Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Blue Grass Stakes (G1)

 

Bid Ado to the Others

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan Board Member

Keeneland Racecourse epitomizes racing’s culture. The track buts against breeding farms, including Calumet Farms, which currently holds the record for most Blue Grass Stakes wins with six.

The Paddock centers racing, where fans can hang on the railings as horses prepare for the next race. The building was modernized with multiple floors from which to view the racetrack and the Paddock. You can tell it is one of my favorite racetracks to attend, especially on Blue Grass Weekend.

The Blue Grass Stakes first ran in 1911, with a 10-year break between 1927 and 1936. It has been carded since then. Between 2007 and 2014, the main track was converted to an all-weather track but returned to its original dirt surface in 2015 and remains that way.

Nine 3-year-olds are entered this year to run nine furlongs for a share of the $1,250,000 purse. The race offers two hundred Derby Qualifying points (100-50-25-15-10). Unfortunately, the weatherman forecasts an 80% change of rain, some of which may fall around post time.

Here is the field: 

1.   Talkin (Good Magic) is the only entrant with Grade One experience, finishing second to Napoleon Solo in the 2025 Champagne Stakes. He worked a bullet for this race and retains his jockey, Rosario, for the race. He is not the fastest horse in the race, but shows a strategic running style needed to win.

2.   Class President (Uncle Mo) Scratched.

3.   Great White (Volatile) Comes in from Turfway Park to try graded stakes for the first time. Should be in mid-pack down the backside, hoping for enough gas in the tank to slide into the exotics. Working nicely. He has 20 Derby Qualifying Points but needs to sweeten that number to get in the derby.

4.   Regan’s Honor (Honor A.P.) He generated the highest Beyer figure in last win in an allowance race at the Fair Grounds. He, too will be trying to get the lead out of the gate. He adds eight pounds over his last race. With no Qualifying Points, he must be in the top two finishers for an invitation to the Derby.

5.   Creole Chrome (Volatile) He is a shipper from Fair Grounds that has been working at Keeneland. He gets a new jockey, Gaffalione for trainer Joe Sharp. Distance may be his Waterloo. He should be in the front as long as he can last.

6.   Further Ado (Gun Runner) Keeps his last race jockey, Irad Ortiz, where he finished ¾ length behind the winner, Puma, who finished a close second to Commandment in the Florida Derby. With zero Qualifying Points, he needs a first or second-place finish in the Blue Grass to get in the Derby. Working a bullet suggests he is ready.

7.   Ocelli (Connect) Scratched.

8.   Moonstrocity (Tiz the Law) is a maiden shipping in from Gulfstream Park. Not likely fast enough to secure a win in this race. Working a bullet for trainer, Antonucci. Based on his wet numbers, he may like a wet track, though he has never raced on one. A scary one on which to take a wagering chance. Might surprise.

9.   Ottinho (Quality Road) Likes to run on the front, but his draw will compromise his chances in this race. A return to jockey Pratt for trainer Chad Brown may help, but will it be enough.

Analysis

The pending bad weather makes predicting a winner difficult. None has shown they can handle the wet going. Two horses have wet numbers over 400: Further Ado (438), and Moonstrocity (440). Of course, if rain does not materialize, these numbers mean nothing. Further Ado with Ortiz up coming off the pace should handle a wet or dry track, and Talkin should be in the mix.

How will they finish?

6. Further Ado (8-5)

4. Reagan’s Honor(5-2)

1. Talkin (10-1)

8. Moonstrocity (30-1)

 

Handigamble ($100)

$20 win on Further Ado

40 place on Further Ado

$5 Exacta Box: Further Ado (#6), Reagan’s Honor (#4) and

Talkin (#1)

 $10 win on Moonstrocity #8

 

Good Luck but keep the day job!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Arkansas Derby (G1)

 Value, Pace and a Live Longshot in the Arkansas Derby

By: RobertMarks, (@theyreinthegate)

 

We have a Grade 1 big Derby prep at Oaklawn Park this Saturday, the always fun Arkansas Derby, on the dirt at 1 & 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds with a $1,500,000 purse. There are plenty of Derby Qualifying Points to be won, with 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points for the 1-5 finishers on the road to the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Featured as race 13, post time for the Arkansas Derby is 6"48 PM CT.  

Here is who we like:

 Renegade (3-2) Trained by Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz Jr., the Jockey, this colt comes off a win at Tampa Bay last month, dueling Wayne’s Law down the stretch. This colt has placed in all 4 starts, 2 as a 2-year-old and 2 this year. He fits the Arkansas Derby historical profile of short odds horses winning with top connections.  This horse has tactical speed and can sit or press the pace. Your most likely winner.

