Turf Routers line up in Man O'War Stakes
By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper
Nine horses
will travel a mile and 3/8ths over Aqueduct’s turf course this Saturday in
search of Grade 2 glory and the winner’s share of the $400k purse.
The Man o’
War Stakes has always been an early season target for the distance turf runners,
and this year’s renewal looks very interesting.
There is rain
forecasted for the days leading up to the weekend, but clear skies are expected
on race day. Non-firm turf is anticipated.
Here's the
field: Horse(Trainer/Jockey/M-L)
1. Ohana
Honor (C. McGaughey/K. Caramouche/6-1)
It looks like Shug has this 4yo on the improve. As a 3yo, this colt hinted
at ability but couldn’t seem to string too many races together. Now, he is on
the 3rd race of his form cycle and coming of a facile Keeneland N2X front
running score. One might expect him to go for the lead again,
breaking from the rail with an aggressive rider in Kendrick Caramouche. He
doesn’t need the lead to win, so I assume his jock will “play the break” and
see what happens to his outside (other speed is signed on). He will need
another move forward to compete.
2. Kertez
(GB) (C. Clement/J. Rosario/5-1)
Kertez (GB) is a 6yo gelding who
made his Stateside debut winning the G2 Pan American on the Florida Derby
undercard for trainer Christophe Clement. He out-finished two of his foes today
(Tawny Port & Harry Hood) in a blanket finish. Given the fact he is 6 years
old and coming from the legendary Andre Fabre yard, I’m not so sure he has any
improvement to give us. He is a solid performer and will win some races in the
US. Not sure it will be today.
3. So
High (GB) (N. Chatterpaul/R.R. Maragh/20-1) A confirmed front runner who just cleared his
N1X condition off the layoff in his 29th race. His 20-1 morning line
seems like an underlay to me, especially with other speed signed on. PASS
4. Harry
Hood (M. Hennig/15-1) Another
improving 4yo who may be putting it together. He’s been racing regularly over
the winter, with this being his 5th start in 2024. I get the feeling
that “last time was the time” for him when he lost the bob to Kertez at 14-1 in
the Pan American. Perhaps he makes another needed step forward today. You’ll
get paid if he does, but the waters are a bit deeper here.
5. Tawny
Port (C. Clement/I. Ortiz Jr./6-1)
Clement’s other entry keeps leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for
another swing. This runner always seems to try hard and would be fun to own. He
is two necks away from two G2 scores at Gulfstream this winter, the latter a 3rd
against a few foes today. Perhaps his Eclipse Award-winning jock can work some
magic, but my feeling is he will be overbet because Irad is ALWAYS overbet in NY.
6. Greek
Order (W. Mott/J. Lezcano/15-1)
The first question one might ask about him is, what the heck is he doing
in this race after running a mediocre 6th as the favorite in a
Keeneland N2X event? It is a valid question. After all, he was competitive in
minor handicaps across the pond but not any Group/Graded events like many of
his competitors. But…he is trained by a Hall of Famer in Bill Mott, who doesn’t
enter horses to fill races. He is a Juddmonte homebred, a literal breeding
juggernaut. He is also a 4yo, so there may be some upside to his form. An
intriguing longshot.
7. Rocket
and Roll (N. Chatterpaul/G. Kocakaya/50-1) Recently
claimed for 20k with an ok State-bred allowance turf try five races back. Pass
8. Silver
Knott (GB) (C. Appleby/F. Prat/3-1)
“The other Appleby.” Charlie
Appleby, who owned graded turf stakes in the US a few years back, has now sent
a string here for the summer. It must be expensive for the Sheiks to keep
shipping, right? At any rate, this 4yo has run some bangers Stateside, placing
in some Grade 1s dating back to the ’22 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. He is
improving. He had a sneaky good effort to end his 3yo year where he was run
down by Program Trading and Webslinger, the 1st and 3rd
place finishers in the Turf Classic last week just before the Derby. Silver
Knott (GB) came back to dominate the G2 Elkhorn last month, beating his favored
stablemate Bold Act and a solid G2 runner in Missed the Cut. He definitely
classes up here and has a big shot.
9. Nations
Pride (C. Appleby/L. Dettori/8-5)
“The main Appleby” will go
heavily favored here. He has a stellar resume, winning Grade/Group 1 races in
Canada, Germany, and the USA, including one over this strip. He got beat by ¾
in the Dubai Turf, which is possibly the best turf race in the world (sorry,
Breeder’s Cup). He is faster on Beyers with two triple 100+ numbers. He is
faster on TimeformUS as well as Thorograph numbers. One last thing: Frankie
Dettori is in the boot. On paper, he is a cinch. But, as handicappers, we need
to look for some weaknesses. He is off a layoff (he’s won before off layoffs).
This is most likely a prep for The Manhattan, a $ 1 million race on the Belmont
Stakes undercard, so he may not be 100%. He projects to get a wide trip
breaking on the outside in a 3-turn race. His class most likely overcomes this.
Are you willing to take 3/5 on him??
Analysis
This race
clearly goes through Charlie Appleby. Nations Pride (IRE) looks like the
goods even with some things against him. Silver Knott (GB) is on the
improve for sure, and no one would be surprised if he put together a solid
campaign.
The three
horses coming out of the Pan American were separated by a neck. If I like one,
I must like the others although I’d take Harry Hood having more upside
because he is a 4yo. The other two most likely won’t get much better.
Ohana
Honor could catch a
flyer from the inside or sit just behind the longshot speeds and get 1st
run on the Appleby runners but they won’t be far behind him and most likely
will have better kicks in the stretch.
Mott’s horse
is interesting. I will be looking at the will pays and win odds for clues to
see how live he is. My gut is that he’d have to run the race of his life to contend
with the two favorites.
A gun to my
head, I’d want Nations Pride (IRE). But there isn’t so I am going to lean on
Silver Knott (GB). He has more recency than his stablemate and is improving. I
think the morning line of 3-1 is fair.
Handigambling
Based on $100
wagered:
$40 win #8,
Silver Knott (GB). If I get 2-1 in the win pool, I’ll show a small profit.
Anything higher is gravy.
$60 straight
exacta #8 Silver Knott (GB) over #9 Nation’s Pride (IRE). That exacta is most
likely in the 5-1 range and it’s my only chance to make some money is to beat
the big favorite. I don’t think two horses will beat him.
A saver
exacta is not for me in this situation. An 9-8 exacta will be way over bet for
my taste.
Good Luck!
