Penn Derby Drama: Can Baeza Shed the Bridesmaid Tag?
By Robert Marks (@theyreinthegate)
We have the Grade 1 Penn Derby for 3-year-olds with a $1,000,000 purse this Saturday at Parx Racing.
As pointed out by Ed Derosa on X (@EJXD2), this year’s race attracted a grand total of 0 Grade 1 winners, only 1 Grade 2 winner (Magnitude) and 2 Grade 3 Winners (Gosger & Mo Plex).
The good news is that we have a competitive field that should make for good betting opportunities.
Here is who we like:
Baeza (2-1) Trained by John Shirrifes with Hector Berrios the Jockey, Baeza ran 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes behind Sovereignty and Journalism and 2nd in the Jim Dandy Stakes. Those races featured the 3-year-old superstar Sovereignty or Journalism; this race does not. Will the Bridesmaid finally step up and win. Pace-wise, it looks like the race sets up nicely for Baeza, with enough speed up front for him to close in. After a busy Spring campaign, he comes into this race off a 56-day layoff and a sharp workout last week at 6 furlongs. The Distance will be no problem, as Baeza has gone 1 1/8 miles or longer in his last four races. If you think he steps up, this is the race.
Gosger (4-1), trained by Brendon Walsh with Luis Saez, is lightly raced but has been in the money all five times, with two wins and three place showings. Like Baeza, he likes to close into a fast pace. Not sure he is as fast as Baeza, but he’s well rested and comes off a bullet workout last week. If he stays anywhere near his 4-1 morning line, there is plenty of value here, and I would jump on him in your exotics. Speed figures show he is just as fast as Baeza so why not take him at double the morning line value over Baeza.
Goal Oriented (5-2). This Baffert-trained horse, with Irad Ortiz Jr. on board, is lightly raced, having started only 4 times, but 2 of those starts have been Grade 1 races: the Preakness (4th place) and the Haskell (3rd place, behind Journalism and Gosger). He’s plenty rested (2 months) and would appear to be ready to take a step up. Gets a Jockey switch from Flavien Prat to the always dangerous Irad Ortiz Jr.
Magnitude (6-1) This Steve Asmussen trainee has plenty of experience, having run 9 times with 4 wins, with last race a well back 2nd to Sovereignty in the Travers. He will be part of the early speed and will appreciate the cut back from the 1 1/4 mile Travers to this race at 1 1/8 miles. He has had injuries and been inconsistent, but speed is always dangerous and figures to be part of the exotics if her runs to his best prior speed figure.
Analysis
This will be an interesting race pace-wise. Looks to be pretty fast with good early pace.
We think front-runners Big Truzz (10-1) and So Sandy (15-1) lead the pace with Magnitude right behind them early.
From there, it’s a stretch duel between the closers Goal Oriented, Gosger and Baeza.
We hope to hit a Trifecta Boxing our 4 highlighted horses. We also think a win bet on Gosger at 3-1 or higher odds is good value.
As always, watch the Horses in the Paddock and the odds as Post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.
Bets: $100 Budget
$50-win Gosger
$2Trifecta Box: Gosger, Baeza, Goal Oriented, Magnitude (total bet $48)
$2 Longshot pick: Big Truzz (10-1)
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