4 Fillies to watch in the Royal Heroine Stakes
By: Robert Marks, Twitter/X: (@theyreinthegate)
As we anticipate the
Kentucky Derby to be run one week from this Saturday, fillies, and mares will
take center stage at Santa Anita Park this Saturday, 4/27/24, in the Grade 3
$100,000 Royal Heroine stakes. This one-mile turf event boasts a rich history,
and this year’s event is wide open.
Here is a look at the
9-horse field.
Here are the horses we
will be focusing on:
Stay and Scam (5-2)
for Trainer Doug O’Neill will likely go off as the favorite. This 4-year-old
filly will be your likely pacesetter. A sprinter type, she has only gone two
turns once, and this is a 2-turn race. In her last race, the two-turn Wilshire
stakes, she finished 2nd, despite having a 2 ½ lead going down the stretch
before being caught by the winner-Nadette. Prior to that one-mile race, she won
5 of 10 spring races. Mario Gutierrez is the Jockey. O’Neill is a master at improving his horses,
and we believe this 4-year-old and Gutierrez will improve over the last race
now that she has a one-mile race under her belt.
Justique (10-1)
will be piloted by Hall of Famer Jockey Mike Smith. Trained by John Shirreffs,
this 4-year-old Filly will be a very tempting pick if she remains anywhere near
her 10-1 morning line odds. She is battle-tested with seven graded stakes races
out of her 12 starts. We love that foundation, and having Mike Smith on top to
pilot her is always a plus. out of 3 starts, winning all three at Gulfstream
Park, including the Holy Bull Stakes. She has impressive speed figures, topping
out over 100 twice as Santa Anita in the Lady of Shamrock Stakes and Autumn
Miss Stakes. She is coming off a nice workout. We think her last race, a poor
performance in the Buena Vista Stakes, is a throw out and will trust Smith to
be finishing late with Justique.
Uncorked (3-1) is
the Wildcard here. This 5-year-old mare has not raced since November of last
year at Aqueduct, finishing 3rd in the Forever Young Stakes. Phil D’Amato took
over as Trainer since that race and has had to have the Mare resting in his
barn for the last five months as this Australian Bred horse was sick. Now she’s
rested, and D’Amato seems confident. She also gets Frankie Dettori on board for
the 1st time. Always hard to figure out how a horse will perform coming off a
long layoff, but she has had seven timed workouts in the last two months, all
with good results. We will watch the tote board and hope her odds float a bit
upward.
Looking at others you
might want to look at Miss Lizzy (6-1), the other Doug O’Neill Trainee
in this field. She was 2nd last time out in the Mizdirection Stakes at Santa
Anita Stakes. She will be stretching out to a mile and is sired by Classic
Empire, father of many dirt and sprint winners. Worth putting into your Trifecta
and Superfecta box selections.
Analysis &
Handigambling
If you believe that Stay
and Scam can figure out how to pace herself a bit better, she is your winner.
If not, the horse is a toss. For us, we will believe in Stay and Scan and think
Her Jock, Guitierrez puts her in position for a win We will go with a straight
win bet and hope we hit the Tri with Justique at 10-1 or higher in the mix.
Bets: $100 dollar Budget
$50-win Stay and Scam
$2Trifecta Box: Stay and
Scam, Justique, Uncorked (total bet $48)
$2 place: Justique
