Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Stephen Foster Handicap (G1)

 Seeking Value in Loaded Stephen Foster

By: The Turk, ThoroFan Handicapper 

 

Sierra Leone: Photo Credit Mark Abraham

                                                        Welcome Friends to The Turk Blog, now in our 18th year.  I'd like to thank the good people of The Thorofan for allowing me to share my thoughts with you today. 

While only a seven horse field, with one horse, Ashcroft, being a cut well below, the other six, wow:  All six combine for $25.9 MM in career earnings, a Breeders' Cup Classic Winner, a Kentucky Derby Winner, a Blue Grass Winner and a Dubai World Cup.  That's a pretty impressive field.  

Let's take a deeper dive into the field and look at some video as well.  

Oaklawn Handicap G2;  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 19 April 2025

The Churchill Downs G1; 7f on slop; 3 May 2025

 

The "Hollywood" Gold Cup G2; 1 1/4 Miles on Fast Dirt; 26 May 2025

 

New Orleans Classic G2; 1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 22 March 2025

 

Blame G3;  1 1/8 Miles on Fast Dirt; 31 May 2025

 

Clark Handicap G2; 1 1/8 on Fast Dirt; 29 November 2024 

 

Dubai World Cup G1; 1 1/4 Miles Fast Dirt (LH)

 

So what to do with this?  I'll be honest, I'm not sure without seeing the toteboard odds.  I'm leaning towards Sierra Leone OVER First Mission and Skippylongstocking.  4 OVER 1 and 3, a $2 Dollar bet for $4.  

Nothing exciting, just my thoughts of what might have value.  

Have fun friends, Turk Out.  

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Ohio Derby (G3)

 Digging for Gold in Ohio Derby

By: Stuart Marc deVoe, ThoroFan Handicapper

 

Now that the Triple Crown races are in the rear-view mirror, we can all exhale and sort out the rest of the 3-year-old crop. It is clear that the top three of the division (Sovereignty, Journalism & Baeza) may be superior animals not only in this year but in many others as well. But the good news for the rest of them is that there is plenty of money to be run in different Derbies around the country. 

This weekend, we stop in North Randall, home of Thistledown, to run the Ohio Derby (G3). $500k is on the line and if you have a 3-year-old that can run a bit, that’s plenty of reasons to ship in and see what happens. That’s not to say that some of the locals won’t take a swing as well.

The Ohio Derby is featured as race 12, the last of the day, with a 6:20 PM post time. The track will be fast. 

1. Brereton’s Baytown (30-1)  Would move up on an off-track as his only two wins in 13 starts came in mud or slop. Looks over his head.   TOSS

2. Chunk of Gold (7-2)  Hinted at ability down at the Fair Grounds over the winter, hitting the board in the two Derby preps offered. He earned his right to run the 1^st Saturday in May and, for the most part, had a decent trip and finished mid-pack. These waters may be more friendly.   CONTENDER

3. Capo Luca (10-1)  Rides a three-race win streak into this G3 affair while beating up on rivals that would have no chance today. I applaud the connections for taking a shot here, and perhaps he can get a slice. OUTSIDER

4. McAfee (3-1)  Ships in for cagey connections after competing in some graded events in NY. He looks on the improve and has Hall of Famer Johnnie V in the boot. I question the strength of those races on the whole, but I do like his improving pattern. CONTENDER

5. Extradition (20-1)  Was beaten by Capo Luca as the favorite in his last after winning by 5 lengths in the slop. Another local looking to take down the big prize. TOSS

6. Clever Again (9-5)  This $500k American Pharaoh colt was hinting at real ability dominating foes in the Hot Springs Stake at Oaklawn. His 101 Beyer was one of the better performances of any 3yo this spring. That led him to be 5-1 in the Preakness, where he took the worst of the bumper cars in upper stretch (you’ve seen it 100 times). I gave him a big shot in that race but the fact is, he was stopping badly before the incident and was a disappointing non-factor. Jose sees fit to give it another go and Steve wouldn’t put him out there if he didn’t think he could handle it. CONTENDER

7. Bohemian Style (30-1)  A recent claim out of a 12.5k N2L that he didn’t win. NOPE

8. Curvino (12-1)  Big $$ Mike ships in to ride for solid connections. That sounds interesting, but Santa Anita is closed, and Los Al hasn’t started so he’s got nothing going on anyway. One win in 12 starts doesn’t look sexy, but he has hit the board in 7 other tries. OUTSIDER

9. Master Controller (20-1)  Broke his maiden in his last sprinting at Churchill for a high tag with a big jump up in speed figures. He may be a thorn in Clever Again’s side early but I wonder if he can stretch out against better than he’s faced. OUTSIDER

10. Mo Plex (6-1)  Another shipper coming from NY who has been very useful, earning about 10x his auction price. A G3 winner and G1 placed at 2. He won the Bay Shore sprinting in his last and looks to stretch out around 2 turns for the first time. His outside post projects a wide stalking trip. He’ll need to take a step forward again and race dynamics stack against him. OUTSIDER

SUMMARY:  

I think the best animal in this race is Clever Again. His Oaklawn races were very impressive. Frankly, I’m not sure what to make of his Preakness, but I expected a lot more. I think he gets pressed today from Master Controller and Mo Plex right from go. He’ll get no breathers and given his potential short price, he is probably a bet against. 

Chunk of Gold sits a perfect trip and should get 1^st run on the leaders. If McAffee takes another step forward, he should be right there, too. As a longshot, I’d take the streaking Capo Luca to hit the board. 

THE BET:  (based on $100 wagered)

$50 win Chunk of Gold

$25 exacta Chunk of Gold/McAfee

$10 exacta box Chunk of Gold/McAffee

$5 trifecta straight Chunk of Gold/McAfee/Capo Luca

Good Luck!

 

Handicapper's Corner: 2025 Delaware Oaks (G3)

 Delaware Oaks goes to the South

By: Michael Amo, ThoroFan handicapper

 

Delaware Park hosts one of their top cards of the meet anchored by The Delaware Oaks (G3) with a purse of $300,000. 

There is a slight chance of rain at post time, but hopefully not enough to affect the outcome. Nine 3-year-old fillies are entered to race 8.5 furlongs for a share of the $300,000 purse. Based on Morning Line Odds it looks like a competitive race with only two look out of it. 

Carded as race 9 of 10, post time is 4:51 PM ET. Lets take a look at the field.

 

1.     Kinzie Queen (McKinzie) Ran well in Grade II last out, finishing third. Alvarado returns for a win in a Grade II contest. The closing running style suggests starting from the one hole is not the best. Yet, it can close as fast as any others. Alvarado must get her clear in the stretch to do her running. Big hurdle.

2.   Late Nite Call (Audible) Ran wire-to-wire last out in non-winners of one race. Steps to graded company. Should try to set the pace, hoping for a piece at the wire against these. Will she scratch?

3.   Complexity Jane (Complexity) Has been on the lead in the last two races and will try to do that again, assuring a quick pace. Working bullets for this race. Stepping up into grade company may be too much to ask.

4.   Margie’s Intention (Honor A.P.) won the Black-eyed Susan (GII) last out at Pimlico. Closed with a rush over a sloppy track. Adding 4 pounds for this race. Looks like her race to lose.

5.   Paris Lily (City of Light) The strongest front runner in the group, with Rosario riding her again. Just missed in the Black-eyed Susan last out by ¾ of a length, skimming the rail on a sloppy track to Margie’s Intention. Gets the benefit of a weight shift this time. May make amends.

6.   Cassiar (City of Light) Paid $400,000 for her in the August 2023 sales. Coming slowly to racing with two wins in three starts. The third place finish came in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (GII). She should be very competitive with these with a burst of speed at the end.

7.   Fondly (Upstart) First two starts of her career suggested she would be a good one. Tried the grade one Kentucky Oaks and was given a lesson by Good Cheer. Should be positioned right to make her move in the stretch. Rested and ready to see if she handles this level. Can Irad position her for the win?

8.   Dyna Soar (Summer Front) Took her six times to break her maiden. Not a good sign. Trying graded company for the first time. Would need to show me more before I go to the window.

9.   Whatintheliteral (Lord Nelson) Has raced in four graded stakes races, including a grade one. Didn’t show if she belonged there and maybe here. Working bullets. Trainer and jockey pairing could make the difference. “Don’t bet on it.”

The Delaware Oaks is a balanced race in terms of form, speed, and class. 

Late Night Call is entered in this race and the Delaware Derby against 10 colts at 20-1 odds. Why? If her conditioners think she is that good and they keep her in the Oaks should we be concerned? Although a front runner, she doesn’t show any standout strengths. If she scratches from the Oaks pace setting will be owned by Paris Lily (5). If she doesn’t scratch, it seems more likely that she may force the early pace. If so, the likely winner could be Magie’s Intention (4). I am assuming she doesn’t scratch.

Here is how I think they will finish:

4. Magie’ Intentions (5-2)

5. Paris Lily (9-2)

6. Cassiar (6-1)

7. Fondly (7-2) 

Handigamble

1.   $20 win and $40 to place on Maggie’s Intention  (#4) = $60.00

2.   $1 Trifecta Box   #4, #5, #6, and #7 = $24.00

3.   $1 Trifecta Key   #4 with #5,#6,#7 and with #5, #6, #7 = $6

4.   $10 to win on #5 = $10