2.Nelson Avenue (Into Mischief) One of four challenging for the lead. Stepping up to grade two company. Retains hot NY-based jockey Dylan Davis. Likes mile distance. Others faster.

3. Repo Rocks (Tapiture) Another speedster. Working bullets. Hasn’t regained his 2023 form. Mile distance a plus.

4. Vinsanity (Tapiture) Another 3-year-old getting weight advantage; twelve pounds under Mullikin and Post Time. Slower than most of the field. Gets a new jockey for a better fit.

5. Mullikin (Violence) can run on the lead but closed for third in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Keeps top jockey, Flavien Prat. Owns the top speed figure. High weight at 124 may be a problem. One-for-one at Aqueduct. May like it shorter.

6.Law Professor (Constitution) Won prep going long at Aqueduct. May like the early pace for position, but should be doing his best work late. Performed better at longer distances. Asking a lot.

7. Locked (Gun Runner) Second start as a 3-year-old. Coming off an eleven-month rest after placing third in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Fierceness and Muth. Retains Johnny Velazquez. Hard to know how he will perform in this race. Worth a play.

8. Pipeline (Speightstown) Working bullets. Gets a new jockey. Ran a 7-furlong race once, finishing fourth in the Forego (GI) at Saratoga in 2023. Distance OK. If the early pace is very fast, he may be moving down the lane for a piece.

9. Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) Woking bullets. Hasn’t won since February. Top money winner at $12.9 million. Knows how to win the big races. Fast enough to be competitive. Better at longer distances. Which Senor B will show up?

10. Coastal Mission (Great Notion) Solid closer who likes this distance. Speed figures are questionable. He’s at the right level with his regular jockey up. He won the Forty Niner (G3) at Aqueduct by a length and gave Millikin a scare in  July at Aqueduct in 7-furlong race. Should be competitive.

11. Post Time (Frosted) Three wins at 7 furlongs out of 4 tries, but he’s better at a mile and keeps his regular jockey. Carries the high weight for the Cigar Mile. He’s won and placed at Aqueduct and should be running late.

Analysis

This a very tough race to Handicap. Four horses will likely contest the pace but will not win. The fast pace will favor a closer. The 3-year-olds will be disadvantaged, although one could do well. Senor Buscador has a great resume but needs to show better recent form. That leaves three with a greater chance to win---Mullikin, Coastal Mission and Post Time.

Here is how I think they will finish:

11. Post Time  (7-2)

5.   Mullikin (3-1)

10. Coastal Mission (12-1)

7.   Locked (9-2)

Handigamble:

$20 to win and place on Post Time #11--  $40

$2 Exacta Box:  #5,#10, #11----- $12

$2 Trifecta Box:  # 5,#7, #10, #11  ---$48