   Silent Tactic (5-2) trained by Mark Casse with Cristian Torres aboard comes off a 2^nd place finish at this track at the Rebel Stakes 3 weeks ago.  Knows the track well, having won in February in the Southwest Stakes and a 2^nd place finish in January in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Silent Tactic has methodically improved with every start. Supremely bred too, by Tapit out of Magical Sign (Gun Runner). The jockey knows the horse and knows the track well, and has been red hot the last week, winning at a 30% clip.  Silent Tactic is improving at the right time, and his strong closing style suits a contested pace. If he gets the pace to close into, this horse will be in the money.  

Taptastic (20-1). This Steve Asmussen-trained horse with Erik Asmussen on board has 1 start, finishing first in his first time out at 1 mile in a Maiden race at Oaklawn Park. This gray/road beauty has what looks like a nice late stalking style kick, winning that way up the rail in his Maiden win. Although he is by Tapit with Curlin as the damsire, it is asking a lot to win at 1 1/8-mile in his second start, but don’t ignore him at a big price.

This will be an interesting race pace-wise. We think front-runners Redland Rebels and Blackout Time lead the pace with early speed and a bunch of horses right behind, setting up the race for our 3 picks, all of whom have a stalking closing style.  

We will hope to hit a Trifecta, and then an Exacta, boxing our 3 highlighted horses with a value win bet on Taptaskic. As always, watch the horses in the paddock and the odds as post time approaches and then make final selections accordingly.

Bets: $100 dollar Budget

$5 Trifecta Box: Taptastic, Silent Tactic, Renegade (total bet $30)

$10 Exacta Box: Taptastic, Silent Tactic, Renegade (total bet $60)

$10 Win Bet: Taptastic (Total bet: $10)

 

   

Handicapper's Corner: 2026 Louisiana Derby (G2)

 

Louisiana Derby Value Plays

By:  MaryJo Moncheski, ThoroFan Handicapper

 

Saturday, the $1,000,000 Twinspires.com Grade 2 Louisiana Derby kicks off at 1 3/16th miles with a nine-horse field with a 5:42 PM CT post time.

There are many viable options to choose from, including Cherie DeVaux, Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Brad Cox, and more. Let’s review the best bets and betting strategy. 

None of today’s entries have raced at this distance yet, so it really is anyone’s race. With two Cherie DeVaux options, I am going with #5 Golden Tempo (7-2) as my top pick.

Brad Cox has two horses coming off Maiden wins. I am going to take #8 Easterly (6-1) for my second choice. Most people will probably put Baffert’s Blacksmith or Brown’s Emerging Market on top, but they seem too obvious and won’t go off at a price. Therefore, #3 Chip Honcho (3-1) and #4 Universe (12-1). 

TOP PAIR:

#5 Golden Tempo & #8 Easterly

I love Golden Tempo for many reasons. There are several early pacesetters in this race with #7 Blacksmith (6-1) and #8 Easterly (6-1).

Other potential pace setters could be #9 Emerging Market (6-1) and #1 Pavlovian (6-1).

Golden Tempo struggled in the Risen Star to find a clear path, leading to him going four wide. He couldn’t get there on time. This horse can cover a lot of ground quickly. He also fits my rested criteria. Consistently increased Beyer speed, and he keeps DeVaux’s go-to jock, Jose Ortiz. Golden Tempo is sure to be the amazing closer we know.

#8 Easterly is my choice of the Brad Cox horses. He has speed, is rested, and has good distance. The only downside is he’s moving up significantly in class, which could hinder a win, but still keep him in the money. 

BOTTOM PAIR:

#3 Chip Honcho & #4 Universe 

#3 Chip Honcho could surprise and take the win with Jockey Luis Saez onboard for Trainer Steve Asmussen. He placed second in the Risen Star by a half-length, so he has the speed and distance. Can he get there in time? I think he will go to the front with either Blacksmith or Emerging Market. I just have a theory about Steve Asmussen: he's had more Allowance Claiming and Maiden winners than Stakes winners over the last year or so, which makes my trust in Chip Honcho falter. I am glad Saez remains on him, as I think he has the best chance for keeping Chip Honcho on the lead to finish in the money.

Lastly, my picks round out with #4 Universe. My whole objective is to find prices. Universe can add significant value to this superfecta. He finished 4th in the Risen Star; however, he kept gaining positions. His last two starts were from the inside rail, which alone could be a reason to toss them out.

Universe placed 3rd in the G1 Champaign against Napoleon Solo, jumping from a 68 Beyer in his Maiden to an 83. Wavering in the Smarty Jones, he came back to speed form in the Risen Star. McPeek putting Brian Hernandez, Jr. aboard is enough for me to include him in my Super. 

$10 Win: 5 Golden Tempo

$2 Exacta box: 5-8

.50 Trifecta box: 5-8-3

.10 Superfecta box: 5-8-3-4

Total Bet: $19.